Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

Also, the trend seems to be the precip being in the cold a little longer. I don't expect any winter weather with the next system, but it's looking like it will be closer.

Sunday is going to be a nasty day either way.

[orangeblood]

Gfs and euro are both crazy. They have cold air that rivals stuff we had in february (though no real mechanism to drive it as far south). It looks like the arctic has changed it's address to middle Canada and the northern plains of the U.S!

That record breaking cold in Alaska a couple of weeks ago had to go somewhere and it looks like its heading towards the central US

Sunday night - Monday morning needs to be closely watched for winter precip across west central into north central Texas...nothing significant yet but that could change if gulf moisture has time to get involved after the early weekend system passes through.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So if I'm not mistaken, with that 0z Euro run, there's clearly plenty of cold abound, but as someone mentioned, no real mechanism to bring it down this direction. Is this when we'd like to see one of those ridges out over the northeastern Pacific to funnel some of that Alaska cold down here?

Also, with 500 mb maps, they don't show moisture, do they? In other words, we'd need to combine those with an 850 mb map to see if we're going to hit the sweet spot of cold and moisture?

If I'm wrong about that, what sort of features on those maps indicate moisture?

Thanks again!

Cheers,
Cameron

[gboudx]

I'm just glad to see the consistency with the precip. We need several more episodes of the amount of precip the models are showing to get the lakes back up to conservation pool levels. Any wintry precip would just be the cherry on top at this point for me. I'd hate to see what next summer will look like if we don't get some drought relief before then.

[Ntxw]

So if I'm not mistaken, with that 0z Euro run, there's clearly plenty of cold abound, but as someone mentioned, no real mechanism to bring it down this direction. Is this when we'd like to see one of those ridges out over the northeastern Pacific to funnel some of that Alaska cold down here?

Also, with 500 mb maps, they don't show moisture, do they? In other words, we'd need to combine those with an 850 mb map to see if we're going to hit the sweet spot of cold and moisture?

If I'm wrong about that, what sort of features on those maps indicate moisture?

Thanks again!

Cheers,
Cameron

If you have basic knowledge of wavelengths (ridges and troughs) the 500mb maps makes it easier. The map shows mostly upper level winds and not moisture which tend to drive the weather. Its one continuous loop around the earth. Common knowledge where there's a ridge (warm air most likely) there will be an equally trough- cold air (stronger one is the stronger the other adjacent to will be). A ridge up the West coast through NW Canada is our favorable position if you like cold. And if it goes up into the Arctic circle watch out!

Moisture is usually found in the 700mb (mid levels and usually represents higher clouds) and 850mb maps all the way down to the surface.

To Donwrk's comment: It's throughout next week beginning this weekend. It's not one punch of cold air but several. The 12z euro would certainly raise some eyebrows. Everything is still fluent and can change in a dime, December definitely coming in with a roar!



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[orangeblood]

You're right Ntxw, the 12Z Euro does show you the potential this kind of pattern has....if the energy hanging back in the southwest consolidates with the energy coming out of the northwest flow you have the potential for a very strong upper level low forming over the southern plains with plenty of cold air to work with. I haven't gone back to look that closely at it but it somewhat reminds me of the pattern that evolved into the Christmas eve 09' blizzard - the difference being there isn't the kind of Atlantic blocking going on this time around (+NAO).

[HockeyTx82]

Just curious, anyone hear from our Pro Mets? I was hoping some of them might start chiming in on the upcoming weather.

[gboudx]

Just curious, anyone hear from our Pro Mets? I was hoping some of them might start chiming in on the upcoming weather.

jeff sent an email update yesterday, but I would say it's outdated at this point, due to todays model data. If he sends another update, I'll copy/paste here if no one beats me to it.

[iorange55]

Just came in from a very nice hike and was thinking, "This sure would be a nice view with some snow." and now I see the new Euro run.

All hope is not lost.

[Turtle]

Just came in from a very nice hike and was thinking, "This sure would be a nice view with some snow." and now I see the new Euro run.

All hope is not lost.

Any link to the euro? I've been hearing how it's really showing cold over the past few pages.

[iorange55]

Just came in from a very nice hike and was thinking, "This sure would be a nice view with some snow." and now I see the new Euro run.

All hope is not lost.

Any link to the euro? I've been hearing how it's really showing cold over the past few pages.

Just look above, few posts up. The new developments are more about the upcoming storm system.

[Portastorm]

Here's the link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS has backed off of the cold some over the next few days.....They did have our highs in the low 40's on Friday and now have us at low 50's. They are maintaining all liquid precip through early next week. Hope they are wrong.

The only thing better than snow and ice is snow and ice on the weekend when I don't have to drive.

[Portastorm]

Geez Louise ... I didn't even see the 12z Canadian until now (saw JB honking about it on Twitter). If that were to verify, we might even see some wintry precip in the central Texas area and certainly the Hill Country by next Tuesday or so. Guess they don't call it the Crazy Canadian for nothing!

Link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[vbhoutex]

Geez Louise ... I didn't even see the 12z Canadian until now (saw JB honking about it on Twitter). If that were to verify, we might even see some wintry precip in the central Texas area and certainly the Hill Country by next Tuesday or so. Guess they don't call it the Crazy Canadian for nothing!

Link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[Rgv20]

Looks like the Panhandle is going to be in for some fun weather! 18zNAM is very aggressive forecasting up to 9'' of snow...the 12ECMWF is forecasting anywhere from 1-3'' of snow thru Saturday evening.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
342 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES INCLUDING
AMARILLO WHILE MAINLY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST PANHANDLES.
SOME SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL END SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO 20S. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM UP WITH 30S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...30S
ON FRIDAY...30S TO 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY CONCERNING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS SO PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA...
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOLLOWING NWS AMARILLO ON
FACEBOOK...OR THROUGH YOUR PREFERRED MEDIA OUTLET.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Awfully quiet in here.

No discussion of the 00Z model runs?

[Ntxw]

^ GFS is rolling and the other globals won't finish for another 2+ hours.

FW put something out that is unusual for them to this early in the game I'd think. Though I do agree these types of air masses tends to have a life of it's own.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

.UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING.

IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE WINTER ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A
FAVORABLE ONE TO GET SHALLOW COLD AIR DOWN HERE WHILE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS ONGOING ALOFT. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY NOW IS JUST HOW COLD WILL
THIS AIR MASS BE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY FORECASTS WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
FORECAST BY THE 0Z NAM ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NW COUNTIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS DOES NOT LEAVE MUCH ROOM FOR ERROR.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Ah!!! So they start rolling at 0Z, but take several hours?

[Turtle]

I think they take like 1 hour. Every few minutes they upload the next 'set' of hours all the way to 384 hours.

And thank you iorange 55 and Portastorm for the euro help!