Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE 24-36
HOURS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE WEAKNESS
THAT IS LEFT BEHIND WITH WEAK 500MB TROUGHING FORECAST ALOFT LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF WEAK PVA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY.
STABILITY INDICES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT TREND TOWARD A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN STABILITY DURING THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WE BE AVAILABLE THIS WEEKEND SO WILL TAKE THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND GO WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND VCSH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 15 KTS OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 84 / 60 30 20 40
STT 75 85 76 85 / 40 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

The cold front and the associated high pressure have produced very cold minimum temperatures and even cold maximum in Central America especially in the northern part of the region, some places experienced their coldest highs in months or even in more than a year. These are the temperatures registered yesterday (November 28):

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F) Coldest since October 24
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 14.2°C (57.6°F) Coldest since January 15
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.1°C (46.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 0.7°C (33.3°F) Coldest since March 24
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F) Coolest since February 26
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F) Coldest since February 13
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.1°C (68.2°F) Coolest since October 22
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.3°C (54.1°F) Coldest for 2011, coldest since December 9 2010
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F) Coldest for 2011
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST WED NOV 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DEPARTING MID TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AND ELONGATED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE COMBINE
WITH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE THESE
CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES
DURING THE WEEKEND...AS NEXT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE FA. BUT...OVERALL AIR MASS APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER STABLE AND
SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...S0 DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 72 / 20 20 20 30
STT 86 74 85 72 / 20 10 10 20

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of yesterday, called it the black Tuesday, as... i've seen the toons of water spreading Basse-Terre! That was so impressive...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 148184.php

Weather

Too much water, and then... more enough

M.A. France-Antilles Guadeloupe30.11.2011

The commune of Gourbeyre including known to large landslides.

Rain slowed the production of drinking water. Several municipalities are - or will be - private water.

Le Gosier dry. Or rather, the gullet soaked, but dry tap. Capesterre-Belle-water will likely follow, but also the Abymes, Goyave, Sainte-Anne, Saint-François, mould and La Désirade. The General of the water, Cape Excellence and the SIAEAG held to prevent their subscribers in advance of these very probable disturbance, win "across the great land".

The reason? Rain swells rivers and access to various points of capture is made particularly difficult. These river water intakes are, for some, obstructed by various obstacles brought by the flood. Moreover, water that successfully pass these plugs is extremely responsible in sediments. Let us be clear: muddy. It is therefore difficult to make it potable. Treatment takes much more time than usual. And during this time, the population does not reduce consumption. It's the old problem of calculation asked school children once: a tub of 100 litres, which is open, allowed to escape 20 litres per minute. During this time, a tap pours 12 litres per minute. How long will the bath to be empty...

Some time, said Fernand Reynaud, but it will be empty, unless... Unless each reasons its consumption. Or unless bad weather stop.

For now, the only satisfied with this situation are some schoolchildren. Precautionary principle requires, gullet and Basse-Terre including, mayors yesterday took the decision to close schools at noon, because they could not provide them water.
Sweepers

Southern Basse-Terre was particularly affected, notably in Basse-Terre and Trois-Rivières (see page 8). Baillif, a dozen houses and a school were slightly flooded. To Gourbeyre, RD 7 was cut some time between Gros Morne Dolé and les amours basin: the tree which was lying in the road to due be sawed-off. Same topo old inhabitants where a tree has disrupted traffic on the RN2. Some roads were flooded in Saint-Claude (bridge of the Galleon and Matouba Ford) and Baillif (father Labat Tower) without that so the circulation is cut off.

The good news is that time, on Wednesday, will be more lenient. The alert was lifted yesterday evening. The situation worsens again from the afternoon of Thursday.


-Impressive rollups

Weather France provided impressive records. Accumulations of rain reached 250 mm to Marie-Galante, 300 mm on the Montsoufriere volcano and its slope, 200 on Saint-Claude, Capesterre, Trois-Rivières and Le Gosier, Basse-Terre (including 95 in 3 hours yesterday morning) 175 mm and 150 mm for the heights of Petit-Bourg and guava as well as the great Fund.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST WED NOV 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TROF PATTERN WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARY NEXT WEEK WHILE
AT THE SFC WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS
THE NW ATLC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO START THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE NERLY WITH TIME AS LOW PRES NE OF THE LEEWARDS PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE OVERNIGHT
SO EXPECT TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH
COAST. STILL SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION XPCD TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH BUT MAJOR DRYING IS FCST AFTER THU WITH PWAT FCST TO
DROP TO NEAR 0.7 INS ACCORDING TO 12Z GFS. HAVE REMOVED POPS
COMPLETELY FROM THE FCST FOR INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN SUCH A DRY AIR MASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON MON AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AND UPPER TROUGH
ESTABLISHES AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.



&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH SAT THEN SEAS BUILD AGAIN SUN ON
NORTH SWELLS. SCA LIKELY FOR AMZ710.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 76 82 / 30 30 10 10
STT 78 85 78 85 / 30 30 10 10

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Hey folks, looks like that wet weather conditions should return in the Eastern Carib Thursday night ending Sunday given our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe in their latest weather forecast. They anticipate that we should deal with numerous strong showers and tstorms beginning tommorow night with an increasing trend Friday and Saturday. Hope nothing more after this copious amounts of water that's too more now.

[Macrocane]

COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR REGISTERED ON NOVEMBER 29 IN SOME CENTRAL AMERICAN LOCATIONS

Since Monday cooler than normal temperatures have been registered in most of Central America. Yesterday (November 29) was one of the coldest and in some places was THE coldest day of the year, both highs and lows have been much cooler than normal even in Panama. These are the temperatures:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 16°C (61°F) Coldest for 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 12.9°C (55.2°F) Coldest for 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F) Coldest for 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.5°C (34.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.4°C (59.7°F) Coldest since March 23
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.4°C (41.7°F) Coldest since March 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.1°C (52.0°F) Coldest for 2011

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F) Coolest since October 22
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F) Coldest for 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 25.4°C (77.7°F) Coolest since October 19
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F) Coldest for 2011
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.2°C (79.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.1°C (73.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.7°C (54.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F) Coldest for 2011
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

Wow Macrocane,those are very cold temperatures for Central America standards.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU DEC 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ELONGATED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE COMBINE WITH AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE THESE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF NEXT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
AIR MASS COULD BE EVEN DRIER AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY THAN IT WILL
BE TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...BUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE AND MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED DAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS. FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHRA/LOW CLDS MAINLY
OVR LOCAL WATERS...SKC-PCLDY OVR LAND. PREVIOUS 01/00Z SOUNDING AND
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SUGGESTED MAINLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC-30K FEET OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING
OR OPERATIONAL HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL
FA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 6 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES SEA ARE EXPECTED TO START BUILDING AGAIN (THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY) BUT ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 75 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 73 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU DEC 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AXIS MOVING OVR PR/USVI EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADES
STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK UNDER A NARROW H5 RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.
LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES BUT BY SAT MOISTURE TOO SCANTY FOR ANY
CONVECTION.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUN FROM THE EAST AS
TRADES STRENGTHEN AND MID LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MON TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ON
TUE WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR NEXT WED.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO ISOLD SHRA/LOW CIGS...WHICH MAY AFFECT
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJPS TIL 22Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING OR OPERATIONAL HAZARDS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILD AGAIN ON SUN ON NNW AND NE SWELLS. WINDS ALSO
INCREASE AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI DEC 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SYNC WITH
ANOTHER MID LATITUDE TROUGH CARRYING A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL
JET JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND LATER PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC COASTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY...
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF 50 WEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO
FROM NAGUABO TO LUQUILLO...BUT A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPED THAT CAUSED
MOST SHOWERS TO FORM OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THE NORTH...AND
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTH...FORMING A WAKE BOUNDARY OF
CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS STILL BLOCKED IN THE VERTICAL BY A
STRONG CAP AROUND 12 TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...WITH FLOW THERE OPPOSITE
TO THAT OF THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 5 THOUSAND FEET.
THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM ITS
BASE NEAR 12 THOUSAND FEET TO ABOVE 40 THOUSAND FEET THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CAPPED AT 12 TO 15 THOUSAND
FEET...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FORM AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON OR
NEAR THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS THE REST OF THE DAY NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM SHOWED A
STRONG DIP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS A
WEAKER DIP ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE
THAT PEAKS ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LIKELY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE TROUGH...BETTER POPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
NAM...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF THE GFS GIVEN PREFERENCE.
HENCE WEAK CONVECTION UNDER A STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE PASSING
SHORT WAVES...AND THE JET...MENTIONED ABOVE...PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN MOISTURE OR A CHANGE OF
PATTERN AFTERWARD UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE... THAT IS SUPPOSED TO
FORM ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF 50 WEST...APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY 11 DECEMBER WITH MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AMOUNTS...AT LEAST TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...IF THE LOW DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE...SUCH A SOLUTION MUST BE REGARDED AS HAVING RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ABOVE
THE SFC BELOW 25K FT THRU 02/16Z. NO SIG FLYING HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OR EN ROUTE BETWEEN THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SETTLED BELOW 6 FEET FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN BOTH NORTH AND EAST
NORTHEAST SWELL ON SUNDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
GRADIENT MENTIONED ABOVE. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTING
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MODEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT 8 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT 8 FEET
IN THE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 20 10 10 20
STT 86 74 85 75 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI DEC 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 02/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 84 / 10 10 20 20
STT 74 86 75 85 / 10 10 20 40

[Gustywind]

METEO

Weekend in yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr02.12.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 148480.php

Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy.

A new mass of warm, moist air dates by South-East on the Lesser Antilles and will concern the Guadeloupe archipelago until Monday at least.Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy. Quiet periods are only short duration. Accumulations of rain of the order of 50 to 80 mm are possible on the next 24 hours. Precipitation should again intensify from Sunday afternoon and Monday.
There is a risk of flooding, landslides and sudden rise of streams and gullies. Given the intense rainy week episode, soils are fragile and difficult to absorb the new amounts of water. Caution is therefore advised.

[cycloneye]

METEO

Weekend in yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr02.12.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 148480.php

Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy.

A new mass of warm, moist air dates by South-East on the Lesser Antilles and will concern the Guadeloupe archipelago until Monday at least.Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy. Quiet periods are only short duration. Accumulations of rain of the order of 50 to 80 mm are possible on the next 24 hours. Precipitation should again intensify from Sunday afternoon and Monday.
There is a risk of flooding, landslides and sudden rise of streams and gullies. Given the intense rainy week episode, soils are fragile and difficult to absorb the new amounts of water. Caution is therefore advised.

Hopefully,no major flooding occurs in the butterfly island. Keep us informed.

[Gustywind]

METEO

Weekend in yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr02.12.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 148480.php

Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy.

A new mass of warm, moist air dates by South-East on the Lesser Antilles and will concern the Guadeloupe archipelago until Monday at least.Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy. Quiet periods are only short duration. Accumulations of rain of the order of 50 to 80 mm are possible on the next 24 hours. Precipitation should again intensify from Sunday afternoon and Monday.
There is a risk of flooding, landslides and sudden rise of streams and gullies. Given the intense rainy week episode, soils are fragile and difficult to absorb the new amounts of water. Caution is therefore advised.

Hopefully,no major flooding occurs in the butterfly island. Keep us informed.

yeah you're right seems that we're blessed but for what time again ? I will try Cycloneye if the threat is mecaning close to us.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

METEO

Weekend in yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr02.12.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 148480.php

Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy.

A new mass of warm, moist air dates by South-East on the Lesser Antilles and will concern the Guadeloupe archipelago until Monday at least.Tonight and the next night, the sky will remain overcast and rainy passages will more and more frequent, becoming locally supported and even stormy. Quiet periods are only short duration. Accumulations of rain of the order of 50 to 80 mm are possible on the next 24 hours. Precipitation should again intensify from Sunday afternoon and Monday.
There is a risk of flooding, landslides and sudden rise of streams and gullies. Given the intense rainy week episode, soils are fragile and difficult to absorb the new amounts of water. Caution is therefore advised.

Hopefully,no major flooding occurs in the butterfly island. Keep us informed.

yeah you're right seems that we're blessed but for what time again ? I will try Cycloneye if the threat is menacing close to us.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST SAT DEC 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD HISPANIOLA TODAY. A JET WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE DOWN STREAM
SIDE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 60 TO 70 KNOTS.
THE TROUGH WILL PASS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY WHILE WEAKENING AS A
RIDGE APPROACHES.

AT MID LEVELS...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THEREAFTER THROUGH SUNDAY 11 DECEMBER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST WHILE PERSISTING NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGS AREAS
OF MOISTURE THROUGH WITH NO ESPECIALLY DRY AREAS UNTIL EARLY NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER LATE EVENING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO THAT LEFT AT LEAST ONE TENTH INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS...MOST
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED FROM PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THERE IS LIKELY STILL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO SPAWN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME SOUNDERS IN ISABELA AND SAINT
CROIX SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 1.3 INCHES FOR
LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TO THE EAST AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO NORTH OF 20 NORTH. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND ONTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE THEN...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHEAST FLANKS OF THE LUQUILLO
RANGE. THIS MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES TO FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE GFS HAS ALSO BEEN
CONSISTENT ABOUT A VERY DRY SLOT COMING ACROSS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER SATURDAY...HOWEVER...THE MODEL HAS DROPPED
THE IDEA THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTER NEXT AFTER FORMING ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF 50 WEST. NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE.

BEST EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS EACH DAY.
AGAIN SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL EACH AFTERNOON AND THE
SOUTHWEST COASTAL PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR
AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFTER 03/16Z BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS IN SHRA. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO SIG FLYING HAZARDS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE NOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTH SWELL
ARRIVING AND EAST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET EXCEPT FOR ATLANTIC PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 10 20 20 50
STT 84 74 85 76 / 10 20 40 50

[cycloneye]

There was a 5.6 quake with epicenter east of Barbuda.See the details at Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread at geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2207088#p2207088

[cycloneye]

Interesting tidbits about how it has been in terms of rainfall in 2011 for San Juan,St Thomas and St Croix.

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...2011 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
FIFTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 80.24 INCHES OF RAIN.
IF WE WERE TO GET AVG RAINFALL THE REST OF THIS MONTH WHICH IS JUST
BELOW FIVE (5) INCHES 2011 WOULD STILL END AS THE FIFTH WETTEST.
9.26 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WHICH WAS LAST YEAR AND THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY ATTM.


AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST.THOMAS...2011
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 15TH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. AVG DECEMBER
RAINFALL IS 2.82 INCHES SO IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT 2011 COULD
FINISH AS THE TENTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

AT THE HENRY ROHLSEN ARPT IN CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...2011
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 15TH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD ALSO. AVG
DECEMBER RAINFALL IS 2.72 INCHES SO IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT 2011
COULD END AS THE NINTH OR TENTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT DEC 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ALL PUERTO RICO
TODAY. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN
IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE REPLACE BY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING ON
MONDAY...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE EAST. AT THIS MOMENT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW
FOR TOO MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION...AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST
MOVING. IN GENERAL...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WWD TO NEAR PR BY 12Z MON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHRAS/TSRA ACROSS THE USVI AND NORTHEAST PR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MVFR CIGS ARE XPCD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE TSRA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS/CB FOR THESE ARPTS. PR TERMINALS NOT LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
LEEWARDS/USVI THROUGH TUE WITH IMPROVING WX WED.