Texas Winter 2011-2012...

iorange55 · #521 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:27 am

orangeblood wrote:Yeah, one of the scenarios I was worried about with this system looks like it's coming to fruition...the upper level energy hangs back for too long and then gets sheared as it starts the move east across the southern plains. Looks like a light snow event Monday night into Tuesday for the metroplex westward but still a glimmer of hope that this system doesn't get sheared as much as currently depicted.

A little snow is better than snow. Things can change fast (as we have seen just overnight) so there is still time for it to change.

It's nice to even be talking about a chance of snow this early in the season.

#522 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:27 am

Some positive news, the GFS has found energy, low pressure for the next system (one after early week) and maybe more moisture streaming up.

#523 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:42 am

Don't forget we still have the matter of a coastal low (or trough) forming, per the Canadian. That could be a precip producer come Monday, although it'll likely be more of a player for the southern half of the state as compared to you folks north of Waco.

That being said, I'm just looking at my cleats right now. Haven't put them on yet and not sure I will. I'll need more of a "threat" to compel me to such action as my backside still hurts from last winter season! :lol:

DonWrk · #524 Postby **DonWrk** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:49 pm

Will be interesting what the next few model runs bring us. Funny how the NAM said goodbye to the big snow storm for Oklahoma and the GFS pretty much said goodbye to any snow in Oklahoma or Texas.

SouthernMet · #525 Postby **SouthernMet** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:10 pm

12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOW ARRIVING THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY OF
THEM...INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLE ARE SHOWING A SLOWER TREND ON
THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR AND ANY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIXTURE ON MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY MIXTURE OR TRANSITION UNTIL LATE IN DAY
MONDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE THE NEW DATA AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

As we get closer to the event, models are locking in on a later transitition, if any. This is going to be a close one, as temps will be key by just a few degrees.

#526 Postby **gpsnowman** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:47 pm

Having been on this forum about a year now I've noticed these models show a nice winter storm 4 or 5 days out only to have them draw back a little a couple days out. Then they play catch up to what they were showing originally. I believe this storm will be close regerdless but is there truth to the models doing this so close the actual event?

SouthernMet · #527 Postby **SouthernMet** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:53 pm

12z NAM Intresting...

Hour 48 Sooo close, looks like heavy precip for DFW with freeze line just west, even with temps above freezing for the majority of the event (for DFW) 12z NAM could have us with heavy rain mixing with sleet. As we have seen before - when temps are just above freezing at the sfc and rain is coming down heavy, there is a tendency to mix with sleet under the heavier bands. The question is, how long will the precip stick around. If it tapers off quickly monday, there will be little to no transition to mixed winter precip, if it sticks around till monday evening (moisture available??) then things could get intresting. : http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06048.gif
Canadian Very Similar : http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06060.gif

1-4" Accumulation from Gainesville to Graham(per 12z NAM): http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

#528 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:48 pm

Just as an FYI..NWS in Corpus changed the criteria for Wind Chill Advisory and Wind Chill Warning.

000
NOUS44 KCRP 292210
PNSCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-302215-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
410 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERION

EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS HAS MODIFIED ITS CRITERION FOR ISSUING A WIND CHILL WARNING AND
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. CUSTOMER FEEDBACK CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AND THEIR CRITERION FOR ISSUANCE INDICATED THAT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERION WAS TOO COLD...AND WAS NOT INDICATIVE
OF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THAT COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR RESIDENTS
NOT USED TO ABNORMALLY LOW TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NOTABLE WINDS.

ALSO...PREVIOUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERION WAS SET ON
STANDARD NATIONAL VALUES. THESE VALUES ARE USED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MUCH COLDER WEATHER...AND WHOSE RESIDENTS ARE MORE ACCUSTOMED TO
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW FREEZING. CONVERSELY...WIND CHILL READINGS
WELL BELOW FREEZING ARE MUCH MORE INFREQUENT IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND
RESIDENTS NOT USED TO OR PREPARED FOR ABNORMALLY LOW WIND CHILLS
COULD EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTIES...IF NOT POSE A THREAT TO HEALTH
ESPECIALLY IF BEING EXPOSED TO THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.

THEREFORE...IN ORDER TO PROVIDE A BETTER PUBLIC SERVICE AND TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC SAFETY...THE FOLLOWING CRITERION WILL BE NOW USED FOR ISSUING
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES:

WIND CHILL WARNING: WHEN WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE...BOTH
ANTICIPATED FOR TWO HOURS OR MORE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY: WHEN WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
25 DEGREES AND 16 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT INCLUSIVE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE...BOTH ANTICIPATED FOR TWO HOURS OR
MORE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

WIND CHILL WATCH: WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES TO MEET WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

THESE WIND CHILL PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED UNDER THE
FOLLOWING PRODUCT ID:

WMO ID: WWUS74 KCRP
MND HEADER: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
PIL: SATNPWCRP

NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED BY NWS PARTNERS AND SUBSCRIBERS IN ORDER TO RECEIVE
THESE PRODUCTS.

FOR QUESTIONS CONCERNING THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT:

JOHN METZ
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
300 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
(361) 289-0959 (EXTENSION 223)
JOHN.METZ@NOAA.GOV

$$

GW

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CRP&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

SouthernMet · #529 Postby **SouthernMet** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:32 pm

18z NAM also close.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06042.gif

DonWrk · #530 Postby **DonWrk** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 4:18 pm

Well I see NWS took out all possibilities of wintry precip out of the forecast for my area.

EDIT: Here is a screenshot of what the NWS facebook said.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

iorange55 · #531 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:28 pm

18z gfs shows a couple of chances of "wintry weather" in North Texas in the next week or so. Moisture looks limited right now, but they seem to be picking up a little more each run.

MSUDawg · #532 Postby **MSUDawg** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:28 pm

Grrr....I KNOW I KNOW... much wasnt predicted... and its still 36 hours out..but
I got excited when I saw Mixed Sleet/SNOW on Sunday Night,40% chance of snow on Monday, and 20% of Snow on Monday Night...I thought things would work out. Now 3 hours later, NOAA has removed all mention of snow...guess it is following the trending of the last model that shows warmer air from the low.

I'm midway in the swing...will I score or land on my backside??
Someone get me a pillow.

Turtle · #533 Postby **Turtle** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:58 pm

Wow the 18Z GFS is looking mighty wet. I think the last time I saw 4"+ in a few days was a year ago!

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #534 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:11 pm

Just nearing an inch of rain today in Richardson. Badly needed, like everywhere else in Texas. I'd be thrilled to see 3 more over the next 36 hours.

iorange55 · #535 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:20 pm

0Z NAM coming out. Dumping a lot of cold rain on us sunday night into monday.

Man, if these models could be off by 100 miles or so. It would have been a nice snow storm.

#536 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:53 pm

iorange55 wrote:0Z NAM coming out. Dumping a lot of cold rain on us sunday night into monday.

Man, if these models could be off by 100 miles or so. It would have been a nice snow storm.

All hope lies on the ejecting last shortwave. Models have not drilled the cold air through so the moist air is not far away. If it can stay cut off and the gulf remains open there's always that outside chance!

#537 Postby **gboudx** » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:01 pm

The Texas drought map is gonna look different next time it comes out. The DFW metro may not be under drought conditions any longer. But I don't expect the Stage 3 water restrictions to ease until Lake Lavon increases about 4 feet.

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #538 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:22 am

We are probably at 2" already in the Lavon drainage this evening. I don't know how that translates to the overall lake level, but it can't hurt.

#539 Postby **gboudx** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:38 am

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:We are probably at 2" already in the Lavon drainage this evening. I don't know how that translates to the overall lake level, but it can't hurt.

The monitoring site is showing a steady increase in water level, but still at only 479'. Conservation pool level is 492'. Quite a ways to go, but it's a start.

#540 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 10:42 am

Not too impressed for any "significant" winter weather in Texas (outside of the Panhandle) for the next few days, let alone next weekend. Nevertheless, if we can get this kind of pattern most of the winter (is there a way we can keep the MJO in phases 6-7-8??!!) ... the airmasses will eventually be colder and some fun may be had.

Meanwhile, coming up on almost 2 inches of glorious rainfall here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County, in the last few days.