Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

denton is down to 39f dewpoint 36 and north wind of 7. Come on, really all denton has to do is drop five degree's and i bet they start seeing a change over

Well, snow starts high up in the atmosphere. It could be 32 down here, but if it's not cold enough up there, you won't see any snow. I don't believe a change over will be happening anytime soon. We need the little magic line to move down, and it isn't showing that for another 24 hours or so.

If we see anything, it won't be 'til sometime late tomorrow and possibly into Tuesday morning, if there is more moisture to play with *fingers crossed*

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

denton is down to 39f dewpoint 36 and north wind of 7. Come on, really all denton has to do is drop five degree's and i bet they start seeing a change over

Well, snow starts high up in the atmosphere. It could be 32 down here, but if it's not cold enough up there, you won't see any snow. I don't believe a change over will be happening anytime soon. We need the little magic line to move down, and it isn't showing that for another 24 hours or so.

If we see anything, it won't be 'til sometime late tomorrow and possibly into Tuesday morning, if there is more moisture to play with *fingers crossed*

It'll be interesting to see what the FWNWS and surrounding offices say this afternoon. It will also be interesting to see if any watches or advisories are issued out west.

[iorange55]

It'll be interesting to see what the FWNWS and surrounding offices say this afternoon. It will also be interesting to see if any watches or advisories are issued out west.

I wouldn't expect anything. Considering it is only one model run, so far. Plus the amounts would be very light.

Looking at the wunderground map. It has the 18z NAM showing sleet for a few hours before ending it with flurries towards the end of the event.

It would be all snow from Decatur, to abilene, and lubbock.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It'll be interesting to see what the FWNWS and surrounding offices say this afternoon. It will also be interesting to see if any watches or advisories are issued out west.

I wouldn't expect anything. Considering it is only one model run, so far. Plus the amounts would be very light.

Looking at the wunderground map. It has the 18z NAM showing sleet for a few hours before ending it with flurries towards the end of the event.

It would be all snow from Decatur, to abilene, and lubbock.

I should have been more specific when I said watches/advisories, I meant for the snow tonight out west; the Lubbock to Abilene area.

[Jarodm]

If there is a lull between tonights event and our current rain wouldnt that give time for our atmosphere to dry out and aid in wet bulb effect?

18z gfs not on board it dosent even show freezing temps 39 hours out and no snow

[iorange55]

18Z GFS may be just a hair colder. But, still not showing a lot of moisture.

So we have the NAM giving us some sleet/flurry action.

The last run of the Euro shows the moisture but keeps it out by Abilene and then lifts it north into Oklahoma. And, the GFS hardly shows any moisture at all.

We'll see what the models say tonight.

[Portastorm]

Amarillo and Lubbock NWS offices have hoisted Winter Weather advisories starting tonight through Tuesday morning.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Does anybody know what the rapid refresh model is showing in regards to tonight's event?

[TrekkerCC]

Does anybody know what the rapid refresh model is showing in regards to tonight's event?

If we took the 21z Rapid Refresh (not the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) Model verbatim, then it appears like west/northwest/and some places north of Dallas will get some snow. It is probably a bit optimistic, but I think spots maybe north or northwest of DFW might get some snow. Could DFW have brief periods of wintery precipitation (sleet) on Monday? Possibly - but probably only a 10% chance. See 21z RR run here: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop. ... =q3&wjet=1

While I'm not making a forecast per say, I'll add this anyway:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

edit: To add link to 21z RR run

[Jarodm]

i guess we are waiting for the nam to begin

[iorange55]

RR is pretty interesting. It seems like the GFS is definitely the quickest to shut off moisture. If the GFS is wrong, then it might be possible to see some flurries or very light snow.

Wait and see.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What's the website to view the latest RR, specifically the snowfall accumulations map? Thank you.

[Jarodm]

well this will be very intresting im watching temps closely they are begining to fall, also our dew points are lowering. Cant wait to see what the latest model guidance says hopefully we can get a change over monday morning, i can wish right lol. But perhaps it will come in colder.

[iorange55]

What's the website to view the latest RR, specifically the snowfall accumulations map? Thank you.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/


If you go there it has a lot of options.

00Z NAM has started...

Through 12hrs it has the magic line out around Weatherford? Perhaps. A lot more moisture out west. Abilene picking up heavy snow.

This looks interesting

[Jarodm]

it's coming in colder so far lets see what it dose with the precip

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

it's coming in colder so far lets see what it dose with the precip

It's dump some snow out west!

[Jarodm]

LOOK WHAT IT DOSE TO NORTH TEXAS AT 12 hours!

[iorange55]

This run is a big improvement.

Through 15hrs the magic line is basically on top of the Metroplex (perhaps a bit west) Moisture is still around. Probably a sleet/snow mix around DFW.

Areas out west would be seeing accumulating snowfall.

[Jarodm]

so do you think they will be changing there forecast soon based on new output? or do you think it will be snowing here in dfw before they say anything lol

[iorange55]

so do you think they will be changing there forecast soon based on new output? or do you think it will be snowing here in dfw before they say anything lol

Not sure. Probably wait and see what the GFS says.

I am still waiting to see if the NAM still shows the light moisture it was showing through 30+ hours. So far it is a good model run for snow lovers and Abilene would be the bulls eye.