Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Snowshoe]

looks like moisture is on the increase out west

Noticed the same thing around San Angelo, not sure if that is what's possible for us or not. The news Mets havent mentioned anything about that on the radar yet.

[somethingfunny]

You can see radar returns over DFW already, but I don't think anything is reaching the ground.

I went out to Decatur last night and it was amazing. I'll put together a story with some pictures I took after I get some sleep tonight.

[Jarodm]

well lets hope moisture and lift are on the increase as that low gets closer

[Ellsey]

Well we now have a wintry mix back in the forecast here. I actually did see a couple flurries earlier. I just happened to be looking in the right place at the right time though.

[Snowshoe]

Funny to see how Ron Jackson on fox 4 is uncertain when he is predicting the weather saying, " I can't rule out a few flurries or light snow tonight through tomorrow." I remember a few years back he said the same thing and said he wouldn't rule out a "few flurries" and we got an inch or two and a light dusting on the roads to where they canceled school. Just shows you how hard it is to predict winter weather spot on.

[Snowshoe]

Well we now have a wintry mix back in the forecast here. I actually did see a couple flurries earlier. I just happened to be looking in the right place at the right time though.

Would love to see some flurries comin down! Where are you getting your forecast from?

[iorange55]

Thinking a lot people will some flurries tonight. Going by the short range models, they look good for some flurries starting around 9ish or so.

RR is pretty aggressive with showing a light dusting for some. I'd be more comfortable with just saying flurries, though.

[Jarodm]

do you think collin county will get some?

[TrekkerCC]

After looking at the 20z HRRR, I see why the model is producing a inch of snow or so over the area (including the dusting in DFW area). Based on looking at the model simulated reflectivity, it forms a line of snow in the NW and travels SE (including the DFW area). Watch the radar for the next few hours to confirm that this feature will form/be as extensive as the HRRR predicts, but if it does develop, we certainly could see a dusting to an inch of snow in places. Link to the 20z HRRR loop of sim reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Not doing a forecast per say, but I'll include this anyway out of caution:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[iorange55]

do you think collin county will get some?

Yeah, the further north the better


Edit to add that I just saw two flurries or pieces of lint

[Ellsey]

Well we now have a wintry mix back in the forecast here. I actually did see a couple flurries earlier. I just happened to be looking in the right place at the right time though.

Would love to see some flurries comin down! Where are you getting your forecast from?

I'm getting it from NWS Fort Worth.

[Jarodm]

do you think collin county will get some?

Yeah, the further north the better


Edit to add that I just saw two flurries or pieces of lint

thats so funny you said that because just when i posted i stepped outside in allen tx and we have flurries coming down! lol how are flurries coming down at 37 degrees?

[Ntxw]

There is already some reflectivity activity showing up NW of the region, nothing is being reported though likely due to the dry air but if more forms it could help saturate. So far is going in line with the HRRR.



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[iorange55]

Not lint. Getting light flurries

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Which areas might see an inch?

EDIT: It appears all locations near and north of the Metroplex according the the RR model?

[Jarodm]

really radar is the only thing we can watch

[orangeblood]

The Dfw area just doesn't appear it will get cold enough for any accumulating snow or even a dusting for that matter...too light and will melt on contact!

[iorange55]

do you think collin county will get some?

Yeah, the further north the better


Edit to add that I just saw two flurries or pieces of lint

thats so funny you said that because just when i posted i stepped outside in allen tx and we have flurries coming down! lol how are flurries coming down at 37 degrees?

It can be above freezing and still snowing. Remember, snow starts up in the atmosphere. Just like we can get rain when it's below 32 at the surface (freezing rain.)

[Jarodm]

The Dfw area just doesn't appear it will get cold enough for any accumulating snow or even a dusting for that matter...too light and will melt on contact!

I dont know temps are dropping quick since the sun has set

[iorange55]

Temp at my house has dropped to 35 and dew point is at 31. About two degrees colder than what it was supposed to be at this time.

We'll see what happens. I'd be happy with just seeing a nice heavy flurry storm.