Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

On a sidenote,I added to the long first post of this thread a web cam from San Juan and the Aruba/Curacao radar. If anyone has more cams or radars that are not yet posted,dont hesitate and bring them here and I will add those.

To add more web cams to that long first post of this thread,I added another web cam from Grand Cayman island.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

Another round of rain is expected this week for the Eastern Caribbean so watch for that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SUN DEC 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL INCREASE AS A JET FORMS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS ON
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FOLLOWING WILL PASS NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND DISPLACE THIS LOW TO JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT TROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW NEAR 55 WEST
THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE MID
LATITUDE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IS SHUNTED TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHED PUERTO RICO FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT SHRIVELED AS THEY NEARED THE SHORELINE.
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
WERE ENCROACHING ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS
GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. THESE WERE
NEARING SAINT CROIX AS OF 09Z. STATIONS IN THE USVI WERE REPORTING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 6
AND 8 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAS A
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE
PROGRESS OF THIS MOISTURE AS FORECAST BY THE 3 MAJOR
MODELS...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS MOISTURE IS WEAK AS
INDICATED BY RATHER HIGH CEILINGS AND LOW TOPS SO HAVE NOT RAISED
POPS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY
ABOVE THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. THE NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL THE GENERAL CONTOURS OF THE
PRESSURE PATTERN SUGGEST THAT WHILE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF 64 WEST AND BY
MID WEEK NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 WEST KEEPING LOW
LEVEL FLOW NORTHEAST AND FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FORMATION OF THE
LOW TO THE EAST MID WEEK ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AND
PULLS IT AWAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY WELL SEEN AT 700 MB WHERE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB REMAIN BELOW 328
DEGREES KELVIN UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR THE USVI AND WHERE FLOW
FAVORS UP-SLOPE WINDS AND ONLY A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO CONVECTION.

THE NEW LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS NOW
BROUGHT BACK BY THE GFS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING
AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT THAT THIS SOLUTION MAY BE
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MODEL AND CANNOT BE TRUSTED AT THIS TIME.
THE PREVIOUS RUN SENT THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MIGRATION OF THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND SO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS FOR NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PR AND VI TAF
SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR AROUND TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFTER 04/16Z
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK IN SHRA. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SEAS THAT ARE TRENDING UP
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE
ALSO BEEN TRENDING UP FROM RUN-TO-RUN. THEREFORE AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE WARRANTED DESPITE SEAS
AS LOW AS 5 FEET AT BUOY 41043 LATELY. ADDITIONALLY SEAS AT BUOY
41046 WERE 9.8 FEET AT 04/09Z. THESE SEAS WERE ALSO FORECAST TO
REACH THE PASSAGES AFTER THE THIRD FORECAST PERIOD. THE WAVE WATCH
SHOWED SEAS PEAKING AT OUR OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS` BUOY ON TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST EXCEEDED 3
METERS ON EACH OF THOSE DAYS. SO EXPECT ROUGH ATLANTIC WATERS
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK. CARIBBEAN
CONDITIONS ARE BETTER.

NAVIGATION WILL BE MADE MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN
DIRECTION OF THE NORTH SWELL AND THE EASTERLY WIND WAVES...BOTH
WITH PERIOD FROM 8 TO 10 SECONDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 73 / 20 50 50 60
STT 85 75 84 75 / 40 50 50 40

[Macrocane]

December started very cold for Central America, these are the temperatures registered on December 1st, some of the locations registered their coldest temperatures since January or even the coldest of the year.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 15°C (59°F) Coldest for 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.3°C (48.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 14.6°C (58.3°F) Coldest since January 8
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.0°C (41.0°F) Coldest for 2011 in El Salvador, tied Janaury 6 and March 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F) Coldest since January 6
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F) Coldest since January 9
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.8°C (46.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

Later I will post the temperatures for December 2 and 3

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures on December 2, it was another cold day especially for Costa Rica.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 17°C (63°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.7°C (42.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.7°C (58.5°F) Coldest since March 11
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.0°C (70.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.3°C (61.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F) Coolest since October 15
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.3°C (72.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.3°C (75.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F) Coldest for 2011
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.5°C (68.9°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL WEAKEN OVR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WWD. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EWD. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS NOW SHOW UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS. WHILE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING FROM THE EAST AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CHANCES OF
PRECIP OVER PR OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON
TUE AS H5 COLD POOL OF -8C MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD PROVE
ENOUGH FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. BELIEVE SCT POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE.

H25 TROF AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BY 12Z WED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START BUILDING IN ON THU WITH RIDGE
AXIS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WX
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSTMS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR PR TERMINALS...DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE REMAIN TO THE EAST
WITH JUST SOME SCT SHRAS BUT PROB FOR MVFR CIGS APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM,

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO PULSES OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS
THAT WILL YIELD HIGH AND STEEP WAVES. HAVE RAISED SEAS TO 9FT
ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE
NEED TO EXPAND SCA`S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 82 / 40 50 40 40
STT 79 85 79 84 / 50 60 40 40

[Macrocane]

FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL AMERICA

A very few locations are able to go below 0°C (32°F) in Central America and yesterday Quetzaltenango in Guatemala experienced the frist freeze since April and the coldest temperature in the region since January 8, the minimum temperatures in the rest of Guatemala, in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica remained cold as well although the highs experienced an increase compared to previous days.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.5°C (52.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -2.0°C (28.4°F) COLDEST IN CENTRAL AMERICA SINCE JANUARY 8
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.4°C (47.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.9°C (60.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F) Coolest since October 18
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F) Warmest since November 3
Boquete, Panama 21.4°C (70.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The scattered showers persist today in the Eastern Caribbean so watch for some flooding.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON DEC 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SANTO DOMINGO AT 05/12Z
WILL BE FOUND OVER PUERTO RICO BY TONIGHT AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE LOW WHICH CUTS
OFF TONIGHT WILL EXTEND WEST SOUTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. A FLAT RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
BECOMING ORIENTED MORE EAST WEST WITH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GULF MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
PERSIST IN THE CONVERGENCE. LOW PRESSURE STILL DEPICTED FORMING
NEAR 18 NORTH 55 WEST ON TUESDAY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN WEST...BECOMING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER FORMATION HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND THE WATERS EAST OF FAJARDO. NEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED
JUST EAST OF SAINT CROIX AND EXTEND TOWARD BEEF ISLAND. LITTLE
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED AND IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT OVER TWO INCHES
HAVE FALLEN IN THE COCO BEACH AREA. RAIN THERE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 6 AM AST. MOISTURE IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WET VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
WHERE CONVERGENCE IN THE TROUGH IS OCCURRING WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE MOIST AREAS. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE BEST
MOISTURE INTO PUERTO RICO UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT
THIS WELL. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DUE TO THE STRONG CAP OF DRY
AIR ABOVE 12 TO 14 KFT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
THERE. HOWEVER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT
SOME SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
GENERATED BY THE GFS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
STRENGTHENING MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO NOT SHOW THIS LOW. AT PRESENT CANNOT RULE
FORMATION OUT...THOUGH IT MAY BE DUE TO A MODEL WEAKNESS...SINCE
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND CONSIDERABLE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
THE AREA OF FORMATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING AND POPS HAVE BEEN MODERATED
FOR THAT REASON. THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE ISOLATED
IF ANY SINCE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH PERIOD...500
MB COLD POOL ALSO HAS PRODUCED LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION SO FAR AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK.
EARLY MORNING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK.
THAT AND CONTINUED WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY FOR THESE WATERS. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 50 50 50 40
STT 85 74 86 76 / 50 30 40 40

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

With the rain that has fallen so far today,2011 is now the second most wet year on record, completing a back to back years of record rainfall as 2010 was #1 ever in rainfall with 87 inches.

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 2.80 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE SJU LMM
INTL ARPT SO FAR TODAY AND STILL RAINING. WHILE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
FOR ANY DAY IN DEC IT IS STILL A LONG WAYS FROM BREAKING THE DAILY
RECORD OF 3.41 INCHES SET BACK IN 1915. THE 2.80 INCHES TODAY NOW
BRINGS THE TOTAL FOR THE YEAR TO 83.04 INCHES PUTTING 2011 AS THE
SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1931 WHEN
83.30 HAD FALLEN TO THE SAME DATE AND 0.83 INCHES AHEAD OF 2010.
IF AVG RAINFALL WERE TO FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS YEAR (4.06
INCHES) 2011 WOULD FINISH AS THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. 2011
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON DEC 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE EASTERN HISPANOLA. THIS UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A CUTOFF LOW AS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROF WILL CREATE A RELATIVE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROF...WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN HISPANOLA/MONA PASSAGE...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROF...LIES ALONG AND BENEATH THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THIS UPPER TROF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN OBSERVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE
LOCALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES HAVE MEASURED IN
SAN JUAN AND RIO GRANDE.

LATEST FORECAST CHARTS STILL INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE...AS DEEP MOISTURE CONFINES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE MODELS NO LONGER SHOW RISK OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER..IN A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MODERATE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT TO THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT LIKELY
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE VORTICES ROUND
THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST VCSH. PROB FOR THUNDER
OR MVFR CIGS APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST VCSH
ATTM.MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST VCSH. PROB FOR THUNDER
OR MVFR CIGS APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST VCSH
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH 6-8 FT SEAS COMMON IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS.
SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

[msbee]

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... pond-.html

We were almost caught in this Saturday night.
water went over our hood, car started drifting sideways toward the pond. The power and depth of the water was incredible..It really took us by surprise.
Luckily my husband, who was driving, managed to back up ,out of it, and we went home the other way around, which was incredibley flooded also.
It was very very scary

[cycloneye]

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1-islands-news/23158-heavy-rain-sweeps-four-cars-into-pond-.html

We were almost caught in this Saturday night.
water went over our hood, car started drifting sideways toward the pond. The power and depth of the water was incredible..It really took us by surprise.
Luckily my husband, who was driving, managed to back up ,out of it, and we went home the other way around, which was incredibley flooded also.
It was very very scary

OMG,scary moment indeed Barbara. I am glad that you didn't suffered injuries from that.

[msbee]

yes, we were lucky, Luis.
and it just goes to show how easily something like that can happen

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected today for parts of the Eastern Caribbean so watch for some flooding. Also,the waves are high so dont venture in a small boat.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST TUE DEC 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A STRONG GRADIENT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PW VALUES TO THE WAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
1 INCH...WHILE 2 INCHES AND HIGHER ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE TOUGH HAVE CAUSED PERSISTENT RAIN OVER THE
AREA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT IT MEANDERS OVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS....GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TODAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
07/06Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
MVFR BRIEF IN USVI IF OBSERVED. LLVL WINDS NNE 5 TO 15 KT UP TO 7
KFT BECMG VRB UP TO 10 KT FROM 10 TO 20 KFT. WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY
DURG THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE
WATERS. BUOY 41053 REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 8 FEET WITH AN 11
SECOND PERIOD. ALSO...THE RINCON BUOY REPORTED SEAS OF OVER 7 FEET
AT AN 11 SECOND PERIOD. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUED AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 13 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 75 / 60 40 40 20
STT 84 75 84 75 / 50 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
107 PM AST TUE DEC 6 2011

.UPDATE...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEING ADVOCATED SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO APPARENT WAS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORT MAX
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
REGION. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALED FAIRLY WELL AND DID IN FACT
SHOW THIS WEAK VORT MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT THE INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED TODAY AS MUCH
OF THE ISLANDS REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH AREA OF MAX DIVERGENCE LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS.
LATEST 12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST GROUND BASED
GPS IPW SHOWED DECREASING PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA SUGGESTING
THAT MOST OF FA REMAINED ON THE DRY AND STABLE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THEREFORE EXPECT THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW.

[cycloneye]

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE AXIS OVER PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT MID LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL ESTABLISH OVER PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT LOWER
LEVELS...SURFACE TROF CONTINUES EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE PERSISTING
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE CELLS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AND MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST TROPICAL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF REMAINS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC/CIMMS TPW ANALYSIS. THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROF FAVORS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...LEAVING OUR AREA
UNDER A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALSO...LIGHT
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN A
PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LATEST FORECAST CHARTS STILL INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE
WETTER PATTERN MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...BRINGING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT SOME TAF SITES DURG THE NXT 24 HRS. AS A
RESULT TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PR...
OVR PARTS OF THE VI... AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO
PSBL W/PASSING SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR.
LATEST VELOCITY WIND PROFILE...PREVIOUS 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING..AS
WELL AS AMDAR DATA SUGGESTS WNDS GENERALLY LGT AND VRB BLO 10K
FT...BCMG WESTERLY AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...NNW TO NNE SWELLS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. BUOY 41043 REPORTED WAVE
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET AT 11 SECOND PERIOD. NEAR-SHORE BUOYS
ARE REPORTING WAVE HEIGHT BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET AT 11 SECONDS.
ALTHOUGH...THE WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN DECREASING AT THE NEAR-SHORE
BUOYS...BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 10 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG
THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 13
FEET. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 86 76 85 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND GLOBAL MODELS CLOSES IT
OFF AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING ALONG 50W UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT
MOVES WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED TPW SUGGESTED
THAT PW VALUES OVER THE AREA WERE ABOUT 1.2 INCHES OVER THE AREA.
GENERALLY THOUGHT TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 07/00Z RAOB HAS KEPT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS.

THE MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY GIVE US ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...GIVES US A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT THE NAM MODEL
IS SHOWING.

SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAIN YESTERDAY AND ITS SOILS MAY BE SATURATED.
THEREFORE...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THAT AREA MAY CAUSE SOME
URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE SURFACE TROUGH...OR CUTOFF LOW BY THEN
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 50W. ALSO...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE US A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO
MOVE WEST AND PASS NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA...GIVING US A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF
INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS OR
NEAR SOME TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ AND TJMZ AIRPORT 18-22Z.

.MARINE...SAN JUAN BUOY IS STILL REPORTING SEAS OVER 6 FEET WITH
AN 11 SECOND PERIOD. ALSO...THE RINCON BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS OF
OVER 5 FEET WITH 11 SECOND PERIOD. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 3 PM AST. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS WELL
AS THE LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 83 75 / 50 20 20 40
STT 86 76 85 76 / 40 30 30 20

[Macrocane]

I have just posted the observations from last week's cold surge in Central America wich produced some of the coldest temperatures of the year in the region: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2207699#p2207699

A new cold surge has begun today and nice cool winds are blowing again across the region.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
HELP MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING FURTHER NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TO THEN TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DIPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED
IN AND AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED OR REPORTED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO
THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE INDUCED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL SURGES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED
TREND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WITH AN ISOLATED
TS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT SOME TAF SITES...TJPS...
TJMZ...TJBQ THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TIL 07/2200Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 86 76 85 / 30 30 40 40