SWIO: ex-02R - Tropical Disturbance

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 030830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 69.2E TO 14.4S 67.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 030730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 68.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S
69.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 030303Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC WITH WELL
DEFINED, YET CONVECTIVELY WEAKER, LOW-LEVEL BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A 030511Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED
FORMATIVE WESTERN BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LESS THAN 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS
ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS, VWS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AND MAY ALLOW A WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, FORMATIVE BANDING, AND
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040830Z.//

[Extratropical94]

TCFA has been cancelled by JTWC.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Disturbance
15.7S 75.3E
10 min winds: 20-25 knots
Gusts: 30-35 knots
Pressure: 1002 hPa
Dvorak T1.5

source: http://www.mtotec.com/

---
they been monitoring it for some time now since it once had a Dvorak number of 2.0 earlier this weekend.

[Grifforzer]

Reunion Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Tropical disturbance located at 10:30Z near 16.2S 70.4E. ASCAT data along with latest satellite
imagery show a well defined LLCC associated with rather weak convective bands. Winds are in the 20-25 kts range and MSLP is estimated at 1001 hPa. The system is still slowly drifting southwards but should curve westwards soon on the northern edge of a building subtropical ridge. Within favorable atmospheric conditions (low vertical wind shear under the upper level ridge) but over waters with somewhat limited heat potential (26-27C at the surface), some slow development is possible within the next few days. Inhabitants of Rodrigues island should closely monitored the
evolution of this system.

For the next 72 hours, the potential for the development of a new tropical depression is fair to
good

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... iste.html# (05-12-2011 11H57 UTC)

[HURAKAN]

convection has increased

[HURAKAN]

making a very strong comeback

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[francis327]

WTXS21 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9S 69.9E TO 17.5S 65.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S 69.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
69.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 69.6E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS, AND A 060055Z SSMIS IMAGES REVEALS THICK
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AROUND THE LLCC. THE MOST
RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH SPARSE, INDICATES
WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE LLCC, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM
WATERS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT GOOD OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE,
INCLUDING A DEVELOPING POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070300Z.
//
NNNN



Now T2.5 Info from http://www.mtotec.com


Veru beautiful view of two cyclones getting together...

[Chacor]

Looks very impressive.

JTWC have this as 02S:

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060251ZDEC2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS WEAKENED
SINCE AN IMPRESSIVE, CONSOLIDATED SIGNATURE NEAR 06/0200Z (ALSO SEE
THE 052325Z SSMI). HOWEVER, A 060410Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWS 30-
35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO
RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060251Z
DEC 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060300).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALENGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Extratropical94]

Now officially Tropical Depression 02R:

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2011/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/12/07 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2011/12/07 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2011/12/08 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2011/12/08 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2011/12/09 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2011/12/09 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2011/12/10 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
120H: 2011/12/11 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0, CI=2.5
CONVECTION REMAINED FLUCTUATING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, PROBABLY IN
RELATION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT.
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS SHOULD
IMPROVE THE POLAR INFLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND TRACK SHOULD
RECURVE WESTWARD.
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL IS POOR (26/26,5DEG). UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK.
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS AND SHOULD REACH
THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
BEYOND 48TAU IT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND
FILL UP BEYOND 96TAU.

[francis327]

Becoming more organize. Eye seems to be visible



And the forecasted track by JTWC

[Chacor]

Er, what eye?

WTIO30 FMEE 061837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2011/12/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 67.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/12/07 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2011/12/07 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2011/12/08 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2011/12/08 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2011/12/09 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2011/12/09 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2011/12/10 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2011/12/11 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5, CI=2.5
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST ACCORDING TO LATEST MW IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISAPEARED CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND EXIST ONLY WITHIN A PERIPHERICAL BAND LOCATED TO MORE THAN 120
NM IN THESOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.HOWEVER ASCAT PASS OF 1641Z STILL SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN TH
E SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARDS.REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS SHOULD
IMPROVE THE POLAR INFLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ENERGETIC POTENTIAL IS POOR (26/26,5DEG). UPPER LEV
EL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK.
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM.DUE TO THE CURRENT TREND, THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BEYOND 48TAU IT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND FILL UP BEYOND 96TAU.

[CrazyC83]

B name is what?

[P.K.]

B name is what?

Benilde, on the list from Mozambique.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 071236 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2011/12/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 67.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/W 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/12/08 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
24H: 2011/12/08 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
36H: 2011/12/09 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
48H: 2011/12/09 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5, CI=1.5

THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED, THE LLCC IS NOW COMPLETLY EXPOSED.

THE LLCC IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBALLY WESTWARDS. IT IS FORECAST TO GO ON SLOWLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS FILLING UP.


THE SYSTEM, AS A FILLING LOW, SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND FRIDAY.

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION

[Chacor]

Making another comeback... convection is redeveloping near the centre. T1.0 from SAB.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 091156

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2011/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 65.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/12/10 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2011/12/10 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2011/12/11 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2011/12/11 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2011/12/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
72H: 2011/12/12 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS TOTALLY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTELRLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP ITS WESTWARD TRACK AND WILL FILL UP FOR THE NEXT DAYS. IN FACT, DESPITE A TEMPORARY SLIGHT DECREASE TOMORROW, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD PERSIST AND SST WILL REMAIN IN RANGE OF 26/27 DEGREES C.

FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, SOME HEAVY RAINS SHOULD OCCUR OVER RODRIGUES ISLAND WITH FLUCTUATING CONVECTION THAT IS REJECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION.