TROPIAL UPDATE AROUND THE GLOBE 11 AM EDT

[WXBUFFJIM]

At 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Fabian remains a very dangerous category 4 hurricane as it continues on a more westerly track late this morning.

At 11 AM EDT, the center of major hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 56.8 west or about 335 miles east of Burbuda on the northern tip of the Leeward Islands. Fabian is moving towards the west at 12 mph and a turn towards the west northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. However wobbles to the west may continue from time to time. On this track, very large swell with large battering waves and dangerous rip currents can be expected over the northern Lesser Antillies, the US and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next 24-48 hours. An outer rain band or two combined with daytime heating could also develop in these same areas bringing gusty winds and squalls later today into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 140 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are common in hurricanes that are this strong and such will be the case over the next 24 hours. A hurricane hunter plane will investigate the system this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. Minimum central pressure is 949 millibars or 28.02 inches.

Several possibilities exists as to how this hurricane will effect the eastern seaboard. That cone of uncertainity 5 days out does now affect Cape Hatters up to Virginia Beach. The official NHC track has Fabian paralleling the coast. So whether this makes landfall or not, there will be epic waves with wave heights of 6-12 feet near shore from south carolina northward saturday into sunday in offshore swells as well as dangerous and deadly rip currents and beach erosion, especially at times of high tide. However if Fabian makes landfall or clips North Carolina and Virginia coastlines, those wave heights and conditions mentioned above would be much worse obviously and the full moon won't help much either with the astronomical high tides!! We're still 5-7 days away from possible landfall if that does occur along the eastern seaboard. Stay tuned for further updates around the clock on Fabian!!!

Meanwhile another thing to watch is a wave, which has exploded this morning over the western caribbean west of Jamaica. This could slowly develop a low pressure near the surface over the next day or two and this will be monitored for possible tropical development!!

The eastern pacific is quiet today. Jimena is a tropical storm in the central pacific near Hawaii. Heavy rains and higher surf is the primary threat in the big island of Hawaii. Jimena is centered at latitude 17.3 north, longitude 155.5 west or about 170 miles south of hilo, hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are now 70 mph with higher gusts. Thus the hurricane watch has been cancelled and the tropical storm warning remains in effect for the big island. Further weakening is likely to take place over the next day or two. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb or 29.53 inches.

Another big story is in the west Pacific where a very strong typhoon Dujuan is moving just south of Taiwan with 145 mph winds with gusts to 175 mph. The typhoon is aimed for Hong Kong in the next 2-3 days with hurricane force winds up to and over 85 mph and blinding flooding rains as well as mudslides. More updates on this and other developments throughout the day.

Good afternoon folks!!
Jim

[rainstorm]

lots going on jim, keep us updated