ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 11/28/11 update

La Nina is holding firm as no changes occured at Nino 3.4 area from last week to this week's update.

Last Week

Niño 4= -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.9ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.2ºC


This Week

Niño 4= -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.9ºC
Niño 3= -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/5/11 Weekly update

The Pacific was a little more colder this week than last week according to this week's update.

Last Week's update

Niño 4= -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.9ºC
Niño 3= -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.6ºC

This Week's update

Niño 4=-0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.1ºC
Niño 3= -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.3ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Could this be the bottom-out point and a return to El Nino be brewing in the next year?

[xironman]

SOI is headed to the stratosphere. It isn't going to turn soon I think.

[cycloneye]

SOI is headed to the stratosphere. It isn't going to turn soon I think.

Way up there meaning La Nina is very firm at this time.

[cycloneye]

Could this be the bottom-out point and a return to El Nino be brewing in the next year?

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters has to say about the possibbility of El Nino by the peak of the 2012 season.

We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

[CrazyC83]

Even if we get a full-blown El Nino, intense landfalling hurricanes can and do occur in below-normal hurricane seasons as well. It only takes one!

[Ptarmigan]

Even if we get a full-blown El Nino, intense landfalling hurricanes can and do occur in below-normal hurricane seasons as well. It only takes one!

The 1900 Hurricane Season was an El Nino season.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center weekly update at 12/12/11

A little bit less cold in the Pacific compared to last week,but La Nina still holds firm.

Last Week's update

Niño 4=-0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.1ºC
Niño 3= -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.3ºC


This Week's update

Niño 4= -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[bg1]

Climate Prediction Center weekly update at 12/12/11

A little bit less cold in the Pacific compared to last week,but La Nina still holds firm.

Last Week's update

Niño 4=-0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.1ºC
Niño 3= -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.3ºC


This Week's update

Niño 4= -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It's getting warmer already?

El Nino next year seems to be a real possibility, if this becomes a trend. How does anyone feel about a five-tropical-storm season?

[cycloneye]

December update of ENSO Models

bg1,not so fast. The vast majority of the models continue to forecast Neutral conditions for next summer,but of course things can change,so we have to watch in the next 2-3 months what is occuring in the Pacific and with the models.



http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html

[cycloneye]

SOI is headed to the stratosphere. It isn't going to turn soon I think.

It keeps going way up in positive territory,and that means La Nina is getting a bit stronger at this moment.We have to see when the SOI begins to go down if it passes the +5 line in a rapid pace or it goes slowly to see if La Nina fades rapidly or it will be slow to do that.

[euro6208]

with neutral expected, i expect the 2012 typhoon season to be more active than this 2011 season and possibly even deadlier for some areas of the wpac and the continuation of multiple storms hitting the philippines...

let's wait and see how this enso evolves...

[bg1]

Last Week:
Niño 4= -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC

This Week:
Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricane25]

I expect overall as long as the Soi is rising or remaining high that the nina should just "go" back and forth a few tenths within its intensity. Anyways, I'd agree with the models above, which did a pretty good job with forecasting the nina, neutral and back to nina pattern of the last year. So, I'd expect a neutral pattern for our 2012 hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/27/11 update

No change from last week's update from -0.9C at Nino 3.4 area,indicating that La Nina is holding it's own for now.However,it shows some warming at Nino 1-2 and Nino 3 areas.

Last Week's Update

Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

This Week's Update

Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.9ºC
Niño 3= -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Joe bastardi seems to think El Nino returns next winter, so a neutral to weak nino conditions MIGHT be present for tropical season 2012. He's done well the past 4+ years of calling enso. Also I haven't been able to find a case of back to back to back (triple) Ninas, if anyone has please feel free to correct!

[cycloneye]

Joe bastardi seems to think El Nino returns next winter, so a neutral to weak nino conditions MIGHT be present for tropical season 2012. He's done well the past 4+ years of calling enso. Also I haven't been able to find a case of back to back to back (triple) Ninas, if anyone has please feel free to correct!

If it turns out that ENSO is in that status by the summer and mantains going into the fall, it may well be another active hurricane season waiting to happen as the stats of past seasons having this ENSO condition trends to be active with U.S landfalls. But is a long way to go before we know how this factor will behave in the next 3-6 months.

[Ptarmigan]

Joe bastardi seems to think El Nino returns next winter, so a neutral to weak nino conditions MIGHT be present for tropical season 2012. He's done well the past 4+ years of calling enso. Also I haven't been able to find a case of back to back to back (triple) Ninas, if anyone has please feel free to correct!

Back to back El Nino winters are rare, but they do occur. Back to back La Nina winters have happened more often and even occurred in threes!

All data goes back to 1950.

Back to Back El Ninos (December to February)
1969-1970
1977-1978


Back to Back La Ninas (December to February)
1950-1951
1954-1957
1970-1972
1973-1976
1998-2001


Years that went from La Nina to El Nino
1952
1957
1972
1976
2006
2009

NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml


If we use Japanese Meteorological Agency ENSO data, which goes back to 19th century.

Back to Back El Ninos (December to February)
1876-1878
1884-1886
1887-1889
1895-1897
1904-1906
1918-1920
1929-1931

Back to Back La Ninas (December to February)
1871-1876
1892-1894
1908-1911
1916-1918
1937-1939
1944-1946
1954-1956
1970-1972
1973-1976
1998-2001

Years that went from La Nina to El Nino
1876
1880
1887
1904
1911
1918
1963
1965
1972
1976
2006
2009

Interesting to note that years that go from La Nina to El Nino produce some of the coldest winters on record.
1904-1905
1911-1912
1976-1977
2009-2010

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/3/12 Weekly update

A tad colder in the Pacific on this week's update.

Last Week's update

Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.9ºC
Niño 3= -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC


This Week's update

Niño 4= -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.9ºC




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf