Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah from talking with you guys and teaching myself over the last few years, the 500 MB chart is very important. Understanding where the source of the cold is vital. Next weeks looks to be coming out of the NW territories. I understand the lack of a snow pack etc as well, but i think the ridge in the SE/ +NAO is what may be throwing me off. Since we have the +NAO, much of the cold air is being strung out towards the east. Got it!


Why would baja lows sitting there for too long be a bad thing?

[Ntxw]

Why would baja lows sitting there for too long be a bad thing?

It gets sheared as it ejects pieces out and won't provide enough cool air aloft. Many times in Texas we rely on a strong deep single system to cool the air aloft and help with the snow making. Also the way the winds go counter clockwise around low pressure, if it sits in the baja our flow is out of the SW ahead of the storm = warmer air. Longer it sits the more warm air gets pumped up from Mexico. Perhaps someone with better knowledge can clarify!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Why would baja lows sitting there for too long be a bad thing?

It gets sheared as it ejects pieces out and won't provide enough cool air aloft. Many times in Texas we rely on a strong deep single system to cool the air aloft and help with the snow making. Also the way the winds go counter clockwise around low pressure, if it sits in the baja our flow is out of the SW ahead of the storm = warmer air. Longer it sits the more warm air gets pumped up from Mexico. Perhaps someone with better knowledge can clarify!

Ahh i see, makes sense, thanks!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS ensembles very favorable. -EPO translating into a +PNA next week (High over eastern Canada/Southern Greenland as well ).



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[Rgv20]

You know we are in a serious drought when we get a Special Weather Statement informing the public of 1/2'' to an 1'' rain event for the weekend I think the 1 to 2 inches totals are going to be confined to the immediate coastline if at all. I'm just glad I have a good chance of seeing some rain!!

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
218 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

TXZ248>257-100400-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
218 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

...WELCOME RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

THE COMBINATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE AND GULF
MOISTURE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WELCOME RAINFALL
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.

AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PRODUCE WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO DIMINISH NEXT MONDAY AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
VALUES NORTH.

&&

FOR ALL YOUR LOCAL WEATHER NEEDS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV.

$$

SPEECE

[Ntxw]

Ok so the 18z GFS is howling the same set up. For two days now the GFS runs have had an interesting storm in over Texas next weekend in one form or another. I'd increase the chances at this range to 20% optimistic, up from 2%

[orangeblood]

Ok so the 18z GFS is howling the same set up. For two days now the GFS runs have had an interesting storm in over Texas next weekend in one form or another. I'd increase the chances at this range to 20% optimistic, up from 2%

I'll also add that the with the EPO in the negative phase, the GFS seems like the more plausible scenario when compared to the Euro or Canadian. Due to the fact that the negative phase of the EPO usually translates into a more progressive pattern from west to east across the country and usually doesn't let cut-off low pressure systems form and spin across the southwest US for too long. I would expect the Euro and Canadian to trend more towards the GFS over the next few days, imo.

[Rgv20]

We have had a moderate rain for the past couple of hours! According at the local site in Rio Grande City we already received 1.21'' of rain so far!! And it still coming down at a pretty good clip...

[South Texas Storms]

Enjoy it Rgv! You deserve it! Thankfully, the rains are spreading northward towards SA right now!

[Ntxw]

The models are converging in a late week/weekend significant cold snap for the southern plains. Canadian and Euro look colder than previous runs. GFS backed off a bit on the cold a bit but still has the changes. West coast ridge shoots up into the Arctic circle so let's wait and see how they continue to trend.

[Rgv20]

The 12zECMWF is showing some impressive 850mb temperatures anomalies coming down the spine of the Rockies on Saturday Morning.

:uarrow:
Enjoy it Rgv! You deserve it! Thankfully, the rains are spreading northward towards SA right now!

I'm definitely enjoying the Rain! As of Right now we have received 1.85''!!! I'm sure we are going to break the 2'' mark later today.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:
Enjoy it Rgv! You deserve it! Thankfully, the rains are spreading northward towards SA right now!

Looks like they have made it to SA. They are closer than I expected to our West here in Houston. I am hoping ALL of us get some of this rain. As regular as the rains have gotten we are still over 2 feet down for our deficit. The weird thing is that our yards are greener now than they have been in the last 6 months and they are now in their dormant stage.

[ndale]

A quote from the Austin wfo discussion, "A STRONGER CANADIAN FRONT IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST...NEXT
WEEKEND...SOME MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE
CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING RAINS."

Seems whatever may happen about a week out has caught their attention.

[Portastorm]

Based on the 12z medium-range models, I think Ntxw is definitely onto something. Props to orangeblood as well for his post last night. Next weekend looks to be a wild one in Texas with wintry weather for some and severe weather for others.

They don't make La Ninas like they used to.

[Tireman4]

They don't make La Ninas like they used to. [/quote]

Oh how we long for the old days.....Up with the PWC...

[Ntxw]

Wait and see approach from FW

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT 144 HRS. A LARGE/BROAD POSITIVE TILTED 200MB
TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE HUDSON BAY TO LAS VEGAS. THE 500 MB TROUGH
IS ANCHORED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW US...WITH
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 500MB TROUGH DETACHED AND PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER PATTERN RAISES RED FLAGS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER...BECAUSE IT SIGNALS THAT MAIN
INGREDIENTS...COLD AIR AND LIFT...WILL BE GIVEN THE CHANCE TO
MINGLE IN OUR REGION. MODELS BECOME UNTRUSTWORTHY REGARDING THE
SPECIFICS BY DAY 7-10...AND WE HAVE SEEN THE GFS BOUNCE AROUND
WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE WESTERN LOW. THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE
TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG/DEFINED AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE...SO
THIS SUGGESTS COLD AIR MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY WINTER
WEATHER. THIS LIKELY SIGNALS MORE ICE THAN SNOW...WITH THE NW PART
OF THE CWA FAVORED SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.
OBVIOUSLY WITHOUT GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL
KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO WATCH.

[iorange55]

I haven't had a lot of time to look at the models (horrible weekend) but if I was a betting man, I'd go with ice storm over snow storm on this one.

[Brandon8181]

Looks like the GFS has backed off big time with any winter weather potential across Texas.. Maybe its just a fluke run.. you think?

Considering the consistancy that we have seen over the last few days...

[ndale]

Looks like the GFS has backed off big time with any winter weather potential across Texas.. Maybe its just a fluke run.. you think?

Considering the consistancy that we have seen over the last few days...

The 18z run of the gfs is probably the least reliable of all the runs, probably need to wait and see what the next runs show.

[Jarodm]

that precip shield is getting really close to dfw area with lows expected to be in the low 30s