Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

too much rain. Luis..just too much... and I learned the other night how easy it is to make a mistake about going through flooded roads. Be careful out there people!

I woke up to sunny skies this morning but with high winds. about 17MPH from the ENE.
We received about 2 inches of rain last night. My yard just can't dry out. I am walking in mud everywhere and my pool is overflowing.
now it is getting cloudy again and looks like rain. We shall see what the day will bring.

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry Barbara. Hope for the best.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1132 AM AST SAT DEC 10 2011

.UPDATE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

[Jimsot]

Jimsot,how is the weather today in Anguilla?

Our record setting pace for rainfall continues unabated. Yesterday and overnight we recieved another 2.70 inches of rain with several bouts of heavy rain gusty winds and lots of thunder and lightening.. Right now it is sunny and breezy with scattered clouds. It looks like it will be a close call today as storms seem to be just to our south. I hope they stay away.

A normal yearly rainfall for Anguilla is about 35 inches. YTD we are over 60 inches. In early January I will post a month by month recap.

[cycloneye]

Jimsot,how is the weather today in Anguilla?

Our record setting pace for rainfall continues unabated. Yesterday and overnight we recieved another 2.70 inches of rain with several bouts of heavy rain gusty winds and lots of thunder and lightening.. Right now it is sunny and breezy with scattered clouds. It looks like it will be a close call today as storms seem to be just to our south. I hope they stay away.

A normal yearly rainfall for Anguilla is about 35 inches. YTD we are over 60 inches. In early January I will post a month by month recap.

Here in San Juan Puerto Rico,the rainfall has been way above normal this year and that makes it two years in a row as 2010 has the title of the most rainfall ever since records began to be taken.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................


PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.81          2.80 1975   0.17   0.64     0.17
  MONTH TO DATE    4.75                      1.55   3.20     1.96
  SINCE DEC 1      4.75                      1.55   3.20     1.96
  SINCE JAN 1     84.71                     52.88  31.83    83.99



[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

After a very wet night and early morning in NE PR,it has calmed down and even some vague sun glimpse has been seen. Let's see if this continues to allow the rivers and creeks to go down.

Off Topic=Gusty,the 2011-2012 NBA season is almost here (Starts on Christmas day) so you can go to the thread at sports forum to discuss or post anything about the upcomming season.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=112287&hilit=&p=2207994#p2207994

[Gustywind]

After a very wet night and early morning in NE PR,it has calmed down and even some vague sun glimpse has been seen. Let's see if this continues to allow the rivers and creeks to go down.

Off Topic=Gusty,the 2011-2012 NBA season is almost here (Starts on Christmas day) so you can go to the thread at sports forum to discuss or post anything about the upcomming season.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=112287&hilit=&p=2207994#p2207994

Oh thanks Cycloneye

[cycloneye]

It looks like things will improve starting on Sunday,but much better weather will begin from Monday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE AND SOLID BAND OF
MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INDUCED BY THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP FEED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM TIME TO TIME WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT THIS CONVERGENCE BAND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARDS RETROGRESSES AND
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE VERY MOIST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...AS WELL
AS AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING ALONG WITH
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO RECEIVE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF BY
MID MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BY MONDAY...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK IN SHRA/TSRA.
ENE WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 10/22Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...2011 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
AT TJSJ WITH A TOTAL OF 85.93"(AS OF 10/17Z). IF WE WERE TO GET
ABOUT 4 INCHES...2011 WOULD END AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT
TJSJ.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 83 / 70 20 20 20
STT 74 84 74 85 / 70 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

As of 1 PM AST,the 2011 rainfall totals keep rising fast and now with only 4 more inches,this year will break the all time record that was reached last year.

CLIMATE...2011 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
AT TJSJ WITH A TOTAL OF 85.93"(AS OF 10/17Z). IF WE WERE TO GET
ABOUT 4 INCHES...2011 WOULD END AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT
TJSJ.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good news that the bad weather that affected the NE Caribbean in the past two days is over.Now we return to the typical december weather with some passing showers,but with more sun.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING MAINLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
FAJARDO...LUQUILLO AND CEIBA. THESE SHOWERS WERE FAST
MOVING...ALTHOUGH SOME PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...WHERE DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WHICH
AFFECTED THE AREA SATURDAY HAS WEAKEN DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS...LEAVING ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAX A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE REGION.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY WHICH WILL INDUCE A FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST PW VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1.0 INCH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EMBEDDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...PROMISE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONT THRU MON WITH VCSH/PSBL BRIEF MVFR DUE
LO CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA...SOME OBSCD MTNS IN AFT/EVE. WIND BLO FL200
WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THRU MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 72 / 40 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 40 20 30 30

[msbee]

finally! a day without rain!

[cycloneye]

finally! a day without rain!

Yes!! also in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT BRINGS A DRIER POCKET FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY...HOWEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE...BUT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED
TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.0 INCH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN AND AROUND TJPS/TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH.
PREVAILING WIND AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS ALL PASSAGES...HOWEVER ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...2011 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
AT TJSJ WITH A TOTAL OF 86.39"(AS OF 11/17Z). IF WE WERE TO GET
ABOUT 4 INCHES...2011 WOULD ENDED AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 82 / 20 40 40 40
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The typical December weather will continue with some passing showers,but with plenty of sunshine. For next thursday,a cold front will arrive bringing more showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST MON DEC 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND TOWARD/INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AND SHOULD PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THAT
SAID...BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS FORESEEN AT THIS
TIME...AS BOUNDARY IS PUSHED RATHER STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
MAY EVEN CLEAR THE ENTIRE FA BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
LOOKING WAY AHEAD...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT)
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GOOD "COLD" ADVECTION ACROSS THE
WARM WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FA...WITH RATHER NOTICEABLE AND SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND EL YUNQUE THROUGH ABOUT 12/13Z IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DURING
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD/INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
IN NORTHEAST SWELLS...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM AST TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINING COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 83 72 / 0 40 40 30
STT 85 73 85 74 / 0 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Surely is a big change from the bad weather that the Eastern Caribbean has been thru in recent days and weeks,here is the difference for example in Guadeloupe and in St Maarten.

The mountain in Guadeloupe is not seen as the rain was hard on November 27.



Same mountain on December 12 image.



Beach in St Maarten on November 27.



Same beach in St Maarten on December 12.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON DEC 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOWARD
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE
PREVAILING WIND FLOW...EXPECT LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STRONG
WINDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.0 INCH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONT THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH VCSH/PSBL
BRIEF MVFR DUE LO CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA...SOME OBSCD MTNS IN AFT/EVE.
WIND BLO FL200 WILL BE VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 20 30
STT 73 85 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail thru the NE Caribbean today.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
EAST NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARD AND THEN INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY TOO. STILL EXPECT A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
AND PASS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...AS BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
RATHER STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
LOOKING WAY AHEAD...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT)
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GOOD "COLD" ADVECTION ACROSS THE
WARM WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FA...WITH RATHER NOTICEABLE AND SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND EL YUNQUE THROUGH ABOUT 13/13Z
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DURING WEDNESDAY
AND THEN EXPANDING TO OTHER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD/INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. BASED ON LOCAL BUOY AND MODEL
DATA TRENDS...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AGAIN FOR SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 0 20 20 40
STT 85 72 85 75 / 0 20 20 20

[msbee]

Good morning
Keep those good weather reports rolling in, Luis
Thanks!

[cycloneye]

More good news Barbara.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT
OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...AS BOUNDARY IS
PUSHED RATHER STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. LOOKING WAY AHEAD...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINATION OF
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT)
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GOOD "COLD" ADVECTION ACROSS THE
WARM WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FA...WITH RATHER NOTICEABLE AND SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 81 / 20 20 40 40
STT 72 85 75 83 / 20 20 20 40