Henri in the making? Another system for GOM

Guest · #21 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 12:22 pm

yeah that's probably the best thing to do....lets get an invest on it and see if something develops - might be another Grace.

ChaserUK · #22 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 12:27 pm

sure looks like some circulation there. Also, I notice an area of convection/ cloud moving Se towards/ head of Fabian - is there any chance this couold influence its path, even push it further South?

southerngale · #23 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 1:31 pm

Another system in the GOM? Oh goodness!

So, what are the chances of development with this?

DJJordan · #24 Postby **DJJordan** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 1:44 pm

I think this is gonna be picked up and moved N to NE so persons from New Orleans eastward through Florida need to watch this. If anything it'll produce heavy rain like Grace did for Texas.

wrkh99 · #25 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 1:50 pm

What is going to pick it up and carry it NE ?

A Strong cold front ?

ameriwx2003 · #26 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 1:58 pm

What is going to pick it up and carry it NE ?

Wrkh99, A trof looks to possibly turn the potential storm NE:):)

ColdFront77 · #27 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:01 pm

The frontal system over the United States has become stationary (has been for the last couple of days).

Frontal systems become stationary when they are developing or dissipating. The forecast is calling for the front to dissipate over northern Georiga.

Thus, it isn't a strong cold front that is going to pick up the convection in the western Caribbean Sea. The steering pattern is S to N/SSW to NNE in that area.

ameriwx2003 · #28 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:13 pm

This excerpt from the MLB AFD explains the situation fairly well:):)

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO OUR
NORTH THE PAST FEW DAYS STARTS SHIFTING EAST AS A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH...DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA RESULTING IN HIGHER POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAY HAVE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH
RAIN WATER. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MODELS FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE CYCLES.

Link to full AFD
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

Colin · #29 Postby **Colin** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:21 pm

All I can say is that it will be very interesting to watch over the next couple of days!! :o

ColdFront77 · #30 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:41 pm

Yes indeed, what I have been hearing here in central Florida (Melbourne, FL National Weather Service) that is the continual conjecture, compare that to the 180º difference in this morning's forecast model guidance.

There are uncertainties with this system, no one should be considering this system going out to sea for sure. It continues to bear some serious watching.

#31 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:50 pm

Exactly... we have to take and wait and see approach. First, we have to see if it is going to develop. Then, we can monitor it and follow its track.

Henri in the making? Another system for GOM

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