Latest from JTWC
WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR
6.2N 139.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS -
280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT:
6.2N 139.0E ---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 6.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 7.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 8.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 8.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 6.3N 138.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED IN TRACK
SPEED, THEREFORE, ALLOWING FOR THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO EASE. A
140636Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ORGANIZED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH MULTIPLE, WEAKER RAINBANDS TO THE
SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMI IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 27W IS APPROXIMATELY
06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED, BUT
WEAKENING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A FILLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SOURCE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. TS 27W CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS BY THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVER THE NEXT 12-HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS 27W SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STR CAUSED BY THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE AREA.
TS 27W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE STR AXIS AND MAINTAINS POLEWARD VENTING. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48 AND THEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 96-120, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA DUE TO A FORECASTED SURGE
IN THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CHINA DURING THIS TIME SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48-HOURS, AFTER WHICH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
WITH THE NOGAPS AND WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF TO
THE LEFT. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT APPARENT TREND IN THE AIDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
UP TO TAU 48, AFTER WHICH INTENSITIES ARE KEPT APPROXIMATELY 10-
KNOTS LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN
From JMA
TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 14 December 2011
<Analyses at 14/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N5°50'
(5.8°)E139°25'
(139.4°)Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°20'
(6.3°)E137°05'
(137.1°)Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s
(35kt)Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s
(50kt)Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°10'(7.2°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s
(40kt)Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s
(60kt)Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
