Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Fyzn94]

Out of Conway, Arkansas:



What in the world is going on here???

[Brent]

Been so busy and there's been no hype for this event but looky here...



BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE
THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE RAIN OR SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12-15Z...TRANSITIONING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT...AND GOOD QG VERTICAL
ASCENT...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL
SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HR PERIOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOIL
TEMPERATURE DATA...4 INCH SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WARM SOILS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING...BUT A
BRIEF DUSTING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE COMING HOURS.

and from HUN:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO
SNOW AFTER 6 AM WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS IMPACTED INCLUDE
MADISON...JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY TENNESSEE...PRIMARILY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES PRIMARILY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.

[bella_may]

Finally something to watch! Check out the 23rd and Christmas night.

[TideJoe]

Finally something to watch! Check out the 23rd and Christmas night.

Link?

[bella_may]

Finally something to watch! Check out the 23rd and Christmas night.

Link?

Go to accuweather

[TideJoe]

Finally something to watch! Check out the 23rd and Christmas night.

Link?

Go to accuweather

No winter precip in the Hattiesburg forecast on Accuweather.

[bella_may]

No winter precip in the Hattiesburg forecast on Accuweather.[/quote][/quote]
Not yet but at least its something to keep an eye on LOL

[bella_may]

I expect this topic to get real busy in the next couple days.accuweather is forecasting a ice storm at the end of the month.

[gsytch]

Accuweather always predicts something dramatic, and it usually becomes just an oddity rather than a nuisance but we shall see. 51F this morning is the chilliest low for my part of Tampa Bay in well over a week but a nice rebound into the 70's to near 80F for the remainder of the week.

[wxman57]

Careful what you're looking at over at AccuWeather. The free site just displays raw GFS data out to 16 days. It's not touched/edited by a meteorologist. We know how the GFS goes nuts in the long range quite often.

[bella_may]

Careful what you're looking at over at AccuWeather. The free site just displays raw GFS data out to 16 days. It's not touched/edited by a meteorologist. We know how the GFS goes nuts in the long range quite often.

Oh I know but like I said I was something to watch for LOL.but now its showing a ice storm Christmas night into the next morning.I checked weather channel and they only have rain with cold temps but about 5 degrees warmer than accuweather
Interesting with it only being 4-5 days out.......

[northjaxpro]

One thing I noticed for the Deep South looking at the longer range models out 10 days is that the southern jet stream looks to be becoming more active. Therefore, depending on the magnitude and depth of a potential cold airmass infiltrating southward by the end of the next 10 day period and the timing of the shortwave impulses moving along the southern jet stream, well, things may get interesting the last week of 2011. We shall see how things shake out the next 10 -12 days. We have been very fortunate so far this Fall/Winter season. I have to think however at point that we should get at least one good bout with old man winter in the Deep South even in an La Nina pattern this season.

[Wurbus]

I hope this pans out right after Christmas. Still a long way out though.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[bella_may]

The weather channel has been consistent these past couple days with rain and cold temps after Christmas.not forecasting anything frozen yet cause it's still 7 days out.

[Lane]

Would be nice!!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=162&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[NDG]

I hope this pans out right after Christmas. Still a long way out though.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

I wouldn't go by twisterdata.com's gfs snow depth graphic that much, it over exagerates the potential for snowfall.
A couple of example is how much it has busted this season so far in forecasting snow from central MS on southward and they only end up getting nothing but a few flakes if at all.
Another example that I noticed yesterday is that yesterday's 12z gfs run, twisterdata showed at least an inch of snow in Topeka area by 00z, when they had nothing but cold rain all afternoon and evening, not one flake of snow.

[bg1]

Some start of winter.

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 8 mph.

[Dean4Storms]

If you've not seen the ECMWF at 192hrs on today's 00Z run go take a look. Blizzard for the east coast and single digits all the way into north Florida!!!

[wxman57]

If you've not seen the ECMWF at 192hrs on today's 00Z run go take a look. Blizzard for the east coast and single digits all the way into north Florida!!!

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro predicted surface temps for hour 192 and beyond and don't see any single digits in Florida. I see a light freeze for the panhandle next Wednesday. And I also see the Euro forecasting temps 20-30F above normal in western Canada next week.

[fwbbreeze]