Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[weatherdude1108]

weatherdude1108 ... if you chose the "delete me please" option, which is the first option, then you're fine. It is something we need to do to discourage spam.

I just took a look at the 12z GFS and Euro ... nothing too exciting for our neck of the woods (south central Texas) besides ample rain chances. I guess that's exciting enough, eh?!

I do think parts of north and northwest Texas may see some wintry precip early next week if that upper-level low doesn't shear out and if it tracks overhead. As Ntxw has been saying, the track is everything.

Still waiting to see if we get a good buildup of Arctic air later this month with a possible delivery mechanism to appear in early January.

Porta, I'm very excited with all of the rain chances we have in south central Texas for the next 5 days! To me, any precipitation is a blessing. We are slowly chipping away at our drought and if this pattern continues all winter, it is very possible that the drought may be gone by March! Wouldn't that be incredible?! Especially with a La Nina Winter!

I am SO looking forward to that. Who would have thought? This La Nina is so much different from last year's. The "faucet" pretty much shut off in October 2010 to October 2011. Gives me hope at least.

I tried the first option "Delete me please" and got this when I pushed "Submit":

"The field “Mandatory field” must be completed." Sorry for the cyber questions. I'm really looking forward to "talking" only about the weather.

[Portastorm]

weatherdude1108, we're going to take this discussion offline. Check your messages please.

[Ntxw]

Good sign from 18z GFS. There is now a cold air source with a high pressure just north of the storm in question Monday, along with plenty of dynamic cooling on the backside as the storm is going negative tilt/deeping crossing TX/OK. If that is the case I would not count out suppression of the storm. Good trends today via the GFS.

Thus far we have gone from NM>KS>NE to S NM>West TX>OK from the GFS

[somethingfunny]

Good sign from 18z GFS. There is now a cold air source with a high pressure just north of the storm in question Monday, along with plenty of dynamic cooling on the backside as the storm is going negative tilt/deeping crossing TX/OK. If that is the case I would not count out suppression of the storm. Good trends today via the GFS.

Thus far we have gone from NM>KS>NE to S NM>West TX>OK from the GFS

FWD hasn't hinted at winter weather for that one (although last weekend they were hinting at either that one today or this one Sunday or some other upper level system bringing us some frozen stuff)

They did however write this:

THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US BY SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN CLOSED AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE POTENT AND AGAIN WE MAY SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

That, combined with the 18z's chillier backside, makes me wonder if we could get one of those "best of both worlds" severe outbreak + winter storm events. The track will be much further south on Sunday/Monday than the one we've got coming through today.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Good sign from 18z GFS. There is now a cold air source with a high pressure just north of the storm in question Monday, along with plenty of dynamic cooling on the backside as the storm is going negative tilt/deeping crossing TX/OK. If that is the case I would not count out suppression of the storm. Good trends today via the GFS.

Thus far we have gone from NM>KS>NE to S NM>West TX>OK from the GFS

What're your thoughts on the precip tomorrow night? Any chance we could see sleet mix in due to the cool air and low dew points?

[Ntxw]

What're your thoughts on the precip tomorrow night? Any chance we could see sleet mix in due to the cool air and low dew points?

I don't see anything that shows frozen precip anywhere really in the southern plains. Surface moisture just doesn't meet up with the freeze line. If I had to say, maybe freezing drizzle in far western Oklahoma/Tx panhandle? Other than that nothing points otherwise for tomorrow.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the long range guidance I just dont see any really cold air out there (although it could change rapidly) however I see north texas continuing to get some beneficial rainfall thru the end of December. The MJO is forecast to be in phase 5 in about a week and stay there thru the end of the month. With the MJO being in Phase 5 it usually results in a wet pattern for North Texas,Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

On a side note the GFS Ensembles are still insisting on the Stratosphere warming phase (this is a precursor to Major Cold sliding south) in the Alaska/NW Canada beginning in about 5 days and really taking off by the 10 day. Usually there is a 10 day lag so any real Arctic air intrusion would have to hold off after the new year.

[weatherdude1108]

Feels like it could rain nicely tonight just stepping outside.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks wet Monday. Continues the idea of the 18z run. It's going to be a dynamic system and more suppressed than the past few day's runs. Race between ejecting storm and cold air. The past two runs have hammered Amarillo with a foot of snow, for those interested in snow chasing .

Storm in question is now making it's way south between the Oregon and California coasts.



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[weatherdude1108]

0z GFS looks wet Monday. Continues the idea of the 18z run. It's going to be a dynamic system and more suppressed than the past few day's runs. Race between ejecting storm and cold air. The past two runs have hammered Amarillo with a foot of snow, for those interested in snow chasing .

Storm in question is now making it's way south between the Oregon and California coasts.

http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/1822/satm.gif[/img]

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I'm really curious how this low off of Oregon and California will play out in Central Texas. No winter precip, but beneficial rain. I'd guess the panhandle and South Plains could see a Winter wonderland of their own if it sets up in the right place and has enough cold air support behind it. North Texas maybe(?). Gotta keep watching those models, which seem to change by the hour.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

00Z GFS still shows some impressive dynamics with early next week's storm. Track is pretty consistent with past two runs.

[TwisterFanatic]

There's still quite a bit of difference between the GFS, EURO and the CMC on the track of the storm.

[aggiecutter]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

[Portastorm]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

[gpsnowman]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

Same with the DFW area. Early January with two or three days below freezing. Another good snow happened in early Feb of 1985. We had just moved from San Antonio the summer before so that winter was a treat for a kid. It would be a treat now and I'm not a kid! Well, sometimes

[Rgv20]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

Looking back at the archives, here in the valley we had some freezing rain during that time frame Of course I dont remember....maybe because I wasnt born yet!

[rkbjunior]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

I lived in Austin then as well. That was a great month. If I remember correctly the winter of 84-85 had a La Nina going then.

[ndale]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

I remember that too, I had only been here about 2 yrs when that happened.
In the meantime the gfs is justing being cruel, it shows snow cover very close to Austin on Christmas day. To know there are no weather patterns to support this and that it will just vanish on future runs is mean.

[HockeyTx82]

You know the old saying goes thunder in December, snow a few days later. Lets see if that saying holds up over the next few days/week or so. Anyone have any reason as to why this saying might be?

[gpsnowman]

You know the old saying goes thunder in December, snow a few days later. Lets see if that saying holds up over the next few days/week or so. Anyone have any reason as to why this saying might be?

Well I am hearing alot of thunder in Grand Prairie so I hope you are correct!