Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Interesting changes between the 0z and 6z GFS. The latter looks much more like the Canadian in holding back upper-level energy on Christmas Day while the 0z was much more progressive with the energy and attendant trough.

Perhaps ... the plot thickens ...

[Tireman4]

I wonder if Santa Claus will call the PWC and order snow for Christmas....you know the PWC has the power. Look what they did in San Fransisco last night...

[Portastorm]

Right you are, Tireman!

Portastorm Weather Center meteorologists, known intense Pittsburgh Steelers dislikers, did indeed pull off a real-life Buffalo Wings football surprise last night. We now owe snow to some folks in the Bay Area.

[iorange55]

12z NAM has an interesting look to it on Christmas Eve.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12z NAM has an interesting look to it on Christmas Eve.

Does it look stronger, or have more moisture available?

[iorange55]

12z NAM has an interesting look to it on Christmas Eve.

Does it look stronger, or have more moisture available?

It's pretty cold and has some moisture coming in from West Texas. Looks like it's holding back some energy after the cold has already arrived.

Hopefully...

I don't want to talk about it, though. Talking about snow on/near Christmas has to be some sort of jinx.

[Ntxw]

Euro coming in strong with the Christmas eve shortwave and has snow falling for West Texas and North Texas this Sat/Sun. It does the connection between the gulf low and upper level low and tries to pull moisture up and back (mini trowal) with an attempt to cutoff the 5h low.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro coming in strong with the Christmas eve shortwave and has snow falling for West Texas and North Texas this Sat/Sun. It does the connection between the gulf low and upper level low and tries to pull moisture up and back (mini trowal) with an attempt to cutoff the 5h low.

Very very interesting. Watching it update on PSU wall.

[Ntxw]

Very very interesting. Watching it update on PSU wall.

Wundermap at wunderground is very cool, much more detailed and updates at the same rate, just click "snowfall" option under model data>Ecmwf, or of course you can do the math via mslp and temps

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[HockeyTx82]

Euro coming in strong with the Christmas eve shortwave and has snow falling for West Texas and North Texas this Sat/Sun. It does the connection between the gulf low and upper level low and tries to pull moisture up and back (mini trowal) with an attempt to cutoff the 5h low.

Just incase some people don't know what a trowal is.

From http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/afd/showdef.php?term=trowal

TROWAL
TROugh of Warm Air ALoft. Typically used during winter weather, it is a "tongue" of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. It is best analyzed between 750-550 mb using equivalent potential temperature (theta-e).

Areas of intense lift and frontogenesis are commonly associated with TROWALs, hence they are favored regions for heavy and/or prolonged precipitation. During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.

[HockeyTx82]

Very very interesting. Watching it update on PSU wall.

Wundermap at wunderground is very cool, much more detailed and updates at the same rate, just click "snowfall" option under model data>Ecmwf, or of course you can do the math via mslp and temps

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Did I just see what I think I saw?

How accurate is the ECMWF this far out?

[Ntxw]

How accurate is the ECMWF this far out?

None of the models have been truly consistent the past few days. It is only one run by the euro. But there have been hints, it looks similar to the Canadian and NAM (though bad beyond 48hrs) doesn't go out as far but has the favored look. I don't even wanted to get started with the GFS it has gone about every which way...vorticity is there, question is how strong will it be and does it track well enough to pull moisture in from the gulf.

The feature we are talking about is still sitting just off the coast of Western Canada, not sampled at all so no run is set in stone by a long shot.

[orangeblood]

Euro coming in strong with the Christmas eve shortwave and has snow falling for West Texas and North Texas this Sat/Sun. It does the connection between the gulf low and upper level low and tries to pull moisture up and back (mini trowal) with an attempt to cutoff the 5h low.

With most winter storms coming out of the southwest US, I've noticed that a very important factor in determining snow/ice deep in the heart of Texas is the orientation of the upper level trough.

This moisture connection will be all about the orientation of this upper level trough as it moves across...if it becomes neutral-negatively tilted , like the European is depicting, than look out for a Christmas snow miracle!! But if it stays positively tilted and sheared like the GFS and Canadian (to a lesser degree) than there should be much lighter qpf with this system. A good sign is that the Euro has been top notch from 4 days out lately!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

I'm waiting for the Voice of Reality -- aka wxman57 -- to chime in ...

[aggiecutter]

Interesting tweet from Jim Cantore via Reed Timmer(2hrs ago).

"Models trying 2sort out timing & results of active pattern w/cold air blend. Chances of mid south #snow remain through at least end of 2011."

[HockeyTx82]

I'm waiting for the Voice of Reality -- aka wxman57 -- to chime in ...

I see he is online, we shall have our answer soon enough.................

[wxman57]

I'm waiting for the Voice of Reality -- aka wxman57 -- to chime in ...

Looks like 3-6" snow all the way down to Austin on Christmas Eve, Portastorm.

Hang on, I had my map upside down...

I'd be very cautious believing a single oddball run of any model. The Canadian has been the best to follow in the past 3-4 weeks. It's showing some precip, but air too warm for snow. You can hope/pray for a Christmas miracle but don't count on it to happen. We're getting close to the period when the GFS typically "has a clue" about what might happen this weekend. I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro's solution if the GFS and Canadian migrate in that direction in the next 24-48 hrs.

[Portastorm]

Hey ... I'm calling a foul on that one! I read the first sentence of your post and ran screaming down the hallway like a little girl.

And to think I voted for you for the Best Cycling Meteorologist of the Year award.

[hriverajr]

Portastorm.. you should have know better.. hahaha

[weatherdude1108]

I'm waiting for the Voice of Reality -- aka wxman57 -- to chime in ...

Looks like 3-6" snow all the way down to Austin on Christmas Eve, Portastorm.

Hang on, I had my map upside down...

I'd be very cautious believing a single oddball run of any model. The Canadian has been the best to follow in the past 3-4 weeks. It's showing some precip, but air too warm for snow. You can hope/pray for a Christmas miracle but don't count on it to happen. We're getting close to the period when the GFS typically "has a clue" about what might happen this weekend. I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro's solution if the GFS and Canadian migrate in that direction in the next 24-48 hrs.

I saw "snow", "Austin", and "Christmas Eve" in the same sentence, and briefly got goose bumps! Then I saw the silly map was wrong. Ok, back to normal.