Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

The Portastorm Weather Center will be issuing a statement later this afternoon about the chances of a White Christmas in Texas.

Is that before or after the Goose arrives?

[ndale]

I know this is asked and answered over and over again, but when does the euro run again?

[Brandon8181]

Breaking News: A legion of storm2kers have commenced at PWC chanting "Occupy PWC!" Led by Tireman4, the protesters demand the head in office to inject data into the Op models for a white Christmas!

This is looking to be a very serious situation. The PWC needs to make an announcement NOW!

-Brandon

[Longhornmaniac8]

So if the low tracks more southerly over Central Texas, as some of you have predicted, how would that affect precip/freezing precip chances across the state? Which sides of the system benefit the most, and which suffer? What about being right under it!?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

being right under it wouldn't do much at all.

Being north would be ideal, especially North west.

[Portastorm]

being right under it wouldn't do much at all.

Being north would be ideal, especially North west.

I would respectfully disagree. Being directly underneath the column of cold air associated with an upper-level low is ideal. Being slightly north/west of the ULL also is good but not as ideal as underneath it.

[aggiecutter]

If the 12z GFS is to be believed, one would have to drive to the Rocky Mountains or the Canadian border to see snow.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[orangeblood]

The 12z crazy Canadian has fallen off its rocker, what kind of run was that??

[ThunderSleetDreams]

being right under it wouldn't do much at all.

Being north would be ideal, especially North west.

I would respectfully disagree. Being directly underneath the column of cold air associated with an upper-level low is ideal. Being slightly north/west of the ULL also is good but not as ideal as underneath it.

Amarillo would disagree after the storm earlier this week. Dumas, Dalhart and Borger got the heavier snows.

[Portastorm]

ThunderSleetDreams ... go back and read the forecast discussions out of NWSFO Amarillo. The closed 500mb low ended up tracking further north and west than originally anticipated. The forecast discussions speak to it.

Here is a snippet from a relevant AFD out of Amarillo:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
944 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...POPS...AND WEATHER TYPE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT/S AMAZING WHAT A DIFFERENCE 50 MILES MAKES WITH RESPECT TO WINTER
WEATHER. CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTING...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL AS COLORADO AND KANSAS. CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...INCLUDING AMARILLO WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

[Ntxw]

The 12z crazy Canadian has fallen off its rocker, what kind of run was that??

Its been sniffing that hot sauce with the gfs lol things go poof and heat up!

[orangeblood]

GFS ensembles have increased precip but in turn bring in warmer air from the south. I'd feel much better about the cold air holding strong if this was an arctic air mass but it's not so..................

[iorange55]

GFS ensembles have increased precip but in turn bring in warmer air from the south. I'd feel much better about the cold air holding strong if this was an arctic air mass but it's not so..................

I am optimistic. I knew it would come down to the temp, I figured the models would come around on precip.

[Ntxw]

Euro resembles the NAM. DFW marginal with pockets of snows (probably via dynamic cooling from heaviest precip moving in) but if it's off by a degree could be some good snowfall.

[ravyrn]

Euro resembles the NAM. DFW marginal with pockets of snows (probably via dynamic cooling from heaviest precip moving in) but if it's off by a degree could be some good snowfall.

And we still have 60 hours of model runs for it to hopefully trend colder! *crosses fingers*

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

If its off by one degree how much snow is possible?

[Ntxw]

If its off by one degree how much snow is possible?

I wouldn't bank on it. Hope for flurries, anything else is a miracle of you go by consensus. Models have backed off on cold as we got closer the event.

[ndale]

Forecast for my area recently posted by Austin nws office says worst it will get is Friday night with a slight chance of rain and low temp of 36.

[Portastorm]

PWC’S WHITE CHRISTMAS FORECAST LEAVES MANY SEEING RED

Amidst a clamoring horde of Occupy Storm2Kers in attendance, the Portastorm Weather Center today publicly issued its Christmas Snow Forecast for Texas and the result was not promising.

“Based on the latest computer modeling and guidance from certain unnamed private-sector colleagues who enjoy cycling and live in the Houston area, we believe only a small portion of Texas will enjoy a white Christmas,” said PWC’s Lead Meteorologist. “Some light snow is possible from portions of west Texas up through Abilene into the Childress area. Outside of that, no snow for you Texas!”

The announcement was greeted by hooting and catcalls from the Occupy Storm2k audience who immediately demanded new data input into the computer models and a different forecast. Several questions were posed which went unanswered by PWC personnel, who then claimed they had an incoming weather instrument shipment which they must process.

The crowd was furthered angered when one of the audience members ran out back and took this photo (below).



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo...Likkered up for the holidays...