Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[orangeblood]

With split streams, The GFS is notorious for handing too much energy off to the northern stream, it did this a couple of weeks ago with the northeast storm that caught many people off guard. If this ULL is as strong as the NAM/Euro shows, they sometimes have a mind of their own and are very difficult to forecast where they end up.

[weatherdude1108]

South Central Texas 3:17 pm NOAA Discussion (one paragraph). We tried. Not banking on anything. The sun was out in full force today. First time in a while.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES
TO MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM
AND SATURATED MID-LEVEL...WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE NO ACCUMULATIONS OF FROZEN/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

based on the 48 hour predicted radar in the last page, if we had enough cold air, we could have all enjoyed an epic white christmas Houston folks will be stuck with mid 40's and rain.

[iorange55]

And the 18z GFS is looking like it's going to continue it's dry solution. It's always so frustrating when two models are so completely different this close to an event.

[orangeblood]

And the 18z GFS is looking like it's going to continue it's dry solution. It's always so frustrating when two models are so completely different this close to an event.

I would suspect it'll start to join the good guys (NAM,Euro) on tonights runs

[iorange55]

I would suspect it'll start to join the good guys (NAM,Euro) on tonights runs

Well, if it's anything like two years ago, then it will probably start to turn around tonight.

[iorange55]

Dallas/Fort Worth NWS likes the NAM

LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SLOWLY GRIND SOUTHWARD...REACHING
EL PASO AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SOME LINGERING
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MODELS THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS REMAINS.
BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE INITIAL
SPOKE OF ENERGY TO BEHAVE MORE LIKE A CUT-OFF. ALTHOUGH AN OUTLIER
YESTERDAY...THE NAM HAS APPROPRIATELY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FIRST IMPULSE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ENSUE IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED...BUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS THE LIFT
EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
SPREAD EASTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN/SNOW LINE GENERALLY WEST
OF THE METROPLEX. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMP/TD FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND THE LARGELY UNSATURATED PROFILE ALOFT...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING ELSEWHERE. BUT WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THIS EFFECT WOULD BE MINIMAL. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND RATHER MEAGER LIFT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. WHERE SNOW IS FORECAST...THE COLUMN IS SUB-
FREEZING...BUT THE BULK OF THE LIFT IS BENEATH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS SUCH...CURRENT THINKING WOULD PUT ONE-INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN ZONES ON THE UPPER END OF LIKELY
OUTCOMES. LIFT WILL LIKELY EXHAUST LATE CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A SLOWER EASTWARD EXIT OF PRECIP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

CURRENTLY...THE DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING MIGHT IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IF NOT
SNOW...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILES THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS. AS SUCH...A FLAKE OF SNOW CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

[Turtle]

Ugh, I hate how the freezing line in NE Texas disappears in the GFS/NAM models when the precip gets closer. Looks like nothing interesting till January maybe.

This is for Austin people:

[pwrdog]

I get the feeling if the last storm would have moved as forecasted, the increased snow cover over Texas might have made just enough difference for some wide spread snow event..

That is if this storm could pull in enough moisture..

Still not giving up on seeing a flake or two on the backside if the timing is right...

[Ntxw]

Hey at least things are going as scripted! Snow no snow, too dry moisture too far south, too warm, maybe a flake, an inch out west! Next thing you know a blizzard kidding. I just want a few flakes Christmas eve/night or Christmas morning. I hope santa is reading this!

[somethingfunny]

Watch the NWS`s temperature forecasts tonight and tomorrow to see if they verify and if they have a good handle on saturday's temps. Whatever the trending bias is, look for that to continue.

[iorange55]

I am putting my shoe in the shoebox and saying that the NAM is closer than the GFS, and I think some of North and Parts of Central texas get a little surprise. At least a few snow showers...

We'll see if the models tonight come together


Don't believe the information above. It's probably not correct and a blind monkey could probably predict the weather better than me.

[Tireman4]

Don't believe the information above. It's probably not correct and a blind monkey could probably predict the weather better than me.

Gee whiz, do not beat yourself up Iorange. Goodness. LOL

[iorange55]

Gee whiz, do not beat yourself up Iorange. Goodness. LOL

Lol, I was just putting it out there. It's possible, monkeys can be pretty smart.

0z NAM has started...let the fun begin.

EDIT: So far through 42 hours it looks like it continues to slow the system down even more.

[Snowshoe]

Gee whiz, do not beat yourself up Iorange. Goodness. LOL

Lol, I was just putting it out there. It's possible, monkeys can be pretty smart.

0z NAM has started...let the fun begin.

EDIT: So far through 42 hours it looks like it continues to slow the system down even more.

In our case, does slower=good?

[iorange55]

In our case, does slower=good?

If you want a chance of any snow on the ground or anything for Christmas...then yes!

The 0Z NAM looks like it holds the storm together for a longer amount of time, it's still a tight little storm through 54hrs.

[Snowshoe]

:O of course!! All I want for Christmas is snow!!!

[iorange55]

Looks like some decent moisture is still over some of North Texas even through 60hrs. Some heavier returns, as well. If the storm is stronger, maybe there will be more cooling than expected.

[Snowshoe]

Wish we could see a few inches, that'd be amazing!!

[Ntxw]

0z NAM (upper air analysis) doesn't look ideal for dendritic growth -8c, surface temps about 41-45 throughout the entire event mostly if taken as is for north Texas. San Angelo and Midland doesn't have the 850mb level to worry about because of elevation, all snow there looks good.