Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1381 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:13 pm

Maybe the Canadian wasn't crazy after all keeping the rain shields coming and coming one after another! A stalled ULL will do that.

iorange55 · #1382 Postby **iorange55** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:Maybe the Canadian wasn't crazy after all keeping the rain shields coming and coming one after another! A stalled ULL will do that.

Well, there is crazy-crazy, or crazy genius. Maybe the Canadian is a crazy genius? Who knows!

My best guess is lots of cold rain (maybe a few flakes of snow) tomorrow and some of Christmas. Then, I think we might finally get some snow when it starts moving, Monday, or Tuesday, or Wednesday, whenever it starts to move.

#1383 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:24 pm

iorange55 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Maybe the Canadian wasn't crazy after all keeping the rain shields coming and coming one after another! A stalled ULL will do that.

Well, there is crazy-crazy, or crazy genius. Maybe the Canadian is a crazy genius? Who knows!

My best guess is lots of cold rain (maybe a few flakes of snow) tomorrow and some of Christmas. Then, I think we might finally get some snow when it starts moving, Monday, or Tuesday, or Wednesday, whenever it starts to move.

Likely, too much warm air would be transported into the North Texas area if it were to stall out for a day or two. We actually want the upper level low to move and not stall out in West Texas. In the stalled out scenario, even the backside of the upper low passage might not bring in enough cold air in to make a difference.

iorange55 · #1384 Postby **iorange55** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:30 pm

TrekkerCC wrote:
Likely, too much warm air would be transported into the North Texas area if it were to stall out for a day or two. We actually want the upper level low to move and not stall out in West Texas. In the stalled out scenario, even the backside of the upper low passage might not bring in enough cold air in to make a difference.

I'd like the thing to move, too! It seems like it's not going to for awhile, though. It looks like the main problem with the backside is it's lacking moisture. It seems like most of the models show it to be cold enough once it eventually passes.

But, yeah. The storm isn't doing what we need it to do.

#1385 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:51 am

NWS Special Weather Statement from Austin.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
947 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
947 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

...RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY...

...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DUSTING
IN THE PANDALE AREA.

THE RAINS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE HILL COUNTRY CHRISTMAS EVE. AGAIN...NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ONE TENTH INCH OUT WEST UP TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
EAST.

THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL INTO WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

$$

iorange55 · #1386 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:00 am

Canadian still holds back a lot of moisture for Monday. Looks like it's showing a pretty close call monday/tuesday as the storm passes over. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

#1387 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:35 am

iorange55 wrote:Canadian still holds back a lot of moisture for Monday. Looks like it's showing a pretty close call monday/tuesday as the storm passes over. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Canadian model shows the same upper level stalling solution as the the others, but slower than the NAM and GFS, what is curious about the 00z Canadian is that there is a TROWAL like signature - the surface low in LA looks oddly placed at 72 hours- but anyway, if a TROWAL like development occurs - we would get some light precipitation on the backend (at least over red river counties, probably ). The problem is that the area of 850 0C temperatures is very small suggesting a warmish atmospheric column - likely, very few places would get any snow if the Canadian model was anywhere close to being correct. If the 00z EURO latches onto the stall/delay/continued deepening of upper level low solution, then all the models would be in general agreement.

This is direct model interpretation; no forecast but...anyway...

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

#1388 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:53 am

I am still hoping for a Christmas miracle tomorrow/Sunday somehow. Odds are against it, but I have family visiting from S Florida so anything would be nice for them. Regarding the ULL, there really isn't that much cold air here or in the country for that matter we're relying on the low to make some cold air which isn't always guaranteed. It could swing either way just because it's deep without real cold air it's tough even with a trowal.

uptowndallas · #1389 Postby **uptowndallas** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:37 am

Gentlemen. I'm not a model expert but I am a long time Dallas weather amateur. While I have been amazed at the winter weather results of the last two years, the history shows that it will not be cold enough to support snow or flurries. I live in downtown Dallas and I don't see anything below 35. It can still hope for flurries though:)

GRAYSONCO.WX · #1390 Postby **GRAYSONCO.WX** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:41 am

Are the models picking up on the precip in west Texas?

Turtle · #1391 Postby **Turtle** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:21 am

This looks pretty nice. 18Z NAM

#1392 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:18 am

What in the heck is taking FWD so long to issue the morning AFD? All it's going to say is

fakeNWS wrote:NO SNOW FOR YOU!

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FORECASTER GRINCH

edit: Duh, holiday staffing levels.

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #1393 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 7:22 am

Well, the FWD AFD is out and it makes sense why it is so late. Very long and fascinating read to tell us something Trekker told us in plain language yesterday. Trekker, you are a stinking genius.

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #1394 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 7:23 am

I'm in my iPhone so I cannot copy it in, but know that you guys will get to it.

#1395 Postby **gboudx** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:41 am

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Well, the FWD AFD is out and it makes sense why it is so late. Very long and fascinating read to tell us something Trekker told us in plain language yesterday. Trekker, you are a stinking genius.

Not surprised to see its from Cavanaugh. He writes very well detailed AFDs.

iorange55 · #1396 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:44 am

Going to be close, folks! Don't expect much and wish for a lot (that is my advice for you)

Looking at temps and dew points...

My house (Cedar Hill) is at 39 with a dew point around 29-30.

Fort Worth is at 37 with a dew point around 30.

Mineral Wells is at 36 with a dew point around 30.

Denton is at 36 with a dew point of 29.

So, that should allow for some cooling to happen, if the warm air doesn't take over.

EDIT: Snowing now in Abilene.

#1397 Postby **TexasF6** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:28 am

I see radar returns showing ice and snow signatures on intellicasts radar close to Austin...how interesting...

iorange55 · #1398 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:46 am

Looks like Eastland has changed over to snow now. I believe that is a little earlier than expected? Temp there is above freezing, so it's not sticking.

DonWrk · #1399 Postby **DonWrk** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:49 am

Sleeting and flurries here at the moment.

#1400 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:57 am

TexasF6 wrote:I see radar returns showing ice and snow signatures on intellicasts radar close to Austin...how interesting...

Austin, Texas, or Austin, Minnesota?

Meanwhile, my bro-in-law in Odessa is telling me they received 2-3 inches overnight and it is still snowing "like crazy."