Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Looks like Eastland has changed over to snow now. I believe that is a little earlier than expected? Temp there is above freezing, so it's not sticking.

SPC Map for wet bulb, roughly. That would make sense. Eastland-Denton-Mckinney line has wet bulb temps 32-34 if precip is hard enough. Stephenville-FW-Dallas is about 34-36.



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Edit: 850s are wayyy out into West Texas though, gonna have to fight warm air.

[iorange55]

It's gonna be a battle, one we will probably lose. Seems like the RUC holds back more moisture out to our west than the NAM or GFS are showing, as the magic line tries to move towards the east. Not sure if that precip will make it here, though.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It's gonna be a battle, one we will probably lose. Seems like the RUC holds back more moisture out to our west than the NAM or GFS are showing, as the magic line tries to move towards the east. Not sure if that precip will make it here, though.

Any chance Grayson County might see some snow?

[iorange55]

It's gonna be a battle, one we will probably lose. Seems like the RUC holds back more moisture out to our west than the NAM or GFS are showing, as the magic line tries to move towards the east. Not sure if that precip will make it here, though.

Any chance Grayson County might see some snow?

There is a chance, yeah! I just wouldn't get your hopes up for anything more than a few flakes.

[DonWrk]

Already more than a few flakes earlier this morning here in this part of Grayson county! Man I swear it seems like its been coming down non stop out there in west Texas. Seems like somewhere out there should have almost a foot by now.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Already more than a few flakes earlier this morning here in this part of Grayson county! Man I swear it seems like its been coming down non stop out there in west Texas. Seems like somewhere out there should have almost a foot by now.

How much have you gotten?

[DonWrk]

Already more than a few flakes earlier this morning here in this part of Grayson county! Man I swear it seems like its been coming down non stop out there in west Texas. Seems like somewhere out there should have almost a foot by now.

How much have you gotten?

Oh there has been absolutely no accumulations just some minor sleet and decent flurry action and that's it. Hopefully more to come.

[iorange55]

NWS UPDATE:

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT STEPHENS COUNTY AIRPORT DURING THE
PAST HOUR WHILE AN EARLIER REPORT FROM RANGER FD IN EASTLAND
COUNTY INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. BOTH LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTH INTO YOUNG COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE RIGHT
AT THE FREEZING MARK. STILL EXPECT A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE TODAY. 12Z NAM AND PREVIOUS GFS
ENSEMBLES DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT OVER YOUNG-STEPHENS-EASTLAND COUNTIES SO
CANNOT RULE THAT OUT. AT THIS TIME STILL DO NOT BELIEVE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REPORTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FURTHER EAST...RAIN IS ON THE INCREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN-SNOW COMBINATION SHOULD
EXPAND SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED THIS
FAR EAST.

30

[SouthernMet]

The problem for DFW is obviously the sfc temps but, also another possibility is the dry slot. DFW may get dry slotted at a crucial time when we could have gotten evaporative cooling. .SREF is close, RUC is not promising, nam 12 hr out frz line is right on top of Ft Worth with light precip out west.(Looks like it will be at or around freezing most of the day from Mineral Wells to bowie) We shall see how this plays out.

Look on the bright side, the best chance for metro to see flakes is when the ULL goes overhead imo.

[iorange55]

Look on the bright side, the best chance for metro to see flakes is when the ULL goes overhead imo.

I have been thinking/saying the same thing. Just have to hope it's not too dry and the ULL doesn't take too long to move overhead.

[aggiecutter]

The beginning of the Mid-January pattern change:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The beginning of the Mid-January pattern change:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Well hello there.....

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Sleeting at Coit and Arapaho in Richardson!!!

[Rgv20]

Right now is 47F cloudy with drizzle...perfect Christmas eve weather for the Rio Grande Valley

[TeamPlayersBlue]

44F and rain here in Sugar Land. Bone chilling cold today

[pwrdog]

Already more than a few flakes earlier this morning here in this part of Grayson county! Man I swear it seems like its been coming down non stop out there in west Texas. Seems like somewhere out there should have almost a foot by now.

Carlsbad is checking in with 1 foot... Hobbs is at 6 inches.. Midland at 3 inches..

[Turtle]

41F and cold rain here in East Texas. Tomorrow looks to be the same too.

[TexasF6]

I just reported FLURRIES mixed with rain, to my NWS office!!!! Yeah FLURRIES!!!!!!!!!!

[iorange55]

Went shopping and saw one or two sleet pellets. Felt like it got colder, but it's mainly just cold cold cold rain.

If that heavy moisture that the NAM and some of the other models are showing can back build a little further as the ULL passes, then I think the chances would increase for some snow as it passes.

NWS has mentioned there could be some snow as it passes, but think the precip will be very light and will mostly be too far east. Which is what the models are showing as of right now.

It could change, though.

[SouthernMet]

As we get closer to the 'event', not much has changed. . Tonight when the sun goes down, precip picks up in intensity, ULL gets closer, the action will pick up and things will get more intresting. . Guidance has the transition trying to creep in from the west before midnight. But backing off for the most part after passing Mineral Wells to Gainesville line. It just looks like our best hope is for the cold air to deepen further east but there's not much cold air to work with (we never tapped in to the colder air because it wasn't an artic front to begin with).

But I think this whole thing was built up by people I disagree with who were hoping for a white christmas . . . Well not gonna be the bearer of bad news, but it's not anyhere near the same setup. The potential is there for a 'suprise' but NOTHING like christmas eve 2009. .

Edit: When I say suprise, I still mean nothing significant for DFW.