Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[natlib]

Been a disappointing day in San Angelo. Had light rain all day, and just a degree or two too warm for snow. Its nice and.......damp.

[wxman57]

I just reported FLURRIES mixed with rain, to my NWS office!!!! Yeah FLURRIES!!!!!!!!!!

That's hard to believe given the latest RUC sounding for Austin. It shows the temperature from the surface to the top of the precip column to be in the 40-44F degree range (5-7C). Could it be you're seeing floating droplets of drizzle? Or are you not in Austin today?

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County has only been reporting light rain all day. No sign of any frozen precip in our area. Even a two-mile walk with Ringo the Weather Dog earlier this afternoon didn't yield any sign of frozen precip. Just chilly and damp.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It's sleeting in Sherman/Denison.

[TexasF6]

The SA/AUS folks issued a short term forecast earlier marking what I and I reckon others reported as well. There were a few flakes too, wet, but not drizzle. It was brief, and very cool to see!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Is the precip across north Texas supposed to increase overnight or decrease?

[SouthernMet]

Is the precip across north Texas supposed to increase overnight or decrease?

Models say increase. But just beware there could be a dry side.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Is the precip across north Texas supposed to increase overnight or decrease?

Models say increase. But just beware there could be a dry side.

Than you!

[ravyrn]

Well I was hoping for a Christmas miracle since the Euro gave us something to cross our fingers for a few days ago, but it didn't come to fruition in the Dallas area. If only there had been some arctic air to accompany this system. I'm throwing in the towel for this episode, but hopefully our luck of the past two winters will catch back up to us in January. Merry Christmas guys and hope those of you in extreme West Texas enjoy the White Christmas and best of luck to those nearer to our west of becoming fortunate with a Christmas Miracle!

[iorange55]

Still say watch sometime Monday. Latest NAM coming out shows the heavier precip getting even closer as the magic line tries to come in, when the ULL passes over us.

Seems like the trend has been to move that heavier precip a little further west. Just gotta hope there is enough cold air...


Merry Christmas to everyone! Or, Happy Holidays!

EDIT: Just wanted to clarify on what I said above. I am not predicting snow or anything, the moisture looks to shut off right when we might be cold enough. I am just pointing out that the trend seems to make it a closer and closer call. Just something to hope for before we have two weeks of nothing.

[SouthernMet]

Still say watch sometime Monday. Latest NAM coming out shows the heavier precip getting even closer as the magic line tries to come in, when the ULL passes over us.


EDIT: Just wanted to clarify on what I said above. I am not predicting snow or anything, the moisture looks to shut off right when we might be cold enough. I am just pointing out that the trend seems to make it a closer and closer call. Just something to hope for before we have two weeks of nothing.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE THIS EVENING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT IS RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT WITH ALL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING...MAINLY WEST
OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY FALL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED

[iorange55]

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE THIS EVENING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT IS RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT WITH ALL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING...MAINLY WEST
OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY FALL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED

Not sure why you bolded that particular part. I was talking about going into Monday which they mention at the end.

[Turtle]

Temp still holding steady at 41 here since noon. Very depressing how at just 10F cooler, this could have been 10-20"+ of snow.

At least it was very cold today. Didn't reach our expected high of 49.

[weatherdude1108]

The highlight of Christmas Eve. Lubbock office's discussion with "Jordan" using his own version of a famous Christmas story:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2011

NOTE...AVIATION AFD IS BELOW.

.UPDATE...
TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS AT LEAST FOR A BIT MORE...
AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE SNOW FALL OUTSIDE THE DOOR.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF CHRISTMAS DAY...
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE NOW THROWN IN THE FRAY

A TROWAL WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
AND MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WHILE THE SKIES STAY GRAY.
LIFT STAYS CLOSE BY AS THE LOW HARDLY MOVES...
BUT HOW CLOSE WILL IT BE AND WHICH MODEL TO CHOOSE?

BANDING WILL CONTINUE AS WE STAY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...
OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS THE SNOW WILL FALL SLOW.
SNOW WILL AGGREGATE INSIDE OF THE BANDS
AND ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES COULD COVER THE LANDS.

MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL SEE RATES A BIT LIGHT...
LESS THAN ONE HALF AN INCH WILL HOPEFULLY BE RIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE TRICKY WITH SNOW ALREADY DOWN...
7 INCHES IN HALE CENTER WITH AN INCH AROUND TOWN.

IF LIFT COMBINES WITH THE TROWAL AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE.
ALL MODELS HINT THAT THE TROWAL WILL BE NEARBY...
BUT THE EXACT LOCATION COULD MAKE ME THE FALL GUY.

WILL HOLD OFF ON CHANGES UNTIL ALL THE MODELS ARRIVE
SO THE MID SHIFT CAN EVALUATE AND SEE IF THEY JIVE.
3 TO 5 INCHES IS WHAT THE NAM TRIES TO ADD
BUT THE CMC SHOWS ONLY ONE AND THAT DIFFERENCE IS BAD.

IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS IN THE CONCERNS I HAVE STATED...
IT IS THAT THE MID SHIFT WILL BE HERE SOON AND HOPEFULLY GLAD
THAT I WAITED.
WILL KEEP ALL THE PRODUCTS GOING IN THE STATE THEY ARE NOW
AND HOPE AND PRAY THAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS I WON/T HAVE TO PLOW.

THE OTHER ISSUE IN PLACE IS THE LOW STAYS FOR A FEW DAYS...
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WHICH WE WILL HAVE TO APPRAISE.
TOO MANY THINGS TO CONSIDER IN THIS LAST HOUR ON OUR SHIFT...
AND THE TAFS STILL HAVE TO BE DONE BEFORE WE GO ADRIFT.

YET ANOTHER CHRISTMAS EVE IS ABOUT TO GO BY
AND MY AFD IS OUT FOR YOU TO ENJOY.
HOWEVER SOME FOLKS DO SAY THAT THIS TRADITION IS GETTING OLD...
THAT IT SHOULD DISAPPEAR LIKE CHEESE COVERED IN MOLD.

THE TRADITION WILL CONTINUE THAT STARTED SO LONG AGO...
OUR THOUGHTS IN RHYME THAT I STRIVE TO BESTOW.
SO ONCE AGAIN BEFORE WE HEAD OUT INTO STUFF FALLING THAT IS WHITE
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK...AND TO ALL A GOODNIGHT!

[Longhornmaniac8]

That is brilliant.

Merry Christmas to all.

Cheers,
Cameron

[austinrunner]

Model forecast (GFS, GEFS, NAM, SREFMEAN, NAEFS, CMC, CMCE, ECMWF, ECMWF Hi Res, UKMET) standard deviations from climatology can be found at the following website:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/training/SDs/

I'm sure a lot of you remember what standard deviations are, from your high school or college statistics classes. They are more accurate for the northern US than the southern US because climate averages in the south are not normally distributed. You can get much more background information here:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/training/

[wxman57]

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE THIS EVENING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT IS RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT WITH ALL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING...MAINLY WEST
OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY FALL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED

Not sure why you bolded that particular part. I was talking about going into Monday which they mention at the end.

They're saying that temperatures aloft will warm with time, meaning snow chances decrease with time (by Monday) as the air aloft warms.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models still showing big cold way out in the future. This is the most consistency it has shown all year and this event is passed 300 hrs lol. Not going to get too excited about it but it almost looks too perfect as of now. Big high crossing border in Montana with a shortwave hanging back just after the front. Again, 300 hrs out...

[Portastorm]

Dear Santa,

We winter weather fans won't mind it one bit if our present(s) come in January and/or February. We're hoping for one or two good "events" when you'll bring us sleet and snow. For your troubles, we're sending a special shipment of Grey Goose to you and missus, so you can cuddle up on those vodka-cold North Pole evenings. Thank you Santa!

The Portastorm Weather Center

[hriverajr]

Gosh the 12z models don't show anything special in Texas for the forseeable future, just mild days and chilly nights( after the low kicks out). Maybe the east coast gets a little fun later. The only interesting part is seeing when the upper/midlevel low actually stops retrograding, as it continues to cause snow in the panhandle