Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

If you've not seen the ECMWF at 192hrs on today's 00Z run go take a look. Blizzard for the east coast and single digits all the way into north Florida!!!

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro predicted surface temps for hour 192 and beyond and don't see any single digits in Florida. I see a light freeze for the panhandle next Wednesday. And I also see the Euro forecasting temps 20-30F above normal in western Canada next week.

I just caught that, I was looking at 850mb temps not surface.

[MGC]

I was just looking at the 12Z GFS run....0C at 850mb all the way down to Miami FL on 1/8/12 with a massive EC low. -10C at 850mb all the way down to the Gulf Coast. That would be cold. Hope this is a bogus run.....MGC

[BigB0882]

I am sure it will moderate but it could be a hint of some cold, even if it isn't THAT cold.

[Kennethb]

With the AO staying postive and lack of blocking up north, and other teleconnections showing non-favorable conditions for cold air, for now I see nothing than seasonal cold for the next 10-14 days. We still have mid January to mid February for any colder/winter weather. There are some slight indications that global patterns could change to bring us such. Though the consistency of the pattern so far is typical La Nina Weather and it will be hard to break this pattern.

[NDG]

I was just looking at the 12Z GFS run....0C at 850mb all the way down to Miami FL on 1/8/12 with a massive EC low. -10C at 850mb all the way down to the Gulf Coast. That would be cold. Hope this is a bogus run.....MGC

I have no idea what the euro was looking during the last few days with forecasting such cold temps for the gulf coast and FL for early next week with no blocking pattern in place or forecasted to take place through the next 7-10 days.
The euro's 7-10 day range H85 temp forecast for the deep south has been horrible, almost as bad as the CMC.

[wxman57]

Current GFS forecasts only +4C to +5C 850mb temps in south Florida next week. 00Z Euro is only a degree C colder than the GFS. For a while, the Euro was going -13C for 850mb temps over Houston, now it's at +5C. The "problem" is that there is no cold air in the source region of next week's cold front. That, combined with a lack of snow cover across the U.S. would make it impossible for any extreme cold to reach the Gulf Coast. I'm not sure why either model had such errors over the past few days.

[gsytch]

They are calling for 33-35F here in Tampa Bay for Tue/Wed then a warmup for the following weekend. I;ve seen 20's for north suburbs. Is this going to hold true? It has been such a warm December, I worry that the landscape will take a hit if it freezes......What do y'all think?

[MGC]

Looks like you might get a pretty good frost if it gets that cold in the Tampa area so you had better protect the tender vegatation.....MGC

[JonathanBelles]

I'm looking at the Wednesday to Thursday period of this upcoming week. The Tallahassee NWS has been toying with non-liquid precipitation across the area. Both temperature and moisture are marginal, but both the GFS and Euro have moisture in place at 850mb. In this case, temperatures will be the problem I think, with temps between 35-40 degrees on Thursday morning. The GFS is altogether too warm. The two models are quite a bit different over this time frame.

[TideJoe]

Season cancel?

Seriously, this has been the mildest I can ever remember December and early January. We're wearing shorts and flip flops in the South.

[Brent]

Hold that season cancel...

[BigB0882]

No good for me but hope someone gets in on that!

[BigB0882]

Remember how incredibly active this thread has been the last couple of years? I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this winter.

[Lane]

Looks like a sleet/snow event possible for area's north of B'ham AL Monday evening.

[Brent]

*shakes this thread awake*

From FFC just now:

MAIN CONCERN AND FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA INITIALLY AND
THEN MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER 00Z TUE AS ISENTROPIC PROFILES INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS...LIKELY PREVENTING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND INITIALLY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULB EFFECTS DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S ONCE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE GROUND.

LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS AND TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY...GOING
WITH A MIX AT ONSET FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATHENS AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. EXPECT NORTHERN STRIP TO ABOUT TWO COUNTIES DEEP TO WET
BULB ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...GENERALLY
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ROME TO GAINESVILLE. EXPECTING GENERALLY UP TO
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUE
MORNING. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH LIKELY ADVISORIES NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALSO CONCERNED THAT IN AREAS OF THIS
NORTHERN TIER WHERE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN THAT THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE ATLANTA METRO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...AGAIN EXPECTING A MIX
AT THE ONSET WITH LITTLE TO IN MOST CASES NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

[mitchelliii]

Well, it's not supposed to be a lot, but with this winter the way it is I will take anything I can get!

Bring it on!

[Brent]

Birmingham HWO:

A MIXTURE OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

My forecast, which was all rain 24 hours ago

Monday Night...Not as cold. Rain and chance of snow in the evening...then rain and snow after midnight. No snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

[bella_may]

I wish tommorows precipitation could make it here about 5 hours earlier.talk about a big snow event! *sigh*... one can only dream....

[MGC]

The clouds were starting to move in around sunset...should help keep the temps up....MGC

[bella_may]

The clouds were starting to move in around sunset...should help keep the temps up....MGC

Temps up where? Its already 37 degrees here