WTXS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 77.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS SYMMETRIC SPIRAL BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301517Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
SPIRAL BANDING ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE LLCC WITH A SMALL
BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 04S SEEMS VERY CLOSE TO
FORMING A SUSTAINED EYE-FEATURE AS INTENSITIES HAVE SHARPLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS STILL
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS COVERING THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65-77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP, ALONG WITH A
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC BENILDE IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
POLEWARD TAP INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FROM THE CURRENT TIME OUT TO TAU 48, TC
BENILDE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
PROPAGATING TROUGH. TC 04S SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SPIN-
DOWN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND BEGIN TO VEER ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH ASSUMES THE STEERING
FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36.
FROM TAU 48 ONWARDS THERE IS DISCREPANCY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVEST AREA (98S). MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYING SOME KIND OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT TO TAU 36. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO
FASTER DURING THIS TIME TO OFFSET THE RE-CURVING SCENARIOS DEPICTED
BY THE EGRR AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//
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This could jump 10-15 knots once that "red" shaded convection wraps all the way around the eye. So this should be a very good looking cyclone if it keeps organizing.
