WPAC:INVEST 98W

[Chickenzilla]

In South China Sea.

[francis327]

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZDEC2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0N 108.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE DEEPENED
AND BEGUN TO ORGANIZE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
ABOUT 7 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MARGINAL
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. SHIP OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
SHOW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST MONSOONAL WIND SURGE. NEAR THE LLCC, SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
300226Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A 15-KNOT UNFLAGGED SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
BARB. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

JMA's 39th depression, 40th system in total:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 05N 104E WEST SLOWLY.

[francis327]

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZDEC2011-010600ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 108.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF
SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL
YET WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED
ADJACENT TO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 310205Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A NORTHEAST
MONSOON SURGE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. A 310206Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES WEAK SHALLOW BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Not much left. What's left of the convection at 4.9/104.2 is about to move into Malaysia.

[francis327]

Moving onto the Peninsula Malaysia and Southern Thailand...

[hurricane25]

Appears that the LLC is just off the coast about 50 miles with most of its convection being sheared east of it. Oh, well.

[Grifforzer]

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

[Chacor]

Do you have a source for that? Please don't make bulletins up.

[francis327]

Chacor, I suppose the information obtained here

http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/warning/ca ... etarea_xi/

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 05N 104E WNW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

Chacor, I suppose the information obtained here

http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/warning/ca ... etarea_xi/

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 05N 104E WNW SLOWLY.

And nowhere in that does it mention 25 kt winds, or 40 kt gusts.

[francis327]

Code: Select all

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary
===============================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

-----------------------------------------------

Code: Select all

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HadesG ... ntrynum=35

It is updated by a blogger. Latest update as below

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 6.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Have a good day.

[francis327]

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600ZJAN2012-020600ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF SINGAPORE, HAS DISSIPATED AND
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary
===============================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

-----------------------------------------------

Code: Select all

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HadesG ... ntrynum=35

It is updated by a blogger. Latest update as below

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 6.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Have a good day.

Then they are not official updates, and shouldn't be posted here without the disclaimer.