Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[aggiecutter]

Today's GFS Ensemble forecast for the MJO looks very similar to the EURO Ensemble forecast. The MJO is currently in phase 6, will go briefly into phase 7, and loop back around to phase 5 by the 15th. This is bad news if you like winter weather.

GFS Ensemble MJO phase forecast through 1/15:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center disavows all rumors that it drew up the 0z European operational model run which showed "possible" winter weather in south central Texas.

PWC meteorologists however are remaining strangely quiet about the Occupy Storm2K rumors that the PWC ingested data into the just-issued 12z GFS operational model run which now (the 0z GFS run did not show said upper level low) shows a 500mb low crossing the middle of the state late on Sunday, January 8th into Monday, January 9th.

[wxman57]

Neither models indicates anything but cool rain at the Portastorm weather center...

[Rgv20]

Not buying what the 0zECMWF is selling PWC as its Ensembles would favor the 500mb Low track more toward the NE. Anything can happen tho!


On the right hand panel notice the dark purple shading over the Southwest which indicates a large spread among the Ensembles. Most the ensembles forecast the position of the 500mb low North to Northeast of the operational by next Sunday Evening.

[Ntxw]

Some thoughts regarding 12z suites today. Next weekend will probably feature a strong great basin storm. A couple of things to notice, GFS is too progressive. This year's climatology says this storm will be deeper and dig further south than what that model is showing, I like the Canadian/Euro look with a NW Mexico cutoff. It will also likely be slower to eject. Once again question will be how much cold air can the storm tap as it comes out somewhere in the panhandle. It is January so at least we have that on our side. But with the cutoff solution it will also likely bring up warm air, one thing is for sure we might get more rain for drought relief!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[natlib]

I think winter might be over.....

[Portastorm]

I think winter might be over.....

Only for Austin ... San Angelo is still in play.

[Rgv20]

FWIW the 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run dislodges the cold air and moves it south by mid month. It's forecasting 850mb Temperatures -10C for Dallas and -5C all the way south of the Rio Grande River by Saturday Evening (Jan 14)!

[Portastorm]

Wouldn't surprise me ... more and more signs are pointing to the mid January change we've talked about for the last week. The 0z GFS run tonight will probably go crazy after 288 hours and show us a Texas blizzard or something!

[Big O]

FWIW the 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run dislodges the cold air and moves it south by mid month. It's forecasting 850mb Temperatures -10C for Dallas and -5C all the way south of the Rio Grande River by Saturday Evening (Jan 14)!

In addition, the 12z ECMWF Ensemble control run shows even more frigid air in south central Canada and the northern U.S. Plains at the end of the run. There is a western ridge at this time, but it is not clear whether the Arctic Air wiil plunge south into the central and south-central US or southeast into the eastern US. However, this is 15 days away so this needs to be taken with much more than a grain of salt. With that said, it appears that there is, relatively speaking, increasing model support for a mid-month pattern change.

[weatherdude1108]

I'll take a south central Texas blizzard! We're statistically overdue for one. I would love for '85 to happen again! But if all we end up getting is a cold rain this year, then I'm good with that too. We need drought relief with any form of precipitation (preferably not hail).

[iorange55]

GFS continues to advertise a big shift in the weather 10+ days out. Tries to hit us with back to back cold surges.

It's looking like winter might arrive after all!

[Rgv20]

With the GFS having the backing of the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run and decent agreement among the GFS Ensembles I would place my bets on some widespread winter fun for parts of Texas starting mid month.


The Texas Panhandle may start early on the winter fun as I still think they have a shot of snow come Sunday and next Monday (Jan 8-9).

[Ntxw]

We can add the Canadian to the Alaskan ridge party. It's finally showing up in it's long range.

Time for some reverse psychology! Winter cancel for the Austin area! Everyone else north south east and west get ready! There's been rumor a heatist meteorologist has set camp near PWC in a potential hostile takeover!

[Rgv20]

We can add the Canadian to the Alaskan ridge party. It's finally showing up in it's long range.

Indeed it is....Take a look at the light blue colors (500mb 540dm) pinching north until the Bering Sea.

[Ntxw]

GFS/CMC/EURO all trended to an open trough coming into the southern plains next weekend. This probably means a colder solution. GFS is dry, Canadian is dry, euro has a southern plains snowstorm from I-20 north into Oklahoma extending back into the panhandle.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

[hriverajr]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

You must still wait the warmmongerers arrival and opinion. The longer he stays away the better your mood should be Portastorm... lmao

[wxman57]

Warm-mongerer has arrived (me). 12Z GFS still hopping all over the place after next weekend. It gave up on the TX snow on the 14th. However, it does indicate cooling temps in western Canada after the 14th.

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

You must still wait the warmmongerers arrival and opinion. The longer he stays away the better your mood should be Portastorm... lmao

There is truth to what you write, sir!

That being said, despite the warmmongerer's bias against cold weather, he (wxman57) is usually the voice of meteorological reality. The rest of us amateurs get jacked up on this model run or that model run or we've read something somewhere else that gets us excited about potential winter weather ... and then the "warmmongerer" chimes in and brings us back to earth!

Now ... when he chimes in and concurs about potential winter weather or the portent of an arctic outbreak ... then it is truly time to take notice. As he has said "don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger."

All kidding aside, I appreciate all he does on here and the time he spends patiently dealing with us.