Florida Weather

[NDG]

Temps across to hour north are still running as much as 5 degrees warmer than forecasted by models, hopefully it will be the same case for us here over the next couple of mornings.

[FireRat]

50 degs and dropping fast in my neighborhood in west Broward along with stiff winds. Looks like this one's the real deal folks. I wouldn't be surprised to see frost on the cars and grass like last winter by Wed morning. The forecasts seem to have trended even slightly colder today!

[FireRat]

Latest forecast from wunderground.com for Immokalee, FL (Inland South Florida) for Tuesday January 3rd: High 54, Low 25.

Simply amazing.

[northjaxpro]

Arctic boundary now through North Florida. The temperature has dropped 4 degrees this past hour and winds are now gusting from the northwest between 30-40 mph. Current temp at my north Jax home location at 3:45 am 38 degrees. Brutal wind out there. BRR!!! Temps will probably drop to or slightly below freezing by sunrise.

The modified arctic High pressure will continue to build into the region through Wednesday night. Well, cold air advection ongoing for today. It will be very cold and windy statewide as those stiff northwest winds will really make it brutal out there for our standards for sure! High temps today only forecast to reach the lower 40s across the Jax area. The wind will die down as the center of High Pressure gets closer to the peninsula by tomorrow morning. The coldest minimums will occur by tomorrow morning. The NWS office in Jax is forecasting a minimum temperature Wednesday morning of 22 degrees, which would tie the record for the date.

This event thankfully will be a very short-lived, but Old Man Winter is certainly packing a good punch with this cold shot for the next 36-48 hours.

[NDG]

6 AM with temps a good 5-8 degrees away from forecasted lows for this morning across central FL. I doubt that they will be reached with only 2 more hours to go.

[NDG]

Gotta my local NWS office, MLB.
They mention what I have been seeing the last couple of days from the models about H925 winds switching onshore towards the morning and the fact that MOS guidance usually bust in this area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...
...REMAINING COLD DURING THE DAY WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN PLACE
TONIGHT...

CURRENT...A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND SURGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL REINFORCE AN ALREADY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ALMOST AREAWIDE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DROP OFF THAN FORECAST
THUS FAR DUE IN PART TO SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
FROM THE WIND. ALSO COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN A
BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE IT APPEARS.

ADVISORY/WARNING UPDATES FOR THIS MORNING/TODAY: THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTH LAKE COUNTY RUNS
THROUGH 8 AM FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR FREEZING NEAR SUNRISE
...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 4 AM THIS MORNING AREAWIDE LASTING THROUGH 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND
FREQUENT GUSTS 25 MPH TO AROUND 30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO
BE IN EFFECT AREAWIDE FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR WINDS AND
LONG DURATION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY REINFORCING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAVE FOR
SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEASONAL AS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE READINGS
WILL BE OBSERVED NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH
EXPECT LOWER 50S WITH A FEW MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS SUNSET.

TONIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION POURS DOWN THE PENINSULA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS/LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER IN THE LOW 30S AND EVEN MIDDLE 30S
SAINT LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COASTS. NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...BUT AT PRESENT DO
NOT FEEL IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIDESPREAD ISSUANCE OF A HARD
FREEZE WARNING SO WILL ONLY UPGRADE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A
FREEZE WARNING...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE SAINT LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
UPGRADE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING OVER THE INTERIOR.

ANOTHER INTERESTING AND POSSIBLE SAVING FACTOR ALONG THE COAST IS
THAT THE GFS AT 925 MB SHOWS WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN
06Z-12Z WHICH WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE READINGS IN THESE
PLACES AND POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING HERE. NONETHELESS...DID STAY ON AVERAGE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AS CENTRAL FLORIDA TEMPERATURES DO TEND TO BUST
FOR MARGINAL FREEZE EVENTS. ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 5 MPH IN MOST
PLACES. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT DOES REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WOULD HISTORICALLY FAVOR THOSE PLACES
FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES. WITH WINDS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND
LARGE ENOUGH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...STILL DO NOT FORESEE ANY
DECENT FROST FORMATION OCCURRING. ALSO A REMINDER...THAT OUR
GUIDANCE FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 10 MPH OR
GREATER AND THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN SO DO NOT EXPECT A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT.

WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS...
NORTHWEST 10 MPH OR LESS. AFTER A VERY COLD EARLY MORNING...MAX
TEMPS WILL MODIFY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TUE...UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT THIS IS STILL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WED NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE PENINSULA. THE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST TO OUR NORTH. THE COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...NEARER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST TO
MOST ZONES...BUT THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR WIND PROTECTED SPOTS IN
THE NORTH.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=31

[northjaxpro]

Just measured 29.4 degrees at 7:25 am at my north Jax location. The northwest winds are blowing in the 10-20 mph range currently. However, much less than the 30 to near 40 mph gusts I had here between 3am-4 am this morning when the arctic boundary came through. This is only the second measured freeze at my location this season. Tomorrow morning will be colder as the winds will die out and excellent radiational cooling will take place. Dew point temps right now in North Florida nearing the single digits. A pretty impressive transient modified arctic air mass over the region for the next 36-48 hours.

[NDG]

This is what I call a "good" bust of forecasted lows for this morning across much of the Peninsula for this morning, temps are a good 3-5 degrees warmer than forecasted across central FL, hopefully it will be the same case for tomorrow morning.

Forecasted lows this morning:


7:50 AM temps:

[northjaxpro]

It bottomed out at 29 degrees at my location this morning. NDG good point about the MOS numbers. They panned out being about 3-4 degrees warmer than initially projected for the Jax area for the minimums this morning. We will see how tomorrow morning pans out.

[dizzyfish]

Well, yesterday the NWS was calling for 25* for Wednesday morning. This morning that changed to 21*.

We are generally 2 - 4 degrees cooler than the forecast. YUCK

I gotta figure a way to keep the well pump from freezing tonight.

[psyclone]

they changed mine from 33 to 26. ouch. i hope it doesn't happen and my instinct tells me it won't get that cold but if the wind comes a little east of north (as is currently forecast) that will drive the frigid interior air right to the coast.

[NDG]

Definitely the west coast of FL will be way colder than the east coast for tonight as winds become more NNE during the night any you will not be safe from the GOM as you were last night. So prepare for the worst but hopefully the MOS forecasted lows will bust again like they did this morning.
GFS & NAM are still persistent in that parts of the east coast from Daytona on southward the winds at H925 will turn onshore and humidity levels might go up at those levels, so the immidiate eastern coast may not get the perfect radiational cooling to get down to freezing levels.
NAM is even showind some low clouds to more over SE FL late tonight into the morning hours.

[gatorcane]

This appears to be the real deal folks even for you in Pinellas:

Hard Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
323 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A HARD
FREEZE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
TO THE UPPER 20S FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FLZ050-065-041400-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FZ.W.0003.120104T0500Z-120104T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KTBW.HZ.W.0002.120104T0300Z-120104T1400Z/
PINELLAS-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
323 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES. TENDER PLANTS WILL BE KILLED AT THESE TEMPERATURES
IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING
THESE PLANTS INDOORS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 28
DEGREES FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MORE
THAN 2 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

$$

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ze+Warning

[summersquall]

And, from the east coast:

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
431 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...

...HARD FREEZE FORECAST FOR INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST...

FLZ047-054-059-064-041400-
/O.CON.KMLB.FZ.W.0002.120104T0400Z-120104T1400Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...VERO BEACH...
FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND
431 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATUES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LONGEST DURATIONS OF UP TO 8 HOURS IN RURAL INTERIOR SECTIONS.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH DAMAGE TO COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS AND VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE. FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTH
BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IF POSSIBLE TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND ENSURE PETS HAVE ADEQUATE
SHELTER. IMPROPER USE OF SPACE HEATERS ARE A SIGNIFICANT CAUSE OF
FATAL HOUSEHOLD FIRES IN FLORIDA DURING THE WINTER SEASON.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GLITTO
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ze+Warning

[northjaxpro]

The sun has just set and the temp is already sitting at 36.7 degrees currently. Temps should be below freezing by 8 p.m. this evening. Looking at potential of up to 12 hours of below freezing temps up through tomorrow morning. The record low of 22 degrees for tomorrow's date certainly may be tied or broken in the morning at the Jax NWS office in my viicinity.

[gsytch]

It is dropping here just N of Tarpon Springs. Winds died down just so the temps can go down as well. It is brutal out there, and after such beautiful weather what a heart wrenching blow!

[psyclone]

42 with a dewpoint of 11 at 6pm in orlando. 43 with a dewpoint of 22 in tampa. this could get ugly.

[FireRat]

40 already at my west Broward location....yikes!

[northjaxpro]

The wind has really dropped off considerably at this hour already and the temperature is currently 30.3 degrees at 8:15 p.m. Excellent radiational cooling conditions. If the wind dies down to near calm during the night, temps are really going to bottom out. Very possible we will see some record lows in the morning in several areas.

[JonathanBelles]

Hit freezing at the airport here in Tally at 7:30...currently 28 degrees. Still above freezing here on campus, but not by much.