Florida Weather

[NDG]

Impressive, even in areas of central FL sheltered from winds temps have fallen to near freezing already, while areas where winds have stayed up temps remain near 40, at least for the moment.
New 0z NAM is still persistent that winds near H925 will turn onshore along parts of the eastern FL coast from Daytona Beach on southward after midnight towards daybread, so areas near I-95 to the barrier Islands from Daytona on southward may luck out from freezing temps.

[psyclone]

Hit freezing at the airport here in Tally at 7:30...currently 28 degrees. Still above freezing here on campus, but not by much.

upper teens at tally seems likely. along with those stations in the suwannee river valley down toward brooksville.

[psyclone]

BTW Brooksville is already down to 27 at 9pm. considering they are at about the same latitude as orlando, that is something. Tampa is 40 and st pete clearwater is 44.

[NDG]

Yeap, Brooksville seems to always get the best of cold air drainage down the Peninsula, especially when winds are from the N & NNE, while Orlando gets a little more protected from area Lakes and to some degree the Atlantic waters.

[northjaxpro]

Hit freezing at the airport here in Tally at 7:30...currently 28 degrees. Still above freezing here on campus, but not by much.

upper teens at tally seems likely. along with those stations in the suwannee river valley down toward brooksville.

Agreed! I think upper teens are also very possible interior locations of Northeast Florida as well. Winds are currently calm and the current temp is 28.2 degrees at my location in north Jacksonville at 9:35 p.m.

[gatorcane]

The Tampa Bay area is about to get rocked tonight looking at MOS guidance. Wait until the winds die off later......

This could surpass the past three winters as far as how cold it gets there even deep into Pinellas which normally escapes.

[NDG]

Meanwhile surface winds in my area have actually gone up a little from under 5 mph near sunset to 5-8 mph now, so there is hope that they will not go completely calm in the Orlando area.

[psyclone]

it's interesting to think that this arctic airmass made it down here with pretty impressive integrity despite a dearth of snowcover up north. what if this was last december when snowcover extended to the tn/al line and the north ga mountains? it could indeed be worse. snowcover clearly helps an airmass stay cold but it's certainly not essential. much of florida is sub tropical. tonight's weather is fulfilling the "sub" part of that term! a side benefit of the extreme cold the last couple of winters is that there is less to destroy around here in a freeze. kinda like getting whacked by two hurricanes of equal intensity in quick succession...the second one is gonna hurt less since the first one already did its share of dirty work.

[psyclone]

The Tampa Bay area is about to get rocked tonight looking at MOS guidance. Wait until the winds die off later......

This could surpass the past three winters as far as how cold it gets there even deep into Pinellas which normally escapes.

MOS guidance frequently overcooks freeze events. i've seen it tons of times. st pete clearwater actually rose a degree from 9 to 10 up to 45. i'm not convinced of a hard freeze in the immediate bay area but the potential certainly exists.

[NDG]

0z NAM MOS guidance actually shows temps a couple of degrees warmer at least for the Tampa and Orlando area than its 12z run. And most important it keeps winds near 5 knots for both Tampa and Orlando through out the night, enough to keep the air mixing.
If it verifies, upper 20s are out of the question for at least the emmidiate Tampa and Orlando urban areas.
Now lets see if the 0z GFS MOS does the same.

[summersquall]

Hopefully the Atlantic waters will mitigate the temps. Windchill is at 38 degrees. My thoughts are with the farmers and the many who don't have central heat or any measurable insulation in their homes. Thank God for polar fleece!

Stuart, Witham Field Airport
Lat: 27.18 Lon: -80.22 Elev: 20
Last Update on Jan 3, 10:15 pm EST

Fair

43 °F
(6 °C)
Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: NW 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.38"
Dewpoint: 21 °F (-6 °C)
Wind Chill: 38 °F (3 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-80.2309

[NDG]

it's interesting to think that this arctic airmass made it down here with pretty impressive integrity despite a dearth of snowcover up north. what if this was last december when snowcover extended to the tn/al line and the north ga mountains? it could indeed be worse. snowcover clearly helps an airmass stay cold but it's certainly not essential. much of florida is sub tropical. tonight's weather is fulfilling the "sub" part of that term! a side benefit of the extreme cold the last couple of winters is that there is less to destroy around here in a freeze. kinda like getting whacked by two hurricanes of equal intensity in quick succession...the second one is gonna hurt less since the first one already did its share of dirty work.

I think that it had to do more with the strong & sharp ULL shortwave that dug down at the same longitude of FL than snow cover, the trough brought down H85 temps down to -10 deg C and a thickness of only 932 in Jacksonville this morning. I find it that cold air makes its way down the FL Peninsula way easier when it has a strong ULL support like it had this morning.

[psyclone]

it's interesting to think that this arctic airmass made it down here with pretty impressive integrity despite a dearth of snowcover up north. what if this was last december when snowcover extended to the tn/al line and the north ga mountains? it could indeed be worse. snowcover clearly helps an airmass stay cold but it's certainly not essential. much of florida is sub tropical. tonight's weather is fulfilling the "sub" part of that term! a side benefit of the extreme cold the last couple of winters is that there is less to destroy around here in a freeze. kinda like getting whacked by two hurricanes of equal intensity in quick succession...the second one is gonna hurt less since the first one already did its share of dirty work.

I think that it had to do more with the strong & sharp ULL shortwave that dug down at the same longitude of FL than snow cover, the trough brought down H85 temps down to -10 deg C and a thickness of only 932 in Jacksonville this morning. I find it that cold air makes its way down the FL Peninsula way easier when it has a strong ULL support like it had this morning.

that's a good point. it is interesting to watch these events unfold. if we had combined that upper level support with a low latitude extent of snowcover, or an even colder airmass, that would be the whopper type freeze event that changes the landscape for a long time.

[psyclone]

Tampa and st pete clearwater 11pm reports are just in. they are both identical to their 9pm readings of 40 and 44 respectively. i'm feeling cautiously optimistic at this point.

[northjaxpro]

Temperature now down to 26.4 degrees just past 11 p.m. Looks to be on track to drop to around the 18 -20 degree range by sunrise tomorrow morning here at my location. Pretty impressive indeed as the radiational cooling is absolutely ideal currently with the calm conditions.

[FLCrackerGirl]

Vero Beach down to 38 at 11pm ... Okeechobee is at 32 already

[NDG]

High pressure axis so far stayed in the far western FL Panhandle with pressure readings in that area near 1031mb while SE FL is reading pressures near 1028mb, that's enough of a pressure gradient to keep winds up for most of the unsheltered areas of central & southern FL.

[gsytch]

Woke up at 4am to 32.8F here in New Port Richey (one mile from coast) when it was already down to 35.6F at 9pm, so it definitely leveled off some. Now at 545am we finally got below freezing at 31.0F although my digital is 10ft up. That is a significant drop just before dawn that is expected. However, it could have been much worse. Still, considering the lack of northern snow cover, an obviously warm land and a warmish GOM this is impressive. I seriously doubt the "warm" temps that are appearing. Tampa reports a lower dewpoint than I do yet they are staying at 36F. My guess is the "tourist thermometer" is at work again (as we often joke about like last years deicing debacle at TIA when it was 34F). 24F at Zephyrhills and 25F at Floral City show the extent. Balm FAWN south of Tampa is at 27F!

[NDG]

Most of I-95 corridor south of Daytona along with the Barrier Islands did not see a freeze, & the only areas that did see a hard freeze on the peninsula in central FL where the rural interior areas, well away from the coast, except as always the Nature Coast.
Tampa & Orlando did not see a hard freeze, with their most central urban areas not even getting down to freezing. Looks like that the immediate coastal areas & Barrier Islands of the west coast at least did not get the hard freeze that was forecasted, doubt that the Barrier Islands got down to freezing. Most of Miami area did not get down to the upper 30s as forecasted.
This is what I call again, a "good" bust of forecasted lows. Though is always good to forecast the worst just be in the safe side.

[northjaxpro]

It appears that we did not break or tie the record low at the NWS Jax office. The temperatures leveled off overnight and the NWS office so far has recorded a low of 24 degrees, which is 2 degrees off the record low for this date.