Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Rgv20]

It's from Accuweather Pro...This is the description that they give it "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Predition System. This is NOT an ensemble mean"

Never the less it looks like it is way over done with the cold air!

Hmm, it doesn't appear to match any of the ensemble runs or the operational run.

Taking a look at the operational and the control run thru 10 days it does look fairly similar......by 270hrs 6zSunday 15 Jan its when the cold air starts sneaking in to the Texas Panhandle.

Just my opinion of course and I have not been following the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run that long, but sometime it feels like its just an extension (Goes out to 15 days vs the operational 10 days) of the operational ECMWF.

[wxman57]

It's from Accuweather Pro...This is the description that they give it "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Predition System. This is NOT an ensemble mean"

Never the less it looks like it is way over done with the cold air!

Hmm, it doesn't appear to match any of the ensemble runs or the operational run.

Taking a look at the operational and the control run thru 10 days it does look fairly similar......by 270hrs 6zSunday 15 Jan its when the cold air starts sneaking in to the Texas Panhandle.

Just my opinion of course and I have not been following the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run that long, but sometime it feels like its just an extension (Goes out to 15 days vs the operational 10 days) of the operational ECMWF.

Strange, the EC ensembles have above-normal temps moving into Texas at 270 hrs.

[orangeblood]

wxman57 - You're showing a map the day before the 1983 outbreak....How do we know what the temps in Western Canada are going to be over 10 days from now, when some of the models are forecasting the outbreak?? Most long range models are forecasting temps in western Canada to reach close to levels seen prior to the 1983 outbreak. Shouldn't you be referencing a map at least 10 days out, maybe around December 10, 1983?? Temps in western Canada in early December 1983 weren't too far off from where they currently sit.

Just confused on why you showed the map referenced above??

[Portastorm]

Well, I just looked at the 0z Euro ensemble runs from 6-10 days and I would tend to believe a warming up period for Texas, given the above normal temps progged for central/western Canada and the intermountain West. The 500mb pattern shows deep troughs off the Pacific coast and the Eastern US coast and a big ridge in the middle. Should it verify, that would indicate that by the middle of January there is no portent of an Arctic outbreak.

This is going to be interesting because there are other signals that suggest the pattern will change to much colder by mid month. And, as we have discussed, La Nina winters almost always have a period of time (several weeks) where crazy cold rules much of the nation.

I'm still a believer in the idea of a pattern change to much colder but thinking it may be more like Jan. 23rd and beyond for us in Texas. As much as it pains me, I am going to agree with the venerable wxman57.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im confused on AustinRunners thesis... The 1070MB high doesnt pop up by mistake. The GFS doesnt do random, if it thinks something is possible given those particular conditions, it will make it in the run. Is it likely that it will happen? No, but like someone stated earlier, its a sign of things to come. Just like last Jan, it saw a massive cold snap coming. It wasnt as cold as forecasted 300hrs out, but it was still record breaking. (in Feb.)

Even though the 1071MB high is gone, it still shows the mechanisms for cross polar flow.Might take a month, might be in 2 weeks, but some cold air is coming for the US.

[wxman57]

I agree some cold will eventually come to Texas, but probably beyond the next 2 weeks. Best bet would be late January into February. Latest GFS is indicating 850mb temps 20-25C below normal in western Canada by the 20th. One caveat though is that the GFS often indicates such extremes (that never materialize) in the long range.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z GFS is out, again sees very cold air building in alaska with increasing heights, Polar vortex is over Hudson bay, but the PNA looks to be negative. Still a long way out, but it's still in the cards.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I've found the 12Z GFS is a crap shoot...

[orangeblood]

I've found the 12Z GFS is a crap shoot...

The most important aspect of these GFS runs is that it builds big time cold into Canada over the next few weeks!!! As the second stratospheric warming episode works it way across Alaska and Northern Canada, I would expect the PV to shift further south and bring a big chuck of this arctic air down into the lower 48....now trying to forecast when and where that will occur is beyond any sort of reasonably accurate time frame. But one thing appears certain, there will be a heck of a battle zone (snow/ice) wherever that arctic boundary sets up!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There is a second SSW event coming? I thought this is still a result of the first one lol

[aggiecutter]

My good friend and weather GURU JB just twitted that the trough is forecasted to move east of Hawaii. During his days at Accuweather, that was his money in the bank teleconnection for prolonged cold weather east of the Rockies.

[HockeyTx82]

A much better indicator (than the 500mb flow) of potential cold in Texas is the source region of the cold air. If it's not cold to our north, then it's not going to get extremely cold down here.

And if it's very cold to our northwest, there's no guarantee it's going to become very cold in Texas. Time and again, very cold air in northwest Canada has never reached Texas because the 500 mb pattern was not conducive for it to migrate here. Contrary to what's often said on this board, cold, dense air does not have a mind of its own.

If you don't like what's said on this board no one is making you stay here. I don't see a pro met tag for your account so I am not sure what backing you have other than like us you read websites like this and perhaps model maps online. If you are a pro met or have some certs of some kind message the admins and they can get you setup with a Pro Met tag I assume. I am not a moderator and I visit this site for educational purposes as well as getting a look into "la la" land as we like to call it. It's not like we claim on this board to control the weather or anything.

If you don't like the weather in Texas or what's said on this board just wait five minutes!

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm going to jump in here for a sec. Texas Winter wont get going till around Jan 23rd and last thru Feb 10th after that it's cool to mild till Spring fully starts in mid March.

How do I know this, well.........I just do....lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Hello everyone, it's been a long time since I dropped in on S2K. I hope all is well with you and your family.

Now on to my favorite subject "Winter" and what will be or wont be. Well with all things said I see this being another La Nina winter though not near as strong or as persistant. This is not good news for those of us in the worst drought since the 1950's.

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro. -(It Happened)

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough. (It Happened)

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter. (It Happened)

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry. (It Happened)

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry. (Not a Cold start but it was chilly - )

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet.

Well that's my 2 cents worth of weather forecasting for today. Stay cool and pray for RAIN!!

[wxman57]

I'm going to jump in here for a sec. Texas Winter wont get going till around Jan 23rd and last thru Feb 10th after that it's cool to mild till Spring fully starts in mid March.

How do I know this, well.........I just do....lol

That looks like a fair possibility. I can't believe I'd be lucky enough to have the current relatively warm weather across TX for the rest of the winter. Cold air will come later this month.

[Portastorm]

I'm going to jump in here for a sec. Texas Winter wont get going till around Jan 23rd and last thru Feb 10th after that it's cool to mild till Spring fully starts in mid March.

How do I know this, well.........I just do....lol

That looks like a fair possibility. I can't believe I'd be lucky enough to have the current relatively warm weather across TX for the rest of the winter. Cold air will come later this month.

Better get those bike rides in now, wxman57!

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are already drawing up vodka cold maps for late in January for Texas. They'll also include a nice winter weather event for your part of Harris County!

Edit update: Anyone see the 12z Euro? At 240 hours, we have a polar airmass draped across Texas and a cutoff low to our southwest. I think Ntxw drew that map up!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The cutoff low looks to be a bit far away though dont you think?

[orangeblood]

^^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah, unlike most of the winter so far, any system moving out of the southwest should should be plenty of cold air to tap into starting late next week!!!

[Portastorm]

The cutoff low looks to be a bit far away though dont you think?

Yes, it is ... but my point is that the airmass will be colder ... there will be upper-level energy to our southwest. I'm not all that concerned with exact locations at this point. Should the model verify (and yes, I know it is 240 hours out and everything else so spare me the "don't you know that the Euro accuracy at 240 hours is 22.7%") ... the setup will be interesting. I'm not saying it will snow in North Texas. But what I am saying is that a pattern like that *could be* conducive to winter weather in Texas.

Based on what I saw from the 12z GFS and Euro runs, I think things start to unravel for the warmmongerers starting next weekend. By the weekend of the 21st, I think we're gonna see a lot of action on this forum!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im watching for the omega block over Alaska, models are still showing very cold air building in the NW Territories. Look at that 1048 High just south of the Aleutians...