Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[orangeblood]

hmmmmmm.....I realize it's an outlier but today's JMA run has a full fledged winter storm forecast across northern Texas into Oklahoma then the Arklatex early next week. Similar look to what the European had a few days ago and what the GFS seems to be trending towards, just deeper/colder!!

[aggiecutter]

The cutoff low looks to be a bit far away though dont you think?

Yes, it is ... but my point is that the airmass will be colder ... there will be upper-level energy to our southwest. I'm not all that concerned with exact locations at this point. Should the model verify (and yes, I know it is 240 hours out and everything else so spare me the "don't you know that the Euro accuracy at 240 hours is 22.7%") ... the setup will be interesting. I'm not saying it will snow in North Texas. But what I am saying is that a pattern like that *could be* conducive to winter weather in Texas.

Based on what I saw from the 12z GFS and Euro runs, I think things start to unravel for the warmmongerers starting next weekend. By the weekend of the 21st, I think we're gonna see a lot of action on this forum!

Don't you know that the EURO accuracy at 240 hours is 22.7%. However, the chance of an omega block forming over the Austin area is about 99.99% for the rest of the winter.

[Portastorm]

There's one in every group.

[Tireman4]

The cutoff low looks to be a bit far away though dont you think?

Don't you know that the EURO accuracy at 240 hours is 22.7%. However, the chance of an omega block forming over the Austin area is about 99.99% for the rest of the winter.

Uhh oh.....

[Ntxw]

Edit update: Anyone see the 12z Euro? At 240 hours, we have a polar airmass draped across Texas and a cutoff low to our southwest. I think Ntxw drew that map up!

Oh gosh how'd that get in there . I was saving that in my February vault!

Models are still not showing a clear picture for early next week. Timing is very different run for run, model for model. Behind this storm will be an intrusion of cold air and how these two systems interact/phase/not phase and whatnot can have very different looks. It's all about timing and track as usual!

[natlib]

So this morning I saw a flock of geese flying west. What does that mean??? LOL

[weatherdude1108]

Hello everyone, it's been a long time since I dropped in on S2K. I hope all is well with you and your family.

Now on to my favorite subject "Winter" and what will be or wont be. Well with all things said I see this being another La Nina winter though not near as strong or as persistant. This is not good news for those of us in the worst drought since the 1950's.

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro. -(It Happened)

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough. (It Happened)

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter. (It Happened)

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry. (It Happened)

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry. (Not a Cold start but it was chilly - )

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet.

Well that's my 2 cents worth of weather forecasting for today. Stay cool and pray for RAIN!!

Definitely praying for rain and cool, but definitely rain if I have to choose!

I know this is a winter weather forum, but the 3:10 pm Central Texas Discussion hints at rain at least in the last paragraph:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION IS STILL NOT PLAYING NICE WITH
THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...BEING THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. WE WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL
THE END RESULT IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

[Rgv20]

The 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run backed off considerably regarding the full fledged Arctic assault it had for the US. Just like the 12zGFS tho 12zECMWF Control Run is forecasting 850 Temps to really plummet (Shows a wide swath of -30C) in NW Canada in the long range.

[Ntxw]

Man the models have been cranking up the early week system. So far most keep it on track underneath a ridge so has warmer air with LOTS of rain. But the cold air intrusion is not too far behind as the system goes negative tilt and looks like a lakes cutter which usually portrays an incoming cold air mass. Should the system wait or timing is off in initiation by 24+- hours the JMA solution is not out of the realm of possibilities. Currently the system is in the central Pacific Ocean.

[Rgv20]

Models are still not showing a clear picture for early next week. Timing is very different run for run, model for model. Behind this storm will be an intrusion of cold air and how these two systems interact/phase/not phase and whatnot can have very different looks. It's all about timing and track as usual!

Take a look at the Corpus afternoon discussion...

MODEL AGREEMENT VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARS AS EACH
MODEL HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE NEXT EVENT. GENERAL PICTURE
IS FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF WHILE A TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EVOLVES INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW. AS ENERGY FEEDS INTO THE
NORTHERN UPPER LOW...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE...SHUNTING THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THE GFS DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE ITS FIFTH DIFFERENT SOLUTION IN
THE LAST FIVE RUNS...NOW DELAYING THE CUTOFF OF THE UPPER LOW UNTIL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE CWFA. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW BACK NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPSTREAM
ENERGY. THE ECMWF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD APPEARS OVERLY STRETCHED
AND ITS PRECIPITATION FIELDS FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE
EMERGES.

[aggiecutter]

Someone explain something to me. I've noticed that on some runs of the EURO, it will have two sets of information on some, but not all forecast hour panels. For instance, the 96 hr forecast from the 0z operational run has: SUN 120108/0000v96 : THU 590108/0000v00. I understand the first set of parameters, but what is the second of parameters. Thursday is not the forecast or initialization time. 0108 is forecast the date, but what does 59 mean. I see this same template used in about half of the EURO panels.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

18Z GFS is going crazy with next week's storm, wow!

[orangeblood]

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been very consistent on brutally cold air building across Canada next week. This brutally cold air, if it was to verify, will be very dense and should beat the models as far as the southern extent of the arctic boundary. Wherever this boundary sets up, thats where the fun and games should be and would expect the models to trend further south with time!! imo

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been very consistent on brutally cold air building across Canada next week. This brutally cold air, if it was to verify, will be very dense and should beat the models as far as the southern extent of the arctic boundary. Wherever this boundary sets up, thats where the fun and games should be and would expect the models to trend further south with time!! imo

Have you taken a look at the warming forecasts lately for the stratosphere? The next wave seems to be even stronger and has potential to beat down the PV even more!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

[orangeblood]

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been very consistent on brutally cold air building across Canada next week. This brutally cold air, if it was to verify, will be very dense and should beat the models as far as the southern extent of the arctic boundary. Wherever this boundary sets up, thats where the fun and games should be and would expect the models to trend further south with time!! imo

Have you taken a look at the warming forecasts lately for the stratosphere? The next wave seems to be even stronger and has potential to beat down the PV even more!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

Yeah, it makes you think this pattern might lock and hold for awhile. Those would be some crazy height rises building across Alaska into the Yukon Territory, if this forecast were to verify, possibly making the Arctic Express train quite long...sending one Arctic High after another into the lower latitudes.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been very consistent on brutally cold air building across Canada next week. This brutally cold air, if it was to verify, will be very dense and should beat the models as far as the southern extent of the arctic boundary. Wherever this boundary sets up, thats where the fun and games should be and would expect the models to trend further south with time!! imo

Have you taken a look at the warming forecasts lately for the stratosphere? The next wave seems to be even stronger and has potential to beat down the PV even more!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

That is some intense warming in Siberia. Also, what is PV?????

[Portastorm]

PV = polar vortex

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, it makes you think this pattern might lock and hold for awhile. Those would be some crazy height rises building across Alaska into the Yukon Territory, if this forecast were to verify, possibly making the Arctic Express train quite long...sending one Arctic High after another into the lower latitudes.

= If that happens, then this would happen for wxman57's wintertime bike riding. =

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow:

PV = polar vortex

Oh duh

[Kennethb]

I agree some cold will eventually come to Texas, but probably beyond the next 2 weeks. Best bet would be late January into February. Latest GFS is indicating 850mb temps 20-25C below normal in western Canada by the 20th. One caveat though is that the GFS often indicates such extremes (that never materialize) in the long range.

Roger that.

While I would like to see some decent cold and potential wintry weather, remember just last year the GFS and even other models had that 1060 high (I think the 6-7 day range) moving what looked like classic massive cold sliding down the Plains and most what we got was a long stretch of regular cold.

Perhaps this year it will materialize.