Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

GFS 06z still looks interesting for us in North Texas this coming Tuesday. It'll be interesting to see if we get a bit of a surprise. It's kind of sneaked up on me a little bit, I was focused further out.

12z is coming out now. We'll see what it says.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

GFS 06z still looks interesting for us in North Texas this coming Tuesday. It'll be interesting to see if we get a bit of a surprise. It's kind of sneaked up on me a little bit, I was focused further out.

12z is coming out now. We'll see what it says.

The GFS has showed snow in parts of Texas, for Monday/Tuesday, over the past few runs!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had an interesting video blog about this Winter versus last Winter:

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[gpsnowman]

Has anyone seen the forecasted highs for parts of the Midwest and parts of Montana into Canada?! Widespread 50's and 60's with record highs from California to Minnesota. Ouch. The already small amount of snow cover will again retreat even further. Amazing. That being said, I am worried that the forecasted pattern flip might not be much of a flip at all. At least not for Texas. I know other factors are involved but those areas need to be cold and snowy first before we see any. Is that too amatuerish of a statement? This winter is weird.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z GFS is still very interesting, early next week!

[orangeblood]

There is some serious stratospheric warming forecast by the Euro at 360 hours...on the magnitude of warming 90 degrees F at the 10mb level from today!! That kind of warming would have major implications for the northern hemisphere with crazy arctic cold developing in the lower troposphere... figuring out where this cold will go and possibly lock in is still in question. But the later half of the month into February should get very interesting on a global scale!!!

[aggiecutter]

HM says the south overall will remain warm the rest of the winter, although there will be periods of cold behind storm systems. He thinks the battleground between warm and cold will be in the southern part of the central plains, with a ridge protecting the south from the bulk of the cold air. The good news from this is that a active storm track should develop bringing much needed rain to parts of Texas.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... -way/59894

[weatherdude1108]

Has anyone seen the forecasted highs for parts of the Midwest and parts of Montana into Canada?! Widespread 50's and 60's with record highs from California to Minnesota. Ouch. The already small amount of snow cover will again retreat even further. Amazing. That being said, I am worried that the forecasted pattern flip might not be much of a flip at all. At least not for Texas. I know other factors are involved but those areas need to be cold and snowy first before we see any. Is that too amatuerish of a statement? This winter is weird.

That does not sound amatuerish to me at all. I'm not a pro, but I had that same thought about the unusually small amount of snow cover to the north. We need that air/snow-covered surface interaction to help out those of us in the lower latitudes with any chance of precip. I would think But that's only a guess. This winter is very weird! We need a pro met to chime in.

[Big O]

Tweets from JB: "10mb warming on European over the pole by 360 hrs reaches 50C!!!! This is a huge event and will have N hemisphere cold implications."

"I am more meteorologist than weather nut now, because the warming at 10 mb blows me away the way a big snowstorm use too. Astounding."

[orangeblood]

HM says the south overall will remain warm the rest of the winter, although there will be periods of cold behind storm systems. He thinks the battleground between warm and cold will be in the southern part of the central plains, with a ridge protecting the south from the bulk of the cold air. The good news from this is that a active storm track should develop bringing much needed rain to parts of Texas.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... -way/59894

I find that hard to believe with the SSW event forecast and the AO tanking, which would bring lower than normal heights to the lower latitudes and suppress the pesky southeast ridge - typical during La Ninas. Speaking of La Nina, has anyone seen the latest SOI?? The La Nina looks almost obsolete at the moment, Crazy!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Has anyone seen the forecasted highs for parts of the Midwest and parts of Montana into Canada?! Widespread 50's and 60's with record highs from California to Minnesota. Ouch. The already small amount of snow cover will again retreat even further. Amazing. That being said, I am worried that the forecasted pattern flip might not be much of a flip at all. At least not for Texas. I know other factors are involved but those areas need to be cold and snowy first before we see any.

That's true right now. But the first significant cold front (the one that NWS offices opined on in morning discussions) isn't due to arrive here in North Texas until next week (mid-week) after the early week storm.

And as for potential severe cold, Bastardi has opined that such weather will be towards the end of the month. And I think Cosgrove is in the same camp if I remember correctly. If that turns out to be true, snowcover maps to our north could change drastically over a two or three week period.

Also keep in mind that true arctic air doesn't have to have snowcover north of here for the airmass to bring in the big chill (i.e. no snowcover in the Midwest, South, or Mid-Atlantic and yet Florida experienced sub-freezing temps this week).

[Ntxw]

Who ever came up with the phrase patience is a virtue surely meant it lol. Mother nature is so cruel in that she gives so many hints but takes her sweet time to deliver! With so much talk about down the road, I'm forgetting we're only 5 days into January. Wxman57 is probably loving this mild weather and tanning in his backyard .

Question: Where is a reliable source to find the latest SOI updates?

[Texas Snowman]

GPSSnowman, FYI, if you missed them, here a few of the Bastardi tweets in the past 24 hours.

"strong troughs day 7-10 has canadian archipelago air.. cold but not as cold as what follows week 3 ..cross polar air. pattern may lock."

"Even in mild patterns, fun and games.. southern rockies snow perhaps into Texas west of I-35 for Sunday/Monday."

"Next fla freeze threat next weekend.. remember mild then wild, then cold that is vile... weather evolution for U.S next 3 weeks."

So again, he's pointing at the severe cold (if it happens) being later in the month. I know he's not always right but he's not always wrong either and has a fair track record IMO. So I thought these tweets were worth mentioning.

[Texas Snowman]

"Speaking of La Nina, has anyone seen the latest SOI?? The La Nina looks almost obsolete at the moment, Crazy!!!!"

HM mentioned that this morning in a tweet:

"@Henry_Margusity: It's been a week now that the SOI values have been way down to indicate a neutral ENSO or barely a La Nina."

[cycloneye]

"Speaking of La Nina, has anyone seen the latest SOI?? The La Nina looks almost obsolete at the moment, Crazy!!!!"

HM mentioned that this morning in a tweet:

"@Henry_Margusity: It's been a week now that the SOI values have been way down to indicate a neutral ENSO or barely a La Nina."

Is way positive right now indicating moderate La Nina. You have to see the index drop to +8 to then have a weaker La Nina.

[Texas Snowman]

That drop at the end of December doesn't look like it's way down does it? Hmmm...

[gpsnowman]

GPSSnowman, FYI, if you missed them, here a few of the Bastardi tweets in the past 24 hours.

"strong troughs day 7-10 has canadian archipelago air.. cold but not as cold as what follows week 3 ..cross polar air. pattern may lock."

"Even in mild patterns, fun and games.. southern rockies snow perhaps into Texas west of I-35 for Sunday/Monday."

"Next fla freeze threat next weekend.. remember mild then wild, then cold that is vile... weather evolution for U.S next 3 weeks."

So again, he's pointing at the severe cold (if it happens) being later in the month. I know he's not always right but he's not always wrong either and has a fair track record IMO. So I thought these tweets were worth mentioning.

Yeah, I saw those. And it is encouraging. I am just hoping everything comes together in the future for us in Texas. So many ingredients for the perfect recipe. Like Ntwx mentioned, patience is a virtue. But it is on thin ice so to speak

[austinrunner]

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on 3 January:

La Niña remains established in the Pacific with little change from last week. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña have continued to intensify slightly, a result of below average Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) at Darwin. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value was +23.3 to the 1st of January, with contributing pressure anomalies of +2.2 hPa at Tahiti and -2.3 hPa at Darwin. The monthly SOI for December was +23.0, the highest monthly value since December 2010. The 5-month running mean (centred on October) was +11.6.

Below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sub-surface temperatures persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Data from the NINO3.4 region shows SSTs remain 0.8 °C below average. Cloudiness near the International Date Line continues to be below average. Areas of enhanced convection include the Bay of Bengal, where Tropical Cyclone Thane formed on the 28th and 29th of December; the Maritime Continent, where SSTs are 1 °C above normal in some places; and across the South Pacific, where the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) remains well developed over warmer-than-average oceans.

Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña event may be nearing its peak, and is likely to persist for the majority of the north Australian wet season. La Niña periods are typically associated with above average rainfall across northern Australia during the wet season. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than normal from December onwards, and tropical cyclone activity is usually above average between November and April.

After a brief stall over the Maritime Continent last week, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) increased in strength and pushed eastward into the Western Pacific. The MJO added to the already enhanced convection within the SPCZ. Furthermore, enhanced westerly flow in the wake of the MJO encouraged monsoon activity over northeast Australia.

The MJO is forecast to weaken as it moves eastward throughout the rest of this week. It is typical for an MJO pulse to weaken over the Eastern Pacific during La Niña events; this is most likely due to cooler SSTs and enhanced easterly winds at lower levels.

[orangeblood]

Who ever came up with the phrase patience is a virtue surely meant it lol. Mother nature is so cruel in that she gives so many hints but takes her sweet time to deliver! With so much talk about down the road, I'm forgetting we're only 5 days into January. Wxman57 is probably loving this mild weather and tanning in his backyard .

Question: Where is a reliable source to find the latest SOI updates?

Here is a link I follow showing daily SOI values...I realize it's a running 30 day average to determine status but it seems very telling that it's been over a week of values below 10

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[gpsnowman]

I think Wxman57s silence this morning is due to the fact that balmy bike weather is nearing an end!