Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON JAN 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER LOCALLY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT OVERALL PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING
THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 315K-
320K...AND LATEST SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES REMAINS WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THE WETTEST DAY AT THIS MOMENT
WILL BE FRIDAY...AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER...BUT IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO...A COLD FRONT LOCATED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN U.S...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
...BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THURSDAY. AT THIS MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERNED
DURING THIS WEEK WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO INVADE OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY. REFER TO MARINE
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA RIDING TRADE WINDS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLD. VFR TO PREVAIL BUT WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SOME SHRA. TRADE WINDS E 15-20 KT BLO FL100 TODAY
BUT TO WEAKEN AND SHALLOW ON TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 50 20 20 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Here are the ten most wet years on record in San Juan,St Thomas and St Croix. 2011 finished a close second behind 2010.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=toptenwettestyear

2011 ranks as the second wettest year in nearly 113 years of record keeping in the San Juan Metro Area. An impressive rainfall total of 88.15 inches was reported at the San Juan International Airport, which is 31.80 inches above normal. This total was 1.35 less than 2010, the wettest year on record.

Code: Select all

San Juan
 Saint Thomas
 Saint Croix
 
1st
 89.50" 2010
 67.59" 1960
 78.25" 1979
 
2nd
 88.15" 2011
 61.38" 2010
 56.13" 2003
 
3rd
 87.55" 1931
 55.29" 2005
 54.87" 1960
 
4th
 84.97" 1950
 51.93" 2003
 53.33" 1952
 
5th
 84.93" 1927
 50.34" 1974
 53.23" 1996
 
6th
 78.96" 1902
 49.34" 1981
 51.72" 1974
 
7th
 77.61" 1899
 76.92" 1954
 50.10" 1987
 
8th
 77.28" 2005
 46.30" 1958
 49.88" 2010
 
9th
 76.60" 1952
 46.14" 2011
 47.72" 2011
 
10th
 75.70" 1901
 46.13" 1979
 45.76" 1953
 


Code: Select all

Sector
 Rain
 Normal
 PON
 
  YTD
 YTD
 YTD
 
X North Coast
 74.47
 61.74
 121%
 
X South Coast
 76.31
 33.63
 227%
 
X North Slopes
 80.67
 62.75
 129%
 
X South Slopes
 72.11
 61.43
 117%
 
X East Interior
 107.05
 79.50
 135%
 
X West Interior
 101.19
 80.80
 125%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Average
 85.30
 63.31
 135%
 
X U.S. Virgin Islands
 48.11
 39.78
 121%
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
214 PM AST MON JAN 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECTED PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MEASURED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME EACH DAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AT THIS
TIME IT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03/00Z...ESPECIALLY OVER TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK
AND TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM THE EAST AT 10-20
KTS BTWN SFC AND 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SWELLS FROM THE
NORTH INCREASE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 81 / 20 20 30 30
STT 73 85 73 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST TUE JAN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
MOVES SOUTH EST. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WIND HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES TOWARD THE EAST. THIS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...IS BRINGING WITH IT...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THROUGH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE SHORT LIVED...AND NO
IMPORTANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED. WEATHER
REMAIN UNCHANGED...WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A BIGGER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION. DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE REMNANT OF
IT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING IN THE LONG
TERM...INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA...AND BRINGING WITH IT A VERY
COLD AIR MASS...WITH THETA-E VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 312K..WHICH IS
LOW FOR THE TROPICS. HOWEVER...IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THIS WILL
VERIFY. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA ATTM OVR ATLANTIC AND ISOLD CARIBBEAN WITH
LITTLE CHG XPCTD THRU WED. MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR SHRA ON LAND
WILL BE THE EXPOSED SHORES...EASTERN PR TO LESSER ANTILLES. THESE
COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR IN CIG/VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS
TO BE VRBL 5-15 KT BLO FL100 THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUOYS ARE SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WHILE THE OUTER BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
OVER 8 FEET WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...LATE
THIS WEEK...A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE TO
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF THE ISLANDS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...AND
REFER TO LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 70 81 72 / 40 30 30 30
STT 84 72 84 74 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST TUE JAN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND AFFECTED PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT OVERALL FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH
THE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE
PREVAILING WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. MAJOR CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE
THE APPROACHING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET IN NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 72 82 / 30 60 30 30
STT 72 84 74 83 / 30 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

Hi! We have been under the effects of a strong cold front since Sunday night but today has been the coolest day and I cane tell this will be a very cool night as the winds are very strong (gusts of 60 km/h or 28 mph have been registered) and the temperature is cooling down at a fast pace. These are the temperatures registered yesterday (January 2 2012) in Central America:

-Warmer than normal lows were registered in the whole region. (Today's lows are a different story though)
-Cooler than normal highs were registered in Guatemala and Belize. Near normal highs in the rest of the countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20°C (68°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21°C (70°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.5°C (36.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 15.7°C (60.3°F) Coldest since October 12 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C (86°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36°C (97°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.4°C (54.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED JAN 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PROBABLY
SUNDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ITS PROXIMITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE BASE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND A COUPLE OF PASSING DISTURBANCES...SHOULD
RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INVADE
THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...AT WHICH
TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EXPAND TO MOST OF THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF MOST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 71 / 60 30 30 30
STT 84 72 84 74 / 40 40 40 30

[Gustywind]

WEATHER
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 152569.php

200 days of rain in 2011

V. d. France-Antilles Guadeloupe04.01.2012

FLOODS. Wet episodes caused localized flooding, as here to Belle plain/Le Gosier on 28 November. (Sylvère Selbonne)

Without being a record year, 2011 has been particularly watered with 200 days of rain.


To say the least, is that the year 2011 has been particularly watered with 200 days of rain. And 122 days or even orange yellow vigilance, for heavy rain and thunderstorms mainly. "It's huge!" recognizes the leader of the centre of weather France to the Raizet, Norbert Aouizerats.

Given that he fell in January - 268 mm (1) of the Raizet, normal being 91 mm - water, the year 2011 was party to be a record year in terms of rainfall. Some months, identified rollups were well above normal. In July, for example, he fell 332 mm to the Raizet (the double of the normal, 154 mm). And in August, 307 mm, the normal being 190 mm.

At the same time, some months have not been surplus as September. And other rather dry, as December (-50% of normal). All together, he fell 2 255 mm to the Raizet in 2011. Much more than a normal year (1 623 mm). The fourth value since 1951. But it is the year 1970, which holds the record with 2 500 mm.

21 DAYS OF RAIN IN OCTOBER

Nothing exceptional so, but when, some months the Sun is made particularly rare: 20 days of rain in July, 19 days in August and 21 days in October. What depressing...

That we reserve the 2012 year? Forecasters are not crystal balls, however they can sketch a trend in view of the data in their possession. According Norbert Aouizerats, "the phenomenon of la Niña is always there, the activity should remain important year in terms of rainfall". But in the normal for the three months to come.

In the shorter term, a more dry, sunny weather should concern us Wednesday and Thursday, with a rise in temperatures. Before the return of a covered time and wet Friday and Saturday.(1) 1 mm = 1 litre per m2.


IN FIGURES
77. The maximum wind gust recorded this year at the weather station of the Raizet reached 77 km in the passage of the storm Ophélia, September 9.

26,4. The Raizet station, recorded temperatures in 2011 are consistent with normal. They ranged between 30 ° C and 22.8 ° C, or a daily average temperature of 26.4 ° C.

-An active cyclonic year

Less active than 2010, the cyclonic 2011 season still saw the formation of 19 events on the Atlantic basin. "Normal is 11 to 14 phenomena", said the head of the centre of France weather forecasts, Norbert Aouizerats. The majority has not exceeded tropical storm stage, except 6, which are processed into hurricane. The Lesser Antilles were however interested by these phenomena - Emily, Irène, Maria and Ophélia 4. "Who have all originated in the Atlantic, East of the Caribbean arc and all developed after their passage on our islands.". If they have not caused major damage, the passage of Emily caused flooding in Martinique, Maria has generated a significant electrical activity and Ophélia spiral bands well watered Guadeloupe.

[cycloneye]

Gusty,that was a very interesting report from the butterfly island.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED JAN 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECTED PARTS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THEREFORE...CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ON
SATURDAY BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. BUT...UNDER THE
PREVAILING WIND FLOW STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF MOISTURE IN AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE USVI IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ERN PR AFT 05/00Z WITH SCT LGT SHRA. THE BAND
IS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND NEARLY CLR SKIES. A SECOND BAND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT 05/00Z AND THROUGH THE USVI
BTWN 05/08-18Z. THE BANDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MTN OBSCURATIONS
AND SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR CIGS/VSBYS. LGT AND VRBL WINDS AT LLVLS WILL
BECOME NE-E AFT 05/06Z. CONDS ARE VERY DRY ABV 10 KFT TIL 05/12Z
THEN GENLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT RH AFT. WLY WINDS GREATER THAN 50
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BTWN 29-47 KFT AND WILL DECREASE DURG NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LONG PERIODS OF 12
TO 15 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SWELL
WILL PEAK AFTER 6 AM BUT WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM AST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 81 / 40 40 30 40
STT 72 84 74 84 / 40 40 30 30

[msbee]

we are forecast for dangerous seas from meteo.Fr.

http://www.sxminfo.com/vigilance-meteor ... angereuse/

This is the best translation Google could come up with:

The sea is being agitated with waves of 2m neighbors. The swell is facing east with periods of 9 to 10 seconds. At the end of the day, the buoy in the north of Puerto Rico recorded lows of 2m and a period of 10 seconds.

The next night, a swell of Northwest North gradually came to our shores by generating a high heavy seas. The low average reach 3m tomorrow morning with periods of 12 to 14 seconds.
In addition the sea lifted by the wind is moderate to support this crossing the sea swell and makes particularly unwieldy and dangerous. The choppy sea and strong making conditions difficult and dangerous navigation.

High rollers breaking on exposed coasts. Caution is therefore required along shorelines exposed especially in the bay of Gustavia with an unusual agitation.

The arrival of a wave of North-Northwest and a sea lifted by an east wind argued, makes the dangerous sea.

Validity - duration of the phenomenon: Until Friday, January 6th at noon.

Extract from Bulletin of vigilance Meteo France

[Macrocane]

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AMERICA (FREEZE IN COSTA RICA VOLCANOES)

The strong cold front has produced very cold temperatures from Belize to Costa Rica and strong winds from Belize to Panama, some of the temperatures have been the coldest in over a year (since December 2010). These are the temperatures registered on January 3 2012:
-Cooler than normal or near normal lows were registered in the whole region.
-Cooler than normal highs were experienced in all the countries except for Panama that had near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 14.8°C (58.6°F) Coldest since December 2 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.0°C (51.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.2°C (46.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica -0.2°C (31.6°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 2010
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coldest since February 13 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 13.5°C (56.3°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 2010
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F) Coldest since November 28 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.6°C (92.5°F) Coolest since December 2 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.3°C (43.3°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 2010
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.0°C (66.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST THU JAN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
FOR LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY
ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ITS PROXIMITY TO THE FA AND
MOISTURE RETURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...IN COMBINATION
WITH THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND AT LEAST
ONE MORE PASSING DISTURBANCE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
MUCH OF FRIDAY AS WELL. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
IS STILL INDICATED FOR SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SO FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES TODAY
AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 4 PM AST FRIDAY.

VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND
FREQUENT STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 72 / 40 30 40 40
STT 84 72 83 74 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU JAN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A JET FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXTEND TO THE NORTH AND RETURN TO THE
EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WILL BE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS FELL OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
MAYAGUEZ AND MOVED IN FROM THE EAST OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS
FAR AS BAYAMON BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING AS THEY CROSS
THROUGH. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATES SOMEWHAT BUT ON AND OFF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NOW THAT THE NOSE OF THE INVERSION AT 10 THOUSAND FEET IN
THE SOUNDING HAS WEAKENED...BUT AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB IS STILL
VERY DRY AND CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ONLY UNDER SPECIAL LOCAL
CIRCUMSTANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND PR AND USVI TAF SITES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST CONTINUE WITH SEAS AROUND
12 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 AND AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET AT THE
INNER BUOY 41053. SWELL WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES UNTIL SATURDAY. ONLY OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BE LEFT WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET BY MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 71 80 / 40 60 50 40
STT 72 82 74 84 / 50 50 30 30

[Macrocane]

It's still cold in Central America, these are the temperatures registered yesterday:
-Cooler than normal lows in Guatemala, Belice and Nicaragua. Near normal lows were registred in the rest of the region.
-Cooelr than normal highs were registered in all the countries except for Panama that had near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 16°C (61°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 13.1°C (55.6°F) Coldest since December 1 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 28 2010
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.7°C (33.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.2°C (46.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F) Coldest since December 1 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 14°C (63°F) COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 8 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.5°C (56.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.8°C (65.8°F) Coldest since October 12 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) Coolest since November 30 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.3°C (81.1°F) Coolest since December 2 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.2°C (57.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.1°C (89.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.2°C (46.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.1°C (66.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST THU JAN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC IS TO PULL AWAY FRI WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE NW ATLC COASTAL WATERS IN
THE VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS. EXPECT
TOMORROW TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND XCPT NW PR AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN PRETTY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO EVEN
SUPPORT THUNDER AS SEEN ON 00Z JSJ RAOB WITH EQ LEVEL TEMPS COLDER
THAN -10C. THOSE PLANNING IN ATTENDING THE THREE KING FESTIVITIES
AT EITHER THE FORTALEZA IN SAN JUAN OR YAUCO SHOULD PLAN FOR
SHOWERS TO DAMPEN THE FESTIVITIES.

THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SAT AS FRONTAL BDRY AND PREFRONTAL AXIS
LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES AS POLAR TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SUN AS RIDGE STREGTHENS.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA WITH LOW CIGS
AS WELL AS SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI WHILE THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MAY OBSERVE WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...NW SWELLS HAVE PEAKED BUT SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS WITH 9 TO 14 FEET SEAS COMMON ACROSS THE ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
TOMORROW BUT NOT LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ADVZY CRITERIA UNTIL SUN
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 74 81 / 40 70 50 40
STT 77 79 77 79 / 20 50 40 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ITS CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FA AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL
RETURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SLOWLY LIFTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT. LOOKING AT WSR-88D TRENDS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS STILL INDICATED FOR
SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MOST
LIKELY TUESDAY TOO. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE
PEAKED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL
PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

IN ADDITION...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL DATA...WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 4 AM AST SATURDAY.

VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND
FREQUENT STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 73 / 70 50 40 30
STT 79 77 79 77 / 50 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS....PASSAGE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FROM
THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AFTERWARD TROUGHINESS
CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC KEEPING MODERATE FLOW
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES AT MID LEVELS UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES IN THE MONA
PASSAGE AREA AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
TOWARD THE NORTH SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE WHILE MODERATE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 20 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AROUND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AS
THEY DID TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MORE OF A RETREAT
AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER.
NEVERTHELESS... CONTINUING EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WITH
PATCHES OF EMBEDDED MOISTURE WILL BRING DAILY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COAST IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTERIOR
SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AFTER SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
MOVE THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER. NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT 10 DAYS...ALTHOUGH HIGHS LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES LATER NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN AND AROUND PR TAF SITES IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL IS SLOWLY AND SPORADICALLY SUBSIDING...BUT REMAINS
7 TO 10 FEET WITH SOME WIND WAVES OVERLAID. THIS WILL HOLD THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM AST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS IN THE PASSAGES AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
TOMORROW. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET BY MONDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN MANY OPEN AREAS DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 82 / 50 40 20 30
STT 72 83 74 84 / 40 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The cold temperatures persist in Central America, these ones were registered yeasterday (January 5 2011):
-Near normal lows in Belize, Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal lows in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
-Cooler than normal highs in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Near normal highs in Nicaragua and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 9.6°C (49.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.0°C (30.2°F) Coldest since December 4 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.7°C (60.3°F) Coldest since December 3 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.1°C (41.2°F) Coldest since December 1 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F) Coldest since December 1 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 14°C (57°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.1°C (41.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.7°C (62.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.5°C (67.1°F) COLDEST IN AT LEAST ONE YEAR
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.7°C (45.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TOMORROW. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION TOMORROW AND
HOLD THROUGH SUN. WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON-WED
WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING AGAIN FOR THU AND THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRONTAL ZONE
HAS PUSHED SWD AND NOW EXTENDS ACROSS PR INTO THE CARIB SEA.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF PR OVERNIGHT
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SAT MORNING AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A SIG WX IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES AND SUBSIDENCE CAP STRENGTHENS.
BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED FOR SUN WITH VERY LITTLE SHRA CVRG
EXPECTED.

RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SVRL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS AND BETTER SHRA CVRG MON-TUE BUT STRONG RIDGE IS FCST
TO BUILD AGAIN FOR NEXT THU SUPPRESING SHRA CVRG.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
AND AROUND PR TAF SITES IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO LOW CIGS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FINALLY SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH SEAS BETWEEN
7-9 FT IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 82 / 40 20 10 10
STT 78 80 78 80 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST SAT JAN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD SAT AND SUN THEN FLATTEN MON-TUE AS
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG RIDGING WILL
BUILD AGAIN LATE WED AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS PR CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
DEFINITION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY. SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NOTICEABLE LESS COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS FRONT WOULD HAVE DISSIPATED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ERODE AS RIDGING BUILDS LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BEAUTIFUL DAY THEN EXPECTED ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

MID-UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS/WEAKENS A BIT MON-TUE AS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC YIELDING BETTER CHANCES OF SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION BUT REALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM. MODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING
A RAPID EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP. ANTICIPATING VERY LITTLE WEATHER WED-SAT WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OVR NORTHEAST PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING UNDER A MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 6 FT
NOW BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41053. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP HIGH SURF
WITH EARLY MORNING PACKAGE AS MAX WAVE HEIGHTS NOW ONLY OF 9 FT.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 73 / 20 10 10 20
STT 80 78 80 78 / 20 10 10 10