Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[ndale]

Lubbock/Amarillo, Midland/Odessa and San Angelo weather offices are all mentioning possibility of snow with the storm system but saying location will all depend on the track of the storm system and advising everyone in their areas to keep up with updates. Could be interesting for those parts of the state.

[iorange55]

GFS 18Z showing possible light snow for thursday and friday over north central texas. Then, another strong front later in the run.

[Ntxw]

GFS 18Z showing possible light snow for thursday and friday over north central texas. Then, another strong front later in the run.

Both Canadian and GFS have trended quite well for the second storm. Soundings look good for a potential snow event mid-late week if that verifies. Just need the Euro to come along. Euro and GFS have been swapping solutions, so who knows!



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Someone out in West Texas between Lubbock-Midland-Abilene could see half a foot of snow or more Monday!

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS chiming in on the latter half of the week...

"A STRONGER COLD FRONT TAPPING AIR FROM ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA
ARRIVES THURSDAY/FRIDAY A STEEP UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND ECMWF AS SWAPPED SOLUTIONS
REGARDING A POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RIGHT
AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY...BRISK
AND COLD FORECAST AND UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPERATURES BY A GOOD 5
DEGREES OR MORE PER PATTERN RECOGNITION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT
THAT THIS IS TRUE ARCTIC AIR ORIGIN."

[gpsnowman]

It is a bit slow in here. Well, there is either nothing good to report or Storm2Kers are playoff crazy right now. Hopefully the late runs will give us winter fodder to chew on!

[iorange55]

It is a bit slow in here. Well, there is either nothing good to report or Storm2Kers are playoff crazy right now. Hopefully the late runs will give us winter fodder to chew on!

You left out a third option, "There is nothing to report." There is always a little lull in the action between the 18z run and the 00z runs.

The 00z NAM has updated, though. Still showing cold air building at the end of it's run. Looks good for later next week.

[Ntxw]

Man west Texas has been cashing in this season while the rest of the country is in a snow drought! I did a little research for Midland and their highest snowfall from a single storm is 9.8 inches, second is 6. Nam is forecasting up to 8 inches there and 0z GFS looks wetter.

Their highest seasonal snowfall is 13.9 inches, so far this year on Christmas Midland received 5.8! Should be close to it this week!
Edit: They are at 8.9 inches for the season thus far



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Edit 2: 0z GFS is still a go with possible post frontal snow for West, Hill country, North Texas following the cold front late week. Temperature gradient could be somewhat strong which means anything that falls could be wind driven behind the front. Also there is a lot of separate vorticities hanging around so if something phases watch out.

Disclaimer: This is from the GooFuS so I am not held responsible for any kind of let downs!

[Turtle]

The 0Z GFS does look nice. I'm hoping the models will keep going colder.

[Ntxw]

Canadian goes all out and does a Texas winter storm from North Texas to Austin to NW sides of Houston. It has the classic phase look with incoming vorticity from the northwest to energize the system over Texas. (Friday)



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Edit: Not to leave out our SE TX friends, there's more energy even after on the cmc as it keeps the cold around well enough that back end of it's trough says possible fun for HGX too verbatim.

Disclaimer: This is from the Crazy land of Bacon so I am not held responsible for any kind of let downs!

[iorange55]

The trend continues :] now we just need the Euro, and I will be off to buy some new mittens.

[Ntxw]

So that Portastorm can frame this, here's the PSU ewall depiction of the blizzard on the canadian.



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Edit: Crazy Canadians does another snowstorm behind that not long after. Tease!



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[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wow that would make my year

[Ntxw]

Euro says NO! Not as cold as cmc and dry with the storm hanging out west longer. Dry and chilly with separate systems instead of phasing them together, it still has a possible freeze into the Rio Grand Valley, however.

Long range from Euro now has the 1050+ highs, cold air is building in central Canada.

[Rgv20]

Well the GFS has been trending colder with the cold air late next week.....Lets see if the trend continues tomorrow!

[Rgv20]

0zUKMET has the system in West Texas by Friday Evening just in time for the cold air to be in place....question is how much cold air? Looks like the Euro is an outlier in wanting to keep the 500mb upper low in the southwest.

[orangeblood]

Not looking good for late week storm...GFS and NAM trending towards King Euro

[Portastorm]

Not looking good for late week storm...GFS and NAM trending towards King Euro

Well the 0z and 6z GFS are quite different from each other in terms of how that treat the low pressure out west. Seems like still a lot of divergence as the models struggle with the pattern.

The other thing I've noticed is that the op runs and the ensembles show that after an initial cold blast (6-10 days) for us in the Southern Plains/Texas, the cold then shifts east and the brunt of it seems more focused toward the Great Lakes and Northeast. A more transient pattern. We shall see.

And yes, I saw the 0z Canadian. Whoo boy.

[ndale]

A quote from the San Angelo wfo shows for the storm tonight and tomorrow how the models have no agreement and the weather office thinks everything depends on the track of the storm and temprature variations.l

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. UNFORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE
RESULTED IN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR TRACK. A SHIFT
TO THE NORTH WOULD RESULT IN LESS SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WHEREAS A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EVENT...1 OR 2
DEGREES CAN MAKE OR BREAK THE FORECAST.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, those guys in San Angelo are going to be right on the cusp of things. Talk about a tough forecast! Sheesh.

[iorange55]

Trends this morning are not looking good for the late week storm! :[ no!!!!

Hopefully they trend back to the snowy solution.