Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

FWIW, through 120 hours on the 12z GFS operational run, it looks a little warmer and a tad wetter for late week. By Friday morning, the 0z GFS had the freezing line carving out a nice "U" shape through much of West Texas. The 12z GFS run at the same time has more of an east-west boundary of the freezing line much further north across the State. It does show some light moisture though spreading west to east across the middle part of the state.

But the more immediate and good news is that it looks like many of us will be getting some welcomed rainfall between now and Tuesday morning. Anywhere from 1/2 inch to several inches down in southeast Texas!

[Portastorm]

If you want to spend a few minutes, here is a pretty good read on things ahead from David Tolleris of Wxrisk.com.

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/BACKUP/backup.htm

[Ntxw]

Trends aren't good this morning for cold and snow lovers. NAM/GFS and now the Canadian caved to Euro's west coast cut off. Also not nearly as cold. Wouldn't it be funny, just because, if the 12z Euro decided to flip? Lol I doubt it but that would pull some hairs out for sure!

I did a some in depth look at GFS run to 192 hrs this morning. Quite frankly I tried to find/compare it a similar run or situation in the past and am having a difficult time. It just seems...weird. Dense and weird.

[Portastorm]

Trends aren't good this morning for cold and snow lovers. NAM/GFS and now the Canadian caved to Euro's west coast cut off. Also not nearly as cold. Wouldn't it be funny, just because, if the 12z Euro decided to flip? Lol I doubt it but that would pull some hairs out for sure!

Not saying this trend is incorrect or anything, but I think all of this variability from run to run for all the models shows the pattern could indeed be changing and they're struggling with it. HPC this morning in their 3-7 day outlook even spoke to the widely different model runs, including individual ensemble members.

At this point, I don't trust much beyond 72 hours whether it says snow or no.

[hriverajr]

The 12z GFS would just indicate a transient cold shot and after that nothing special in regards to temperature.
Its just one run. so hope springs eternal.

[srainhoutx]

Trends aren't good this morning for cold and snow lovers. NAM/GFS and now the Canadian caved to Euro's west coast cut off. Also not nearly as cold. Wouldn't it be funny, just because, if the 12z Euro decided to flip? Lol I doubt it but that would pull some hairs out for sure!

Not saying this trend is incorrect or anything, but I think all of this variability from run to run for all the models shows the pattern could indeed be changing and they're struggling with it. HPC this morning in their 3-7 day outlook even spoke to the widely different model runs, including individual ensemble members.

At this point, I don't trust much beyond 72 hours whether it says snow or no.

I couldn't agree more, Portstorm. When we have such a change in blocking and heights rising it gives the guidance fits. Just look at today. I don't think anyone would have suggested a week ago that Midland/Odessa could be looking at 4-6 inches of snow with possibly more and even thundersnow chances... While it is interesting to follow the guidance daily, it will drive some folks nuts if they cling to any one solution beyond 3 days in this type of pattern, IMO.

[aggiecutter]

If you want to spend a few minutes, here is a pretty good read on things ahead from David Tolleris of Wxrisk.com.

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/BACKUP/backup.htm

He pretty much regurgitated what HM said in the video I posted here a couple days ago. The 0z EURO at day 10 strongly supports their forecast. It remains to be seen if the cold air damn breaks in late January or February. If not, the south will only get transient shots of cold air for the rest of the winter.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Rgv20]

This is JB tweet this morning.

10 mb warming working its magic. check out @RyanMaue tweet on ao heading into the tank.. the flip is not going to flop!


Here is the forecast AO by the operational 12zGFS.



Edit:

Look at the impressive 10MB Stratosphere Warming forecast to take place 10 days out...When you see warm 10MB temperatures like that it usually means surface cold air should be building and ready to move shortly after.

[Ntxw]

Alright so the models today can't agree where to track the western cutoff low. Some put it out to sea in the Pacific, some hug it along the coast, others are a bit more inland. Cold air is a good bet to come down (decent for January) and now we just need the two to time themselves right! Gotta get that cold in first and the other will work itself out if it does! Optimism! This will probably be the coldest air we have seen thus far this season.

[iorange55]

you all make good points. Still a ways out (considering the trouble the models seem to be having right now)

Cold air will come, we just need a little luck with the timing.

And while we wait, folks in West Texas are going to get a lot more snow. Lucky ducks.

[Ntxw]

And while we wait, folks in West Texas are going to get a lot more snow. Lucky ducks.

I've been tracking possible amounts for them. 24 hours left and the GFS gives Midland a dusting while NAM says a foot+ lol. Ahh the joy of models.

[Portastorm]

The 18z NAM shows a swatch of almost a foot of snow paralleling but just north of I-20 from the Midland/Odessa area up to Big Spring. MAF themselves look to get 4-5 inches if the 18z NAM is on to something.

Amazing how they've received much more snow than places in the upper Midwest or Northeast!

[Rgv20]

Looks like a fun way to start the work week!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING SNOWS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING A SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT AND INTO WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAR WEST TONIGHT THEN SPREAD EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. INITIALLY RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE MIXED BUT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL QUICKLY OCCUR. THE
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR 4 AM MST IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND 6 AM CST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF THE LOW...THE ASSOCIATED LIFT...UNSEASONAL HIGH AMOUNTS OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER SUGGEST THAT
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL BANDS. WIDESPREAD
SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCAL HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FT INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 20 SPLIT
AND THEN EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BIG BEND
REGION ABOVE 5000 FT.

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-091145-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0001.120109T0600Z-120110T0600Z/
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-LOVING-
WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...
JAL...SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...
ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...
RANKIN...BIG LAKE...FORT STOCKTON
306 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012 /206 PM MST SUN JAN 8 2012/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ MONDAY NIGHT...

* EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SNOW PACKED. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN HEAVY SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF DROUGHT WEAKENED
TREES...SNOW LOADING ON TREE LIMBS...AND NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
20 MPH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND
THEREFORE POWER OUTAGES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville take on the late week system.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...DRY...COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONG CAA AT 850 WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S DESPITE
FULL SUN. LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING A COLD
NIGHT TUE NIGHT WITH SOME INTERIOR ZONES POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. AWESOME DAY WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S...SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE SEEMING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. SINCE THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE LIMITED...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ARE BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND PERSISTENT MOIST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO REINSERT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CHILLY WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S BRUSH COUNTRY AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF THIS PATTERN
COMES TO FRUITION...LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL BE
CHILLY...GRAY...AND DAMP. EVEN IF WE GET SEVERAL DAYS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

[Portastorm]

Sounds like a textbook overrunning pattern, eh?!

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:

Sounds like a textbook overrunning pattern, eh?!

Yeap its a classic couple of winter days for the Rio Grande Valley. In fact a local news station is going with a high of 50 with drizzle for Saturday...perfect day to stay inside and watch a couple of movies. (or maybe we could be tracking another shot of cold air! )

[Texas Snowman]

Almost - almost - as good as a snow. With Lake Texoma, Lake Fork, and just about every other lake in Texas well below normal, I'll take it!

"@wfaaweathertoo: Our upper-level low is undergoing rapid intensification over far west Texas. Soaking rain on the way!"

[Ntxw]

Man 0z NAM sure looks nice at the end of it's run! That is exactly how you want a winter scenario to set up! But money question still is can the storm come out fast enough to meet up with the cold air! At least is not way out west like 12z, which I'm not sure how that came to be with the ridge west of California.

[iorange55]

Man 0z NAM sure looks nice at the end of it's run! That is exactly how you want a winter scenario to set up! But money question still is can the storm come out fast enough to meet up with the cold air! At least is not way out west like 12z, which I'm not sure how that came to be with the ridge west of California.

I was just coming on here to say that the 0z NAM looked good at the end of the run. However, I wasn't sure if I was reading it correctly. It's nice to know I have learned some things after a few years on this board.

[natlib]

San Angelo was just put into a Winter Storm Watch for 2-5 inches of snow tomorrow. Ofcourse it will not happen. It never snows here....but its fun to dream right?????