Fabian definately will turn

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:15 pm

Florida has nothing at all to worry about. SNE and Canada are still where this system will come inland, if it were to come inland at all. That trough is going to rocket this thing to the north, possibly at 30-50KT on saturday

hurricanedude · #2 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:18 pm

VERY bold comment, no one can so nothing at all to worry about when it comes to nature...think about it, god can do what he wants.....remember that!! with this said until this thing is heading ENE at 50mph keep your eyes open!!

#3 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:20 pm

I am just curious as to how you can say that. I am not questioning your abilities, but how can you be 100% certain of the turn. I agree that it probably will turn, but don't you think it does a disservice to the less informed to make a statement like that, especially so many days in advance leaving no chance for any change.

Colin · #4 Postby **Colin** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:55 pm

Nobody knows for sure yet, so don't be so sure Derek...this thing has yet to make the turn.

Lindaloo · #5 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 5:01 pm

Look at what Elena did. Look at what Claudette did. It is not over until it is over.

ChaserUK · #6 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 5:13 pm

I always notice when the weather is active and exciting that messages always get more 'heated' - I notice this on boards in the UK too when we have a violent thunderstorm to talk about (quite a few this year). I guess we all just passionate about what we talk about!

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:32 pm

I do not feel that I am doing anyone a disservice. I am trying to spread the word to the areas that need to be monitored, SNE, bermuda, and Canada. Cannot do that by not placing an area that is in the clear, in the clear

#8 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:41 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I do not feel that I am doing anyone a disservice. I am trying to spread the word to the areas that need to be monitored, SNE, bermuda, and Canada. Cannot do that by not placing an area that is in the clear, in the clear

I don't think you are either Derek. Anything can happen, but the history of storms following Fabian's track over the past 100 years does not support a hit to the SE or MidAtlantic. However, there's a first time for everything!

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:45 pm

Derek, I have the same concerns about the NE and Canadian Maritimes as well in regards to Fabian.

SF

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:00 pm

I agree with Derek on this one....Florida is safe from Fabian. The areas that should keep a very close eye on this monster are IMHO the Outer Banks of North Carolina to New England; particularly from Long Island, NY to Cape Cod....and even there, I estimate the odds of a direct hit at 10% or less.

#11 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:02 pm

Everyone... I hope I didn't come across as being rude because that was not my intent. However, I think that we have to wait and not be too confident in our long term forecasts. Things can change and I just hope that people don't log on here and say "I live in SC, I have nothing to worry about. It is going north of me." I am just saying it isn't over, until it is over.

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:04 pm

Perry and Derek. What are your thoughts on the forecast of the ridge rebuilding...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida has been predicting the high to build toward the Bahams and Florida Straits, that can only "shutoff a northward movement" to Hurricane Fabian.

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:13 pm

I was not trying to say that this could actually hit the EC. I was just saying that anything is possible when it comes to Mother Nature.

JetMaxx · #14 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:21 pm

I don't think it will occur in time Tom. The ECMWF is a very accurate model regarding mature hurricanes, and it keeps Fabian 200+ miles east of Hatteras and Cape Cod.

I'm not saying it can't happen....God is in control of every storm...not me, Derek Ortt, or Stacy Stewart -- but the models are in pretty good agreement this hurricane will pass safely offshore....and on the off-chance things change, we'll have plenty of time to adjust and warn the public.

I don't see this as another Long Island Express....I just don't see the setup (a very deep trough that sent Atlanta from 90° steam heat to Autumn chill within 48 hours...that won't occur this week in Dixie).

hurricanedude · #15 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:27 pm

thats all we know for sure....is what if, maybe, perhaps...posssibly.....could be...ETC :grrr:

SacrydDreamz · #16 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:19 pm

Models keep trending northwest.. when will it end though?? We ALL should moniter this.. even Florida. Things happen!

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:18 pm

I've been saying thinking this and posting about possibilities for everyone along the entire eastern seaboard should watch this system.

There has been good reason for the confidence level not to be high with the direction of movement with Hurricane Fabian. A lot of variables as the system moves along.

SacrydDreamz · #18 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:33 am

I think the NW trend with models has ended, that's good though

Guest · #19 Postby **Guest** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:40 am

The turn has started. Let's all breathe a sigh of relief that it is and having watched this amazing category 4 have developed in the Atlantic for the 2003 season. I think the New England states need to keep a watchful eye but the lower Eastern states are looking in better shape of a landfalling Fabian.

Willow · #20 Postby **Willow** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 9:22 am

I live on the east coast...well actually 100 miles inland from Wilmington, NC. I have reviewed the tracking maps of the last 2 devestating hurricanes to hit NC....Fran in 1996 and Floyd in 1999. (Gee, we have this thing with hurricanes that begin with the letter F.) Anyway, Fran and Floyd both originated near 18.5N, 57.9W, closely to where Fabian is now. I know everyone keeps saying the Fabian will turn because of the trough on the east coast; however, they said the same thing initally about Fran. Im my opinion, it's still too early to tell. I believe it's supposed to make the northward turn on Wednesday. I feel we'll have to wait until then to see. Until it turns, I'll keep making hurricane preparations.

Fabian definately will turn

Fabian definately will turn

On the East Coast

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