#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:52 am
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S 153.1W
AT 090600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATION.SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE EXPOSED LLCC
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. TD04F LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING 250 HPA TROUGH IN A STRONG SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP TD04F AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH NO
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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