Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Gusty,that was a very interesting report from the butterfly island.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED JAN 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
JUST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECTED PARTS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THEREFORE...CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ON
SATURDAY BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. BUT...UNDER THE
PREVAILING WIND FLOW STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF MOISTURE IN AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE USVI IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ERN PR AFT 05/00Z WITH SCT LGT SHRA. THE BAND
IS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND NEARLY CLR SKIES. A SECOND BAND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT 05/00Z AND THROUGH THE USVI
BTWN 05/08-18Z. THE BANDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MTN OBSCURATIONS
AND SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR CIGS/VSBYS. LGT AND VRBL WINDS AT LLVLS WILL
BECOME NE-E AFT 05/06Z. CONDS ARE VERY DRY ABV 10 KFT TIL 05/12Z
THEN GENLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT RH AFT. WLY WINDS GREATER THAN 50
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BTWN 29-47 KFT AND WILL DECREASE DURG NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LONG PERIODS OF 12
TO 15 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SWELL
WILL PEAK AFTER 6 AM BUT WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM AST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 81 / 40 40 30 40
STT 72 84 74 84 / 40 40 30 30

Hi Cycloneye glad to see that! If i can be pretty informative... i always try to do my best for you my friends concerning all the latest news from the butterfly island included social activity .

Regards

Gustywind the windy gust of Guadeloupe

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JAN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF
MODEST TROUGHS WILL DIG INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60 AND
40 WEST LONGITUDE BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN MID LAYERS WILL BECOME VERY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PAST PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM
HISPANIOLA AND IS DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AROUND 30 NORTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED FROM MARICAO TO HORMIGUEROS AND FROM
LAS MARIAS TO AGUADA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALSO FORMED
FROM GURABO TO VEGA ALTA AND JUST NORTH OF LUQUILLO TO JUST NORTH
OF CULEBRA. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE WITHDRAWING TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY
AND HAS DISSIPATED CONSIDERABLY. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PATCHES OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
AREA AND CAUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE WEST AND THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT BEST
MOISTURE PATCH PASSAGE WILL BE ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SHORT PERIODS OF
VCSH...ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KT
AT TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. WINDS AT LLVLS ARE 10 TO 15 KT
FROM THE EAST. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
08/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND WIND WAVES ARE OF
NEARLY THE SAME HEIGHT...KEEPING SEAS ROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH GRADUALLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE TAKEN DOWN
BY MIDNIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. AFTER
SUNDAY SEAS IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 82 / 20 30 20 20
STT 78 80 78 80 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SUN JAN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXTEND ACROSS THE FA AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL IN ALL...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY TAKES COMMAND OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SHORT PERIODS
OF VCSH...ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS THROUGH EARLY TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...
BUT LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WATERS. A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 74 84 73 / 20 20 10 20

[Gustywind]

ENVIRONMENT

Saint-Martin for his underwater trail

France-Antilles Guadeloupe07.01.2012

80% of our corals are extremely fragile.
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 152992.php

Underwater discovery trail earned an Ifrecor Palm in Saint-Martin.

An underwater trail punctuated by stations of discovery tours? Need to dare, and Saint-Martin was done. The project took body on Pinel islet, in the national natural reserve. A FM equipment installed on the tubas, visitors can listen to messages on the description of the Herbaria and present coral, an explanation on their ecological functionality or on the description of the species of fish visible along the trail throughout its progression.

This original achievement was the echo that it deserved. She has been awarded in the Palmes Ifrecor intended to distinguish the actions orchestrated to protect coral reefs. January 2, Pierre Aliotti, Vice-President of the community of Saint-Martin, is moving to the meeting to receive this award. "I'm affected to be rewarded by this trophy that values all the work carried out for many years: the creation of the reserve, the strong protection orders issued to all ponds, the publication of the 1996 Act, and the intervention of the Conservatoire du littoral, the follow-up of the projects for acquiring land (Galion and Redrock) so many projects made for the quality of life of our fellow citizens."for our visitors, tourists, lungs of the economy. »

PROTECT THE REEFS OF THE OVERSEAS

The French Initiative on the Corraliens reefs (Ifrecor) is a national action for coral reefs of the overseas communities, commenced in March 1999, decision of the Prime Minister. The initiative covers all actions and measures taken for the reefs. The issues are the protection and sustainable management of coral reefs in the communities of the overseas.

To drive this initiative, the Government established a national Committee, placed to the Prime Minister, composed of different colleges bringing together key players involved in the sustainable management of coral reefs. This Committee - which held one of its meetings in Guadeloupe - follows all of the actions and measures in favour of coral reefs. He is responsible for driving the development and implementation of a strategy and a plan of action for the conservation and sustainable management of coral reefs. It is placed under the co-chairmanship of respectively the environment ministers and the overseas. It relies on local committees bringing together, in each of the communities of the overseas, local stakeholders in the management of reefs.

-10% of the world's reefs

The France is the only country in the world which presents coral reefs in three oceans of the globe. French reefs occupy an area of 55000 km2, or approximately 10% of the world's reefs. Six of the French natural reserves (including four of our archipelago) contain this type of habitat, home to more than 40 species of coral. In our archipelago, the struggle to lead is disproportionate: 80% of our corals are either dead, or fragile, as shown by u e n e t u d e d e the ESU (1997). The remaining 20%, they are very threatened.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Let's have a thought for them ...

LES ABYMES
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 152850.php

Anger and emotion a year after drowning keypad-Doubs bridge

Harry MAPOLIN France-Antilles Guadeloupe05.01.2012

One year it is still early for the pain fades after death. (Sylvère Selbonne)

Anger and sadness prevailed, yesterday afternoon, to the commemoration of the first anniversary of the tragedy that killed five people from drowning on the keypad-Doubs bridge

The emotion was high, yesterday afternoon on the keypad-Doubs bridge where the municipality organised a ceremony of commemoration in honour of the five victims washed away by the waters last year. While they were trying to cross, their 4 x 4 truck was submerged by stormwater. The Jean-Bart families who have lost two brothers and a sister-in-law in this drama as well as the Noyon family who lost Robert, father of two children were present. The Féliciane family, by religious conviction did not come.

"We are all the same with them." A year after this tragedy the pain is still bright. We make the vow never a such tragedy never happens again. The city began work in this sense. "From where they are they should we see and appreciate our presence as the true tomb of the dead is the memory of the living", said MP Mayor Éric Jalton before inviting relatives of the deceased to retrieve flowers wreaths offered by the city, the General Council and the Regional Council, to launch in the water under the bridge.

With emotion Hélène and Armel Jean-Bart evoked the memory of their brothers Harry and Villar and wife of this last disappeared in this drama.

"PERSON AFTER THE FUNERAL".

Justine Benin on behalf of the town of mold, Fabert Michely representing the General Council, Marie-Camille Mounien of the Regional Council have expressed their support to the families. Francillonne Jacoby-Koaly, municipal councillor of the opposition while sending a message of comfort to the families, he, raised the problem of the responsibility of the communities which have already repair this bridge before that this tragedy to happen. "Could not help but be angry because there are things that can be avoided," he said. Anger, a word just to describe the words of Rony Noyon who lost his brother in this tragic accident. He does not accept that elected officials say that they help the family. "My brother has left two children and a woman who is not working." Person expressed whether how they survive. "Has never seen elected once the funeral passed and I hear that you help us," said a voice footprint both sadness and revolt. A reception was then scheduled to Boricaud, to House Jean-Bart.

A year after the tragedy, the city blocks keypad Doubs bridge for reconstruction from February.

For more information: "the"bridge of death"will be changed to Doubs"

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST SUN JAN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE DOPPLER SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION BUT WITHOUT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATED THE LOCAL CONDITIONS
TODAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT A
SLIGHT INCREASE ON SHOWER COVERAGE MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. EAST WIND OF AT 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS INCREASING WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 81 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 84 73 84 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST MON JAN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BRUSHED PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME RESULTING IN
INTERVALS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS HOWEVER SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 20 30 20 30
STT 84 73 84 72 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON JAN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
OVER REGION...GENERATING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME RESULTING IN INTERVALS A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER MID WEEK WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION...PEAKING
DURING THE INCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 80 / 30 20 30 20
STT 73 84 72 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. I didn't post this morning because I didn't had internet,but now is back and here I am posting this afternoon's discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWED STREAMER DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY. AS
A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ON SHORE AND
AFFECT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY A SLIGHT INCREASE ON WINDS BEGAN TO GENERATE A
LIGHT CHOP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TOMORROW...THIS WILL GENERATE SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND WAVES ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT FORECAST AS STRONG
WINDS AS EARLIER RUNS DURING THE INCOMING WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO GENERATE LARGE WIND WAVES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THE NEXT NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 70 81 / 40 40 30 30
STT 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon! I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the info from last week¿s cold surge that was very cold and produced the coldest temperatures since 2010 in some locations.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 AM AST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUN. BROAD
TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN
NEXT WEEK BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING CAP AND RAPID EROSION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT GREATLY SUPPRESSING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. EVEN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL/DAYTIME
SHOWERS LATE THU NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS/TRADE
WINDS INCREASE.

NEXT WEEK...RIDGE FLATTENS AS BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ATLC. A FRONTAL ZONE IS ALSO FCST TO STALL ALONG 20N BY 12Z TUE.
WINDS ALSO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR CLOUD
CUSTERS/SHOWERS AT NIGHT UNDER A LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT. NO
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/TRADES INCREASE. BUT SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SIG FIRES DEVELOPED YDAY IN THE AREA
AROUND THE ALBERGUE OLIMPICO IN SALINAS WHICH WERE DETECTED BY
BOTH GOES AND NASA SATELLITES AND CONFIRMED BY FIRE DEPT. BUILDING
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY WILL RESULT IN RAPID EROSION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WITH MIN_RH DROPPING TO AROUND 45% TODAY AND
TO NEAR 30% THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS TODAY AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON THU. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS DUE TO LACK OF SIG RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. MAXT XPCD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S COULD LEAD TO EASY IGNITION OF FUELS.
OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WEST AND NORTH COASTS THROUGH SUN WITH FIRE DANGER
DECREASING/IMPROVING NEXT WEEK DUE TO A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/RH AND PRECIP CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 20
STT 80 72 80 72 / 0 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUN. BROAD
TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS INTERACTED AND GENERATED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THE DRY ENVIRONMENT
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMUM DURING THESE SHOWERS.

A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO STALL NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
CLOUD FRAGMENTS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ
DUE TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 TO
15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...THIS WIND PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE WAVE HEIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACHING OUR LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 80 72 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST THU JAN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ALMOST OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD POLAR TROUGH
WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING AND RELOCATING TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL ZONE IS
FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH PWAT NOW DOWN 1.14 INCHES AND A
DEWPOINT OF 66F AT SJU. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH
ALMOST A PICTURE PERFECT DAY EXPECTED. OTHER THAN SOME WISPY HIGH
CLOUDS AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE. CNTRL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND BUILD SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT/WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST TONIGHT WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS AND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR. PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT MAINLY ISOLD
CVRG BOTH DAY AND NIGHT AS STRONG RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS.

NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIP AS BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ESTABLISHES JUST TO THE
NORTH AND RIDGE FLATTENS. A FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON TUE AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH PUSH FROM A 1030 MB SFC HIGH
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY WED BEFORE
DISSIPATING. EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
NIGHT. BUT AS IS USUAL WITH FRONTS EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH CNTRL/NORTHEAST COAST UNDER A NORTHEAST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT THROUGH ABOUT
13/06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR CARIB WATERS AS WINDS PICK
UP TO 20 KTS AND REMAIN LIKE THAT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TO
YIELD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
AMZ710 UNDER FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST/SRN SLOPES AND WEST COAST DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPS/LOW
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS. OBS SHOWED THAT MIN_RH
DROPPED TO NEAR 50% YESTERDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN_RH TO DROP EASILY INTO THE
40S. MAXT IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLY LOW 90S WILL ALLOW EASY
IGNITION OF FUELS. WINDS NEAR 15 KT COULD MAKE MANAGEMENT CONTROL
OF ANY FIRES DIFFICULT AND PEOPLE SHOULD SAFELY DISCARD ANY
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 81 73 / 0 10 10 20
STT 78 70 78 70 / 0 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JAN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING AND RELOCATING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS GENERATING A FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX JUST BEFORE
NOON. ALSO CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT RADAR
ONLY SHOWED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THEM. ANOTHER
AREA AFFECTED BY ISOLATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WAS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS...WHERE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE SHOWER COVERAGE.
THEREFORE EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH
SOME AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLAND AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT THROUGH ABOUT
13/06Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FOR CASTED FOR THE INCOMING WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT CHOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SUNDAY BUT A FRONTAL
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND INCREASE
THE WIND AND SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 82 / 10 10 20 20
STT 70 78 70 78 / 10 10 40 40

[Macrocane]

Good evening! Most of Central America has warmed up and both minimum and maximum temperatures have been warmer than last week. These are the temperatures registered yesterday (January 11 2012):
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. Near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Warmer than normal highs were experienced in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Near normal highs in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.9°C (48.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F) Coldest since December 9 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F) Coolest since December 7 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F) Coldest since March 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.6°C (70.9°F) The day before it registered 20.5°C (68.9°F) The coolest since October 24 2011
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F) Coldest since December 10 2011

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F) The day before it registered 36°C (97°F) the hottest since September 8 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F) The day before it registered 28°C (82°F) the warmest since December 8.
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.9°C (80.4°F) The day before it registered 27.2°C (81.0°F) the warmest since November 26
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F) Warmest since November 5
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The good weather that has prevailed for tyhe past few days will continue until next Tuesday,when a cold front will arrive bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JAN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN AS
BROAD POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING CDFNT TUE NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE SHOWS CNTRL ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BUILDING SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A RESULT WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL CARRY A BIT MORE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHOWERS WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SO DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLD
CVRG WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT THE MOST. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SAT.

GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY ISOLD IN CVRG AND SHALLOW AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD. SHEARLINE CONVERGENCE INCREASES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AND WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO FORM ON THE NORTH COAST AS COOL
ADVECTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP AS BROAD POLAR TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
SUCCUMBS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS
POLAR FRONT APPROACHES AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN. SHOWERS APPEAR
MORE THAN LIKELY TUE WITH DRYING EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. FAIR
WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK AS AIR MASS
DRIES OUT UNDER A FRESH NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 13/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW AT AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A 0153Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SFC WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS OUR
CWA BUT 20 KTS AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TODAY SOLIDLY INTO THE SCEC CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING THRU
MIDDAY SAT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SCEC CRITERIA MON NIGHT THRU WED.
SCA`S WERE ISSUED LAST EVENING FOR SVRL MARINE ZONES STARTING
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON SO I`LL LEAVE IT AS IS. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT ACROSS THE ATLC AND UP TO 8 FT ACROSS THE
CARIB. SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE ATLC TUE IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND NORTHEAST WIND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH TO VERY
HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL...SRN
SLOPES AND WEST COAST DUE TO CRITICAL FIRE WINDS...MARGINALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
APPEAR ON TAP THROUGH SUN. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YDAY THIS COULD BE OFFSET BY
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH ON SUN REDUCING/LESSENING
THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT. CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED MON-TUE AS A SLOW MOVING CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FURTHER REDUCING THE FIRE DANGER. FIRE DANGER COULD INCREASE AGAIN
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF NOT ENOUGH RAIN IS RECEIVED. WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN BUT A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE FIRE RISK
SOMEWHAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 71 / 10 0 10 30
STT 80 70 80 70 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI JAN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
MONDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVING US SOME MODERATE WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS. AS FAR AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
CONCERNED...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASE IN PW VALUES
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE AND A
FEW PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS WILL BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS...AS WELL
AS THE ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO UP TO 22 KNOTS. BUOY 42060 TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 21.4 KNOTS AND GUSTING OVER
27 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 72 / 10 0 20 30
STT 80 70 80 70 / 10 10 20 30

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered yesterday (January 12) in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador, near normal lows in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal lows in Honduras.
-Warmer than normal highs in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica. Near normal highs in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.7°C (45.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F) Coldest since December 1 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16°C (61°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20°C (68°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.7°C (94.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27°C (81°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34°C (93°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN TO THE EAST OF 70W AS
POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. A SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING CDFNT TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER DATA
BETWEEN 600-300 MB. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BUT THE GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR. ONLY ISOLD
CVRG XPCD WITH JUST A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE AT BEST.

SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF ST.CROIX LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL ZONE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS THE FASTEST WITH FROPA WITH THE 00Z GFES
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND THE 00Z OP GFS THE SLOWEST. RIGHT NOW...PREFER
THE FASTER ECMWF AND 00Z GFES AS HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT IS
PRETTY STRONG IN THE 0RDER OF 1030 MB OR SO. AT ANY RATE...MODELS
SHOW FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY WED. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE NCNTRL/NORTHEAST COAST. SINCE THE FASTER ECMWF IS
PREFERRED...SHARP DRYING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
POLAR TROUGH FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN NOAM THAT IS FCST TO EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TJSJ 14/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2KM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FT BOTH ATLC AND CARIB OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TODAY IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WINDS
SLACKEN. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TUE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AND CARIB PASSAGES IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND
NORTHEAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH/SRN
SLOPES AND WEST COAST DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...DRY FUELS AND MARGINALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES. A COUPLE OF FIRES DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON ONE ALONG THE COAMO/SALINAS COUNTY LINE AND ANOTHER
AROUND THE ALBERGUE OLIMPICO AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE
DRY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES MON AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CDFNT WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND TUE DECREASING THE
FIRE DANGER. SOUTHWEST PR MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT
THE THICK CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER. SHARP DRYING
IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...A COOLER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY MITIGATE
THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 10 30 30 40
STT 80 73 78 73 / 20 30 30 30