Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[weatherdude1108]

As we gaze with melancholy over the model predictions in a haze of frustrated disbelief, we should remember 27 years ago (to the day), which marked the last day in a series of days of a snowfall event that continues to hold the all-time record inches of snowfall for San Antonio. We took a family photo in front of the mailbox on January 12, 1985 (still snowing heavily) with a tied red ribbon on the front of the mailbox. We used the photo for the December Christmas card the following Christmas. I helped shovel snow from my neighbor's driveway with a yard shovel (no snow shovel available obviously). YIKES that was hard! But great times! Anyway, just a reminder of the wintry possibilities here this time of year (NOAA link below).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/1985snowevent.pdf

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

However there is now this in my very near future http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=cold_temperatures_moving_int_120112&eccode=WWCASK0021N&warningdisplay=ec&warningtype=sw?ref=stormwatch_city

The video ought to make you folks happy (if you can see it??? and *if* there is a hope of it making its way down there)

Looks like I'll finally have to find my heavy duty cold outerwear (maybe).

[vbhoutex]

As we gaze with melancholy over the model predictions in a haze of frustrated disbelief, we should remember 27 years ago (to the day), which marked the last day in a series of days of a snowfall event that continues to hold the all-time record inches of snowfall for San Antonio. We took a family photo in front of the mailbox on January 12, 1985 (still snowing heavily) with a tied red ribbon on the front of the mailbox. We used the photo for the December Christmas card the following Christmas. I helped shovel snow from my neighbor's driveway with a yard shovel (no snow shovel available obviously). YIKES that was hard! But great times! Anyway, just a reminder of the wintry possibilities here this time of year (NOAA link below).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/1985snowevent.pdf

I remember this because I was so freaking jealous that iirc we got nothing but cold rain in Houston. I think the closest accumulations were about 70 miles West and NW of the metro Houston area.

[Portastorm]

Aahhh ... it's come to this? We have no real winter weather to speak of so we all have to go down memory lane for our favorite events?! REALLY?!

OK, I'll jump in to.

I remember two snow events in Austin in January 1985. I had just moved here about 8 months previous from northeastern Ohio (where I grew up in the snowbelt, seeing on average 50-60 inches of snow a winter). I could not believe that, first of all, it would snow in Austin, Texas ... and second, how a few inches would paralyze everything. The first snow event I had to abandon my car off Barton Springs Road at a restaurant, hiked up to the Austin American-Statesman building on Town Lake where I knew my brother was working, and hung out in the newsroom. I actually ended up getting put up in a hotel room with my bro and some other folks because the roads were so bad and nobody was going anywhere.

Anyhoo ... that was a "fun" month. Wish we could see a repeat.

[wxman57]

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '86.

[srainhoutx]

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '86.

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '73...

[northtxboy]

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '86.

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '73...

Dont make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '2011,,,,,I am only 29 its the only one I thought was good

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the SST from the previous page, sure still looks like la nina to me!

[Rgv20]

I see a couple of you guys want to go back to memory lane......Well being from the Rio Grande Valley the Christmas 2004 snow event is second to none as far as winter weather. Last years early February Ice event is a distant second. I would never thought I would see the day where the high temperature would be 29! Even the 2004 Christmas snow we had a high temperature of 34-35.

The low this morning was 37 and it looks like I'm not going to see the 30s for a while...As far as the forecast it looks like we are in for a warm up in the next 7 days. The expected high for my area is in the mid 80s come M.L.King Day!

[Ntxw]

Jesus, GFS/Canadian/Euro says January is the new April! This is boring . Euro has MAYBE (if that) a slight hint of pattern change but that is waaaaay out and hardly trustworthy and not much of it either...sigh. I say we exit this interglacial period and bring on the next ice age!!!

[gpsnowman]

Jesus, GFS/Canadian/Euro says January is the new April! This is boring . Euro has MAYBE (if that) a slight hint of pattern change but that is waaaaay out and hardly trustworthy and not much of it either...sigh. I say we exit this interglacial period and bring on the next ice age!!!

Hey, at least we have model agreement!

[Portastorm]

Jesus, GFS/Canadian/Euro says January is the new April! This is boring . Euro has MAYBE (if that) a slight hint of pattern change but that is waaaaay out and hardly trustworthy and not much of it either...sigh. I say we exit this interglacial period and bring on the next ice age!!!

Hey, at least we have model agreement!

That's true! We can't say that all too often.

I don't know ... I actually took away a little hope from the end of that 12z Euro run. For several days now NONE of the medium-range models have shown anything but a Pac NW firehose and a mild/zonal flow for the rest of us. At least we now have one run which suggests a little change. Sure it's 240 hours out ... but it's something.

I'm reminded of what our friend srainhoutx has been suggesting in that a major storm system shows up around that time (the 25th, +/- a day or two) and a possible colder scheme for us after that system. We shall see.

[Rgv20]

Sorry Porta but the 12zECMWF Ensembles and 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run do not agree with the operational run of the Euro on the possible hint of cooler weather


12zECMWF Ensembles forecast 500mb Anomalies valid for Tuesday Jan24.



Looking at the 12zGFS Ensemble Mean 7 day 2m Temperature Departure forecast for Monday Jan16 thru Sunday Jan22 we are going to be way above normal temperature wise (9-15F) for much of Texas. In fact it does get a tad warmer after that..



My gut feeling is that late this month heading until the early part of February a cooler pattern should return to Texas....after all it is winter!

[hriverajr]

I start teaching again on Monday... I think I will take a 3-4 day hiatus from the models.. its too depressing right now..

[Portastorm]

Hey Rgv20 ... I'll see your 12z Euro ensembles and raise you the 12z GFS ensemble members from around 288 hours out.

[Rgv20]

Well tonight's 0zECMWF has a nice upper level low clipping North Texas by early next week. However 0zGFS&CMC don't agree on this scenario....Lets see if other models jump on board or if the Euro drops it in future runs.

[srainhoutx]

Jesus, GFS/Canadian/Euro says January is the new April! This is boring . Euro has MAYBE (if that) a slight hint of pattern change but that is waaaaay out and hardly trustworthy and not much of it either...sigh. I say we exit this interglacial period and bring on the next ice age!!!

Hey, at least we have model agreement!

That's true! We can't say that all too often.

I don't know ... I actually took away a little hope from the end of that 12z Euro run. For several days now NONE of the medium-range models have shown anything but a Pac NW firehose and a mild/zonal flow for the rest of us. At least we now have one run which suggests a little change. Sure it's 240 hours out ... but it's something.

I'm reminded of what our friend srainhoutx has been suggesting in that a major storm system shows up around that time (the 25th, +/- a day or two) and a possible colder scheme for us after that system. We shall see.

The Euro continued that trend with the 00Z output and more than just a couple of the 00Z GFES members @ 500mb are painting an interesting picture near hour 240 and beyond, Portastorm. Enjoy the warm up while it lasts...

[wxman57]

I'm not really seeing much indication of a pattern change at the end of the Euro's run, srain. It has a trof deepening near Alaska after 200 hrs but the trof is filling in by 240 hrs as flow goes more zonal again. Maybe it's just the warm-monger in me...

[Ntxw]

I'm not really seeing much indication of a pattern change at the end of the Euro's run, srain. It has a trof deepening near Alaska after 200 hrs but the trof is filling in by 240 hrs as flow goes more zonal again. Maybe it's just the warm-monger in me...

Maybe we can get that Alaskan trough/vortex to retrograde a bit closer to the Aleutian Islands vs the Gulf of Alaska itself and get ourselves a west coast ridge! Temperatures in NW and Western Canada are about to ice over, the border between Alaska and the Yukon (-50+ below in some spots) is just downright Frigid It's comin for ya SaskatchewanScreamer!


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Edit: 12z GFS is trying to hint at a storm system around the same frame as the Euro showed and Srainhoutx beating our heads with



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[Portastorm]

Agreed Ntxw!

Well, I'll tell you one thing ... the 12z GFS is rolling in now and it's definitely trending in the direction of the Euro in terms of a major storm system crossing the Southern Plains around the 23rd-24th of the month. While this is merely anecdotal, it seems to me like the GFS has trended in the Euro's direction over the last 24 hours or so.

Whether or not the storm system pulls down Arctic air remains to be seen but the trend is our friend to most of us here, except for those warm-mongerers!