Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like another storm headed towards West Texas?

[northtxboy]

Ok guys this is what I have come up with. Its going to be a warm winter. I dont see any winter type weather anytime soon. But!!! I was talking with my 94 year old grandfather yesterday and we started talking about weather. I told him none of the models show anything in the future for winter. He told me that he remembered acouple of winter when it was real warm, so warm that the grass started to turn green agian in jan. Then he said its a sign that something big is comming. He said in the 94 years that he has lived in texas warm weather in the winter means a big ICE storm is comming. Now he is 94 and he hates computers and thinks weather men get paid to lie but he has seen more winters then me. So what I want to know is,, is this the type of weather we get before a big ice storm comes? Is it possable that he is right? I am going to start resreaching all the big ice storms that texas has had and see if it was a warm winter. I would rather see sunshine and warm temps than a ice storm anyday.

[Portastorm]

I would say this in reply to your post, northtxboy ... no computer models can account for 94 years of experience with Texas weather. Your grandfather's words should be heeded. I would trust what he tells you.

[northtxboy]

I would say this in reply to your post, northtxboy ... no computer models can account for 94 years of experience with Texas weather. Your grandfather's words should be heeded. I would trust what he tells you.

It really got me to thinking when he told me that. I dont think I have lived threw a ice storm that was real bad before. I was born in 82 and the only one I remember affecting me was in 2000. Driving threw dallas with my gf at the time was not fun at all. But I work disasters and have seen the after of big ice storms and thats not something I want to go threw. I couldnt go two weeks without power.

[aggiecutter]

Agreed Ntxw!

Well, I'll tell you one thing ... the 12z GFS is rolling in now and it's definitely trending in the direction of the Euro in terms of a major storm system crossing the Southern Plains around the 23rd-24th of the month. While this is merely anecdotal, it seems to me like the GFS has trended in the Euro's direction over the last 24 hours or so.

Whether or not the storm system pulls down Arctic air remains to be seen but the trend is our friend to most of us here, except for those warm-mongerers!

Looks like that event might be a possible severe storm-heavy rain event east of I-35. At this time, it doesn't appear to be much cold air on the backside of the system in Texas. The severe storm threat for that time period is already being discussed on several of the weather forums.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[DonWrk]

Here is an outlook at possibly our next storm system in the long range, Steve McCauley has a good discussion going on about it on his facebook page http://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

[ndale]

Ok guys this is what I have come up with. Its going to be a warm winter. I dont see any winter type weather anytime soon. But!!! I was talking with my 94 year old grandfather yesterday and we started talking about weather. I told him none of the models show anything in the future for winter. He told me that he remembered acouple of winter when it was real warm, so warm that the grass started to turn green agian in jan. Then he said its a sign that something big is comming. He said in the 94 years that he has lived in texas warm weather in the winter means a big ICE storm is comming. Now he is 94 and he hates computers and thinks weather men get paid to lie but he has seen more winters then me. So what I want to know is,, is this the type of weather we get before a big ice storm comes? Is it possable that he is right? I am going to start resreaching all the big ice storms that texas has had and see if it was a warm winter. I would rather see sunshine and warm temps than a ice storm anyday.

Just an observation for 60+ winters in Tx. I've noticied during the calmest and mildest of winters we still usually have 1 or 2 icy events even here in central Tx. I do remember a few winters when it was mild or warm all season long and no wintry precepitation at all. Don't know what that observation is worth but thought I would added it to the discussion.

[Ptarmigan]

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '86.

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '73...

Don't make me jump in and talk about the "winter" of '78.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Lala Land (300+hrs) is showing a pretty potent upper level low over Northern Mexico. GFS is also painting out some snow during this same time frame for the Del Rio, Eagle Pass and even San Antonio gets until the action. Even my neck of the woods gets a dusting of snow according to the GFS world!

Forecast Valid for Saturday Evening Jan 29.




As a side note the operational 0zGFS is also showing a pattern change as we head until February......Advertising more ridging south of Alaska which would be more conducive for cold air to reach the US and according to the GFS there is going to be some really cold air in NW Canada.





I know its way out in time but at least the GFS is showing the possibility of some winter fun which is a change of the past few runs.

Edit:0zGFS Ensembles showing some Ridging in the Gulf Of Alaska but also showing ridging in the SW part of the US...

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen JB tweet about the rise in the past four days to positive of the daily soi.

13 Jan 2012 1012.34 1007.50 +1.09
14 Jan 2012 1011.88 1006.60 +3.16
15 Jan 2012 1011.98 1005.50 +8.81
16 Jan 2012 1013.49 1005.25 +17.11

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[wxman57]

Canadian and GFS indicate only a moderate trof axis passing north Texas on the 24th. Only the Euro has the somewhat deep upper-level low moving into the Big Bend area of TX on the 24th. Chances are that a blend of the Euro and Canadian/GFS will be what actually happens.

Euro ensembles have temps 5F-15F above normal on Tuesday the 24th. No significant cold through 360 hrs (sfc temps normal or higher). GFS ensembles are similar - no significant below-normal temps in TX through 384 hrs.

I've heard the stories of really warm winter periods in the past followed by winter storms (noticed them myself). However, there are two ways we can get warm here in Texas during the winter. One is with an amplified flow pattern with a trof axis across the Rockies or westward. During such a pattern, there is often some very cold weather in Canada that slips into the U.S. from the Rockies westward. Another way is that we just have zonal flow and no real cold air anywhere.

I suspect that it's much easier to have a quick pattern change from the former pattern (deep trof to our west) rather than the current pattern (zonal flow and no cold air anywhere).

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I suspect that it's much easier to have a quick pattern change from the former pattern (deep trof to our west) rather than the current pattern (zonal flow and no cold air anywhere).

Barely a novice at this, but is that really the case right now? Isn't there historic cold air pooling in Alaska and Western Canada right now?

[wxman57]

I suspect that it's much easier to have a quick pattern change from the former pattern (deep trof to our west) rather than the current pattern (zonal flow and no cold air anywhere).

Barely a novice at this, but is that really the case right now? Isn't there historic cold air pooling in Alaska and Western Canada right now?

"Historic cold air"? Hardly. There is a small pocket of -40F to -50F air in NW Canada, which is about 30-40 degrees below normal. That's about it. Here's a map of current observations in western Canada and Alaska.

[Portastorm]

I think his (BrokenGlassRepublicn) point was to clarify your (wxman57) statement that there is "no cold air anywhere." There is cold air somewhere and it's up in Alaska and in the NW Territories. But if you were referring to "no cold anywhere" as being in a location in or near the continental US, you would be accurate.

While not current, there has been historic cold in Alaska this winter season as evidenced by what has occurred to Nome, Alaska, literally frozen in by ice and needing a Russian tanker to bring fuel to the city.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/01/15/the-saga-of-a-fuel-delivery-tanker-finally-reaches-nome-alaska/

[gboudx]

Alan Huffman says Feb should be colder.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... ts_article

[wxman57]

Alan Huffman says Feb should be colder.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... ts_article

Considering how warm January has been, that may be a safe statement. Kind of like predicting that the 2006 hurricane season would be quieter than 2005 in the spring of 2006. Of course, I'll continue to hope for a nice warm February.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The models have lost my faith. They are building massive cold up there but its not going anywhere! I must say though, i love the warm weather for now. If it aint cold enough to snow, then i dont want the cold at all! I cant say when, but i think a severe cold snap is coming. Lots of winter left. We have nearly two months for it to happen.

[wxman57]

Just went out for lunch at one of my favorite spots (Burger House off Airport) and that sure is some beautiful winter weather!! It doesn't get any better than this - sunny and mid 70s in January (except, maybe, when it's sunny and low 80s in January).

Taking a look at the 12Z models - the Euro is MUCH farther north with the upper low on Tuesday the 24th. Takes the center across the northern TX panhandle vs. the Big Bend area. 12Z GFS has the upper low center a BIT farther north - over Minneapolis! That's quite a difference. 12Z Canadian doesn't go out far enough, but it doesn't show anything in TX or MN prior to the 24th, just a big upper low off southern CA. Needless to say, there's no model agreement that far out.

However, none of the models is indicating any snow down south, except for the Euro forecast snow as far south as the OK panhandle next Tuesday.

Sure is quiet in here...

[Portastorm]

You (wxman57) better hope The Winter That Wasn't continues after all of this warm-weather taunting, that's all I can say.

If/when things change, we're gonna do a snow/ice dance on your head!

[orangeblood]

There is some extremely cold air forecast to build in Western Canada over the next 10 days...reaching some 4 standard deviations below normal in some parts. I think this board will wake up if we can get a split flow to develop, imo!!