#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:26 am
ZCZC 871
WTIO30 FMEE 191332
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED LAONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPP
ING AROUND THE CENTER. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DEPICT AN HINT OF A WARM SPOT IN THE CDO. CO
NSEQUENTLY, INTENSIFICATION COULD BE STRONGER THAN SAID IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR
ECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWA
RDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCE
SS IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. TH
IS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN
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