SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 990.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.5

[HURAKAN]

well-organized system

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 191857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5-
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPPING
AROUND THE CENTER.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FORECAST
TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWARDS
TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THIS
SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

[weatherwindow]

a general question here on madagascar channel storms: what provides the triggering disturbance for cyclongenesis in this area...mid-latitude troughs, decaying fronts?

[HURAKAN]

eye appears to have already developed

[HURAKAN]

Rapidly intensifying

[HurricaneBill]

They should have named it Fred.

[Hurricanehink]

http://simpsons.wikia.com/wiki/Funzo - Funso? Am I the only one who remembers that Simpsons episode?!

[HURAKAN]

eye clearly visible in the water vapor

[Chacor]

Meteo France have gone straight from a 45 kt moderate TS to a 70 kt TC, skipping STS:

WTIO30 FMEE 200049

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5+
FUNSO INTENSIFIES NOW RAPIDLY AND SHOWS A SMALL EYE ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY.
LAST 3 AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS HIGHER (NEAR 5.5-) BUT MENTIONED FT IS LIMITED BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS AND AGREES WITH AN AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

NWP MODELS DIVERGE THEN STRONGLY.
TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGE (CF Z500) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM.
THE NORTHERN NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD STEERS THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERS IT WESTWARDS.

CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO, FUNSO SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY FROM SATURDAY 21/1200Z TO SUNDAY 22/1200Z. DURING THIS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY 22/1200Z, SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO ADOPT A NEW TRACK EASTWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.
BEING BACK OVER HIGH HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY 23/1200Z, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSITING SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THIS TRACK ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER REGULAR INTENSIFICATION.

EVEN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED BY RSMC LA REUNION AS THE MOST LIKELY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WITHIN SATURDAY 21 AND SUNDAY 22 GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
NEAR QUELIMANE OR BEIRA REGIONS .. WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

[Chacor]

Incredible: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/12HRS from MF, and in their discussion they state they were held back by Dvorak constraints otherwise they would've gone for T5.5. I don't think I've ever seen a D2.5/12HRS.

[Macrocane]

That's is really a rapid intensification and could still have several days over water.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 743
WTIO30 FMEE 200655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 38.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- AND CI=4.5+
THE SMALL EYE HAS DESAPPEARED ON THE LAST SATELLITE PICTURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SU
BTROPICAL RIDGE.
NWP MODELS DIVERGE THEN STRONGLY.
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE (CF Z500) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A
ND SHOULD STEERS IT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48TAU, ANOTHER MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTH-WESTWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOR THE NETX 48 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST AND WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC ENEGETIC POTENTIAL (SLO
W MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 48, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER
LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY BEYOND TAU
48.
EVEN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED BY RSMC LA REUNION AS THE MOST LIKELY, THE SYSTEM SHOUL
D WITHIN SATURDAY 21 AND SUNDAY 22 GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR QUELIMANE OR BEIRA RE
GIONS .. WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS OF
THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[DanieleItalyRm]

Hi guys, You do not see a similarities between Mozambique Tropical cyclones And Mediterranean Tropical cyclones? all often very small for example..They squeezed between two large areas of land. Obviously, mozambique cyclones, are much more likely 'to develop..



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[Chickenzilla]

Yes,but Chanda(previous tropical cyclone in Mozambique Channel) was pretty large.Sometimes it covered entire Madagascar.
And Mozambique Channel tropical cyclones mostly originate from tropical disturbances but Mediterranean originate from non-tropical.
Mozambique Channel tropical cyclones develop more frequently because of warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of tropical disturbances.
And Funso is not small.It extends 8 parallels in lgeographic atidude and 10 meridians in geographic longitude.

And here is the latest satellite image of Funso

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 200655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 38.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- AND CI=4.5+
THE SMALL EYE HAS DESAPPEARED ON THE LAST SATELLITE PICTURES. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBALLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NWP MODELS DIVERGE THEN STRONGLY.
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE (CF Z500) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERS IT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48TAU, ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOR THE NETX 48 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST AND WEAKENING OF THE
OCEANIC ENEGETIC POTENTIAL (SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 48, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY BEYOND
TAU 48.
EVEN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED BY RSMC LA REUNION AS THE
MOST LIKELY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WITHIN SATURDAY 21 AND SUNDAY 22 GET
CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR QUELIMANE OR BEIRA REGIONS ..
WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME ...INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

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