I feel like NHC/TPC blew it with Grace

[DJJordan]

OK...My feeling on this storm....there were multiple centers of Low Level Circulation. To me this was a Tropical Wave that just happened to move into the SE Texas area and bring lots of rain. I don't believe this was really a Tropical Cyclone. Even the NHC is close to admitting that. Is this the better to be safe than sorry attitude? I am sure the local NWS offices could've handled this fairly well. The forecast before this happened was pretty much alot of rain this weekend anyways. The official center is still out in the Gulf at this time but looking at Satellite Pics as of 3:30 CDT....It would appear that all that's left out there is a feeder band training across SE Texas and that the center is already ashore. That is just my thought. :?

[weatherlover427]

Many people in the overnight chat feel that way as well. :? It does appear that convection may be flaring up again now though. :?

[DJJordan]

Yeah I see that on Satellite and Radar.... Not that I am dissappointed by the way this storm has gone....but I kinda feel like this should've never been a named storm at all. It's been one heavy rain band after another here in Houston Overnight.

[weatherlover427]

I just wonder where the discussion is ... 6:30 AM Eastern and it's still not up. :?

[wxman57]

All day yesterday I was arguing that "Grace" was no more than a sharp wave axis. Recon couldn't find a center, and there were no west winds. You can't tell me that winds in squalls weren't just as high when the disturbance reached the Yucatan, so why didn't the NHC name it then? The reason of course is that it was now producing 35kt winds where there was someone to record them. No matter that there wasn't a circultion, the offshore rig operators were finding TS winds so they upgraded it. Shoot, let's call every tropical wave a storm now, since every wave will produce 35kt winds in squalls.

It got even more ridiculous overnight when the NHC was insisting the "center" was southeast of CRP. Just looking at satellite, one could clearly see the vorticity center was moving into the upper TX coast. Buoy data this morning show lowest pressures near the coast at Freeport, even a hint of a swirl inland now. The only thing left offshore is a "feeder band".

Recon found max FL winds of 32kts overnight at 1500 ft, that equates to 20kts at the surface (30% off for 1500ft). Yep, that's a TS! But they keep it a TS just in case. Like there's one chance in a million it'll actually reform and become a TS now that it's moved inland.

Wasted my whole day yesterday (and today) on this nothing storm. Sure it'll produce lots of rain - which this part of Texas really needs. My trees are wilting.

Ok, I'm done ranting, gotta go shower and get to work to kill a TS.

[cycloneye]

The best I would haved gone if I were a forecaster at the NHC is TD status.Again s it happened with TD#9 one ship reported strong winds as well a bouy but that was a thunderstorm at that time in that area where the ship was and the bouy is? ?This is a rainmaker and nothing else windwise so those in Houston and Galveston dont have to get out any panels or shutters.

[Stormsfury]

The best I would haved gone if I were a forecaster at the NHC is TD status.Again s it happened with TD#9 one ship reported strong winds as well a bouy but that was a thunderstorm at that time in that area where the ship was and the bouy is? ?This is a rainmaker and nothing else windwise so those in Houston and Galveston dont have to get out any panels or shutters.

Avila wrote both TD #9, and TD #11 initial advisories. Maybe trying to lose that Dr. Tropical Death title, maybe?

Anyways, there was a definite broad circulation indicated by the surface reports and ship reports, but no tight defined LLC ...

Well, Grace makes up for the one they aren't looking at around 8ºN, 32ºW (from QuikScat pass).

SF

[Thunder44]

I think the NHC was quicker to name this one, cuz they thought it could blow up and wanted to alert people sooner then later who plenty are vacationing on the coast this holiday weekend. I don't think was ever technially a tropical cyclone, but you really can get the same imapct, (a weak one). When Erika was passing through Florida, they should named it then cuz it looked more organzied then this one ever did to me. Grace always had a more linear look to it then circular.

[DJJordan]

Well, now think about this....the forecast was for a more active Tropical Season. That I don't doubt but is it possible the NHC doesn't want to be wrong so they went ahead and named Grace....TD9 should've never been named a TD.... Erika should've been named before crossing Florida. So far they have really had trouble with the weak systems this year. Something needs to be reviewed this off season and changed I'm thinking.

[Derek Ortt]

Recon somehow did find a center last night with 40KT FL winds. This was an STS, not a TS and made landfall as an STD

[DJJordan]

That makes since to me..... Don't get me wrong ....nobody's perfect.... With the exception of Claudette this season thus far....It seems to me that Gulf storms have really had a hard time developing this year and now that we are in September and approaching the Autumn season....Weather patterns will start to move a little faster making tropical development even more difficult but not impossible.

[Lindaloo]

Well, Georges did not have a hard time developing and moving into the MS Coast in late September.

[DJJordan]

That's why I say not impossible....The way storms have developed this year in the gulf....It reminds me of the way storms would look in the gulf say in late Sept or October. They have had a hard time being organized this year in the GOM

[Lindaloo]

That's why I say not impossible....The way storms have developed this year in the gulf....It reminds me of the way storms would look in the gulf say in late Sept or October. They have had a hard time being organized this year in the GOM

Gotcha!! You are right, things could be worse.

[DJJordan]

yep...

[PTrackerLA]

Let's not forget Opal who basically blew up in the gulf at the beginning of the October. I figure we still have about 6 weeks left to go for the northern gulf coast's tropical season.

[DJJordan]

I agree and am not saying to let anyones guard down.... This has been a strange gulf season and may get even stranger before ending this year...lol