Tornado outbreak, at least 2 dead, January 22-23

[CrazyC83]

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222337Z - 230130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR
DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 993 MB LOW
POSITIONED OVER ERN KS...WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD INTO
SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN MS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S EXIST S OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH ACCOMPANIED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPR 40S TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/PSEUDO
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL AR TOWARD THE SRN IL/WRN KY
BORDER. AS A POTENT UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD INTO WRN
KY...ALLOWING UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.

MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN MO
AND NRN AR DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH...AS WELL AS
MORE SUBTLE ASCENT ALONG BOTH THE PRIMARY AND PSEUDO WARM FRONTS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
DURING BY 00-03Z TIME PERIOD OVER NERN AR/SERN MO AND POSSIBLY WRN
KY/SRN IL. STRONG VEERING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED ABOVE A
50+ KT S-SWLY LLJ WILL FAVOR FAST NELY STORM MOTIONS FROM 40-60 KT.
THE STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS AND LINES POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN
ADDITION...VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /WITH 0-1 KM SRH
AOA 400 M2 S-2/ WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT IS
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS /I.E. SLIGHTLY COOL NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/. HOWEVER...IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...THEN WATCH TYPE WILL BE
TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 01/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37679149 38778919 38758735 38158662 37208665 36608769
36439050 36659209 37679149

[CrazyC83]

I'll be in until about midnight, then again around 8 am tomorrow probably.

[CrazyC83]

Cell near Vilonia, AR quickly starting to rotate. (That was also where the last Super Outbreak began really)

[CrazyC83]

Consider WW 5 to extend southwest briefly.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230007Z - 230100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

A NARROW SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW EXISTS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY SW OF WW 5. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE
INTO WW 5...SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LEAD BAND OF TSTMS FROM INDEPENDENCE TO LAFAYETTE COUNTIES CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING TRENDS
AS CELLS MATURE WITHIN AN EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SECONDARY AREA OF CELLS HAVE INCREASED FARTHER W IN CO-LOCATION WITH
THE BAND OF GREATEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIVOTING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE. AS THIS IMPULSE EJECTS E/NEWD...BOTH AREAS OF TSTMS SHOULD
MORE RAPIDLY MATURE INTO WW 5 THIS EVENING...WITH THIS SCENARIO
APPEARING WELL REPRESENTED BY THE 21Z HRRR. HOWEVER THROUGH ABOUT
02Z...A SMALL CORRIDOR EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
/INCLUDING A TORNADO/ OVER SWRN AR.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34919200 34399194 33049219 32979283 32979370 33299399
33629404 33839394 34389337 34809275 34919200

[WeatherGuesser]

First SVR warnings now popping up in AR.

[WeatherGuesser]

Up to 6 current SVRs now, all along the western edge of the watch box for WW0005.

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHITE OAK LAKE...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF CAMDEN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
LUNET... LESTER... HARLOW...
BEARDEN... WARNER... TROY...
PINE GROVE... MILLVILLE... HOLLY SPRINGS...
HARMONY GROVE... EAST CAMDEN... EAGLE MILLS...
CHIDESTER... AMY... VELIE...
VANDUZER... SPRING HILL... SMEAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[CrazyC83]

Two tornado warnings now.

[WeatherGuesser]

[cycloneye]

A hook forming there?

[Bunkertor]

Up 5 degrees in an hour and a half, after dark, in late January.

Now 58 F and 99%

Where you located, mate ?

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230048Z - 230145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT
REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR.

AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW
ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS
HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z
LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD
OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN
EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33599294 34599229 35819144 36129113 36209053 35869026
34919056 33629133 33479170 33309213 33449260 33599294

[CrazyC83]

No upgrade to high risk.

SPC AC 230031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
AR...NRN-CNTRL MS...NW AL...WRN/CNTRL TN...SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IND
AND WRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD WITH A RAPID INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE LAST HOUR IN CNTRL AR. THIS IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS BANDED CONVECTION IN CNTRL AR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S F RESULTING IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA SWD ACROSS NRN
MS. THIS COMBINED WITH 55 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR FROM AROUND THE MO BOOTHEEL SWD ACROSS
THE MEMPHIS AREA INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS. AS A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS
ORGANIZES...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH A
SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES
COULD PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING FROM WRN TN SWD INTO NCNTRL MS AND
WRN AL WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE LINE OR AT THE SRN
END OF THE LINE. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO
EXIST ALONG MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE SQUALL-LINE AND SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.
OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGES FOR THE 01Z OUTLOOK ARE TO
ADD THUNDER BACK ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY AND TO REMOVE THUNDER
ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX.

..BROYLES.. 01/23/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0055Z (7:55PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

Decent stream by Mr. Carter here.

[Bunkertor]

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audi ... eedId=5167

[vbhoutex]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
716 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARC053-069-085-119-230130-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120123T0130Z/
GRANT AR-JEFFERSON AR-LONOKE AR-PULASKI AR-
716 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...
SOUTH CENTRAL LONOKE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN GRANT
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST...

AT 713 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND...OR
18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO INCLUDE...
REDFIELD... KEO... HENSLEY ISLAND...
ENGLAND... WRIGHT... TUCKER...
TOMBERLIN... SHERRILL... SEATON...
PETTUS... JEFFERSON... HENSLEY...
GETHSEMANE... COY... BLAKEMORE...
ALLPORT... WHITE BLUFF... WAMPOO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[vbhoutex]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
711 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARC063-067-145-147-230145-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120123T0145Z/
INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
711 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WOODRUFF...NORTHEASTERN WHITE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CST...

AT 708 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELL...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
STEPROCK... RUSSELL... BALD KNOB...
VELVET RIDGE... THIDA... SUNNYDALE...
PROVIDENCE... POSSUM GRAPE... HEFFINGTON...
GRAY... FITZHUGH... DENMARK...
BRADFORD... WRIGHTS CORNER... TEAGUE LAKE...
STEVENS CREEK... RUSSELL MTN... MILL LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM

[CrazyC83]

Nasty cell southeast of Little Rock. It could put an intense tornado down at any time.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the radar...a little more lining up is needed, but the cell with the funnel cloud will probably have a confirmed tornado in the next 5 minutes or so.

[cycloneye]

Look north of Pine Bluff.