ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Australian's 1/4/12 update

La Nina is still holding firm according to their update.

La Niña persists over Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 4 January | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

La Niña conditions continue over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña may be close to its peak, with a gradual decline expected over the remainder of the austral summer and early autumn.

Climate indicators of ENSO continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. Despite some cooling (i.e. strengthening of the La Niña pattern) at the surface of the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures remain less extreme (i.e., warmer) than at the same time in 2010-11. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña also strengthened slightly over the last fortnight, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monthly December value of +23 being the highest value since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in autumn 2011.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The subsurface waters in the Pacific continue to be cold. The warmer waters remain in the Western Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center January Update

Weak to Moderate La Nina thru early Spring and then dissipates between March and May are the headlines of this January update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern spring 2012.

During December 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with La Niña continued across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly SST index in the Niño-3.4 region remained near -1.0oC throughout the month (Fig. 2), indicating a weak to moderate La Niña. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies strengthened across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), reflecting a large area of below-average temperatures in the subsurface (Fig. 4). In the atmosphere, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds strengthened over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific and enhanced over northern Australia and parts of Indonesia and the Philippine Islands (Fig. 5). Consistent with these conditions, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also strengthened. This evolution is consistent with past events, in which the atmospheric components of La Niña become strongest and most well-defined during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Collectively, the ongoing oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the continuation of a weak to moderate La Niña.

A majority of models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to peak during the December – February season, and then to continue into early Northern Hemisphere spring season before dissipating during the March to May period (Fig. 6). A slight majority of models predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average SST anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9oC) this winter, while several others predict a moderate-strength episode (anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region between -1.0 and -1.4oC). The latest observations, combined with model forecasts, suggest that La Niña will be of weak-to-moderate strength this winter, and will continue thereafter as a weak event until it likely dissipates sometime between March and May.

[WeatherGuesser]

So does that mean warm Spring, hot Summer? Cool Spring/Summer? Wet? Dry?

And I'm not the least bit interested in what "JB Sez" so please don't quote him in reply to this question.

[cycloneye]

So does that mean warm Spring, hot Summer? Cool Spring/Summer? Wet? Dry?

And I'm not the least bit interested in what "JB Sez" so please don't quote him in reply to this question.

Since this thread is at Talking Tropics forum,it means the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season may be active or not depending if it's Neutral ENSO or El Nino develops by the Summer or fall.

[cycloneye]

The daily SOI index has been going down in the past few days and that signals La Nina is weakening.

7 Jan 2012 1010.53 1009.35 -16.15

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/9/12 weekly update

No changes from last week's data at Nino 3.4 area. The daily SOI index stopped the downward trend at least for now.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/


Last Week's update

Niño 4= -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.9ºC

This Week's update

Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI's have been steady well below Nina levels for a substantial period now. I bet by month's end we'll see a dramatic rise in SST's (relative to what they are now) and La Nina on the brink of collapse, just my guess

[cycloneye]

La Nina is still hanging on quite good if you see how the subsurface waters are doing. The big question is when La Nina goes away during the late Spring timeframe,how fast it goes and when Neutral conditions take control,if it stays or goes away to let El Nino arrive during the Summer and Fall months.

[cycloneye]

The Aussies Enso model (POAMA) forecasts in the January update neutral conditions going thru the June,July and August timeframe. Let's see if the next batch of forecasts by this and other models stay with this scenario or there are changes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml

[Rgv20]

Euro calling for El Nino as we head until the heart of Atlantic Tropical Activity.....My gut tells me it may be a bit overzealous on El Nino returning by the Summer.

[cycloneye]

Rgv20,Euro is sandwitched between two models that call for Cool Neutral above and below your post Here is the CFS (NCEP) model.



However,the new version of the CFS model is a tad warmer going to Warm Neutral around the Peak of the season.

[dexterlabio]

Based on the trend shown in the ENSO forecast, I think a weak episode of El Nino is possible to start in November or December. Though I believe that the remaining months of the year after this ongoing La Nina will be neutral.

[cycloneye]

The January update of the ENSO models shows Neutral conditions during the August,September and October period,but it also shows El Nino creeping up slowly. It will be a close call IMO about having at least a weak El Nino during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Let's wait and see how the next two to three months of updates come out.

Code: Select all

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JFM 2012 97% 3% 0.1%
FMA 2012 79% 21% 0.2%
MAM 2012 52% 48% 0.4%
AMJ 2012 35% 61% 4%
MJJ 2012 29% 56% 15%
JJA 2012 25% 55% 20%
JAS 2012 22% 55% 23%
ASO 2012 22% 54% 24%
SON 2012 21% 54% 25%

- Made in Jan 2012


http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[cycloneye]

Since the 13th of January,the daily SOI index has gone positive,a sign that La Nina is still hanging on and not going away anytime soon.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[gigabite]

The la Nina is hanging on, but I don’t think it will be for much longer. There is a positive correlation between the 1983-1997 string of NINO 3.4 anomaly (the blue line), and the 1997-2011 string (the red line). There may be a bit of a phase shift. I don’t think it is more than 2 months. A basic graphical trend (the green line) indicates an up tick. The correlation coefficient is 0.55 between like data. I think that would better than a coin flip that in the next couple of months there will be a sharp up tick in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific.


Then there is the distance to the sun and the size of the sun, two major weather factors.
1. The Earth is close to the Sun, especially compared to last year.
2. The Sun is approaching its maximum

Off topic: Looking at this graph I think that whoever figures that the start of the 14th b'ak'tun, 13.0.0.0.0, was on December 21, 2012 (the winter solstice) missed it by 2 years.





Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WeatherWiseGuy]

We've had two years in a row of La Nina conditions. My gut instinct tells me that we would surely have at least one neutral year rather than going directly into an El Nino episode. I also did a little research and found this quote from http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html:

"Over the long-term record, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific diverge from normal in a roughly bell-curve fashion, with El Niño and La Niña at the tails of the curve. Some researchers argue there are only two states, El Niño and non-El Niño, while others believe either El Niño or La Niña is always present to a greater or lesser degree. According to one expert, NCAR's Kevin Trenberth, El Niños were present 31% of the time and La Niñas 23% of the time from 1950 to 1997, leaving about 46% of the period in a neutral state. The frequency of El Niños has increased in recent decades, a shift being studied for its possible relationship to global climate change."

So, I feel like this kind of confirms my thinking, but I could be completely wrong (that wouldn't be a surprise )

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/23/12 Weekly update

Nino 3.4 goes down to -1.1C and that is a little bit more colder than last week's -0.9C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Could be fools gold. I remember el nino held on pretty well in 09-10 going into early spring but it then faded pretty fast and quickly transitioned into la nina.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI's have been steady well below Nina levels for a substantial period now. I bet by month's end we'll see a dramatic rise in SST's (relative to what they are now) and La Nina on the brink of collapse, just my guess

Well boy was I wrong, not a shocker lately . Sea surface temperatures are rising though near the region but one can't really tell if it's really enso change or just seasonal changes for the south Pacific until summer.

[cycloneye]

The Weak to Moderate La Nina doesn't want to go away for now as the data shows.