11 PM DISCUSSION on Fabian and the Caribbean/GOM wave!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Fabian remains a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of Major Hurricane Fabian was located near 19.4 degrees north latitude, 58.6 degrees west longitude or about 235 miles east northeast of Burbuda in the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is moving to the west northwest at near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Fabian will pass north of the Leeward Islands, the us and British Virgin islands and Puerto Rico. However indirect effects will be felt on these islands in the form of very high waves, dangerous surf and dangerous and deadly rip currents over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 145 mph with higher gusts. This keeps Fabian as a very strong and dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such as the case will be with Fabian for the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward 50 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is still 942 mb or 27.82 inches of mercury.

The projected path remains the same by gradually turning Fabian to the northwest, then eventually towards the north and out over the North Atlantic. But the bigger question is not will it turn because it's obvious Fabian will turn the corner and head through the North Atlantic early next week. It's when will Fabian turn?? That makes the projected path go one way or another, which is either a good thing or a bad thing. The good thing is, the sooner this hurricane turns to the northwest then north, the better off the east coast will be because we'll be just talking about a fish storm. However there is still potential very bad news if Fabian turns either more gradually northwest or north or turns much later than anticipated. The longer it takes for this thing to turn northwest and then northward, the greater the threat of a landfalling major hurricane on the eastern United States. I suggest keeping a very close eye on things from Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach northward into New England where the potential does exist of a landfalling hurricane if Fabian turns northwest and north later than anticipated. But the best estimate would be to take the center between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda in about 96 hours or so. However we're still 4-5 days away from direct or indirect impact on the eastern United States. So it's important to monitor this one carefully just in case!!!

In the northwest Caribbean, an area of convection, which formed earlier has died. A mid level circulation is evident on satellite imaginary. However all obs indicate no surface low pressure system over the Yucatan Channel tonite. This feature will bring heavy rains to the keys and most of Florida tomorrow and tomorrow night as well. Any tropical development will be slow to occur!!!

That's the latest at this time. Good night.
Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks