One Heck of a Turn!! Is it Going to Happen?

hurricanedude · #2 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:12 pm

NO WAY......THE STORM HAS ALREADY PROVEN IT LIKES TAKING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TRACK< THUS I FEEL SOME IMPACS WILL BE FELT FROM NC NORTH TO SNE.... HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION>>>

#3 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:17 pm

My answer is no, and it is because I feel that Fabian will probably go west of the official track. How much remains to be seen...

ChaserUK · #4 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:17 pm

with my limited knowledge I tend to agree with Hurricandude - it has continuously preferred the more southerly limit of its forecasted track. I reckon this could well continue. Does anyone have archived material/ outlooks etc of major hurricanes following similar tracks?

hurricanedude · #5 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:20 pm

here ya go chaseruk
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:25 pm

If you listen to the experts..they are "sure" it's going to turn..THIS IS MOTHER NATURE!!!! Anything is possible..so I am voting NOT SURE!!! :o

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:26 pm

I voted yes, it will "pretty much" follow the NHC track. I haven't seen anything yet to say otherwise. Sure, it may track a bit west of the forecast track, but that'll still keep Fabian well off the east US coast. But there will be effects - large swells.

But the track of Fabian is not an absolute, as was the case with Floyd in 1999. Fabian isn't going to be able to rely on a well-established and deep upper-level trof to turn it north, but a weakness in a ridge that is FORECAST to happen just at the right time. If I lived in SC/NC I'd make sure my hurricane supplies are all there.

ChaserUK · #8 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:34 pm

Thanx Hurricanedude - that is well useful!!!! Most appear to follow the usual curve away from your shores but one did seem to buck the trend - does anyone know what caused that?

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:40 pm

I voted NO....

The track of Fabian, IMO will be further west but the recurvature point or I should say, Fabian gets no further than 72W

SF

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:57 pm

I say NO...

Suncat · #11 Postby **Suncat** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 5:35 pm

I agree with you, wxman. I think this huricane has a very good potential of being another Floyd is so much as the final track is concerned. Could give the emergency evacuation planners from South Carolina to the North Carolina Outer Banks a real headache!

SacrydDreamz · #12 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 5:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:I voted yes, it will "pretty much" follow the NHC track. I haven't seen anything yet to say otherwise. Sure, it may track a bit west of the forecast track, but that'll still keep Fabian well off the east US coast. But there will be effects - large swells.

But the track of Fabian is not an absolute, as was the case with Floyd in 1999. Fabian isn't going to be able to rely on a well-established and deep upper-level trof to turn it north, but a weakness in a ridge that is FORECAST to happen just at the right time. If I lived in SC/NC I'd make sure my hurricane supplies are all there.

Very well put, I agree with you.. I expect it to generally follow the forecast track..

GalvestonDuck · #13 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:24 pm

I said no. Don't ask my why because I just tried to type out my answer and it sounded so darned amateurish, I just had to delete it.

#14 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:49 pm

I voted no also. I think it has to be as Kelly put it "one heck of a turn" for Fabian to follow to get out of the EC's way.

In Luis's post about the 5pm advisory on Fabian, SF quoted a comment from DT wxrisk about the feasibility of Fabian's location by 8 pm and I have to agree. There's still going to be alot of tweaking to the forecasts - and the storm is about 5 days away from potentially hitting the EC at all!

#15 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:11 pm

hurricanedude wrote:here ya go chaseruk
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

Thanks for that info hurricanedude!

In summary, only ONE hurricance - the 1938 Long Island Express has made a direct hit to the NE, one other crossed over Florida. History is against Fabian hitting the US.

Lindaloo · #16 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:12 pm

What are your local mets saying about Fabian Steph?

#17 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:28 pm

They're avoiding it. They pretty much pointing to Fabian and saying "and here's Fabian East of the Leeward Islands..." :roll:

I honestly get all of my information from the discussions here. When the local mets FINALLY discuss a storm and the people that I work with start to talk about it, I feel like I'm way ahead of the curve!!!

GalvestonDuck · #18 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:04 pm

Stephanie wrote:When the local mets FINALLY discuss a storm and the people that I work with start to talk about it, I feel like I'm way ahead of the curve!!!

Literally and figuratively!

One Heck of a Turn!! Is it Going to Happen?

Do you believe Fabian will pretty much follow the forecast track? Comments welcome!

One Heck of a Turn!! Is it Going to Happen?

Yep

Re: Yep

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