Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

Unfortunately, not going to happen anytime soon. In fact, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department is proposing the following:

"The second part of the changes is designed as a precaution against incidental transfer of zebra mussels larvae known as veligers. Veligers are too small to be seen by the human eye and may occur in water taken up from infested water bodies. TPWD is proposing to exempt boaters from the application of certain exotic species regulations provided all bait buckets, live wells, bilges, and any other receptacles, containers, or systems that could contain water are emptied prior to departure. This regulation would apply to Lakes Texoma and Lavon, and the Red River from Lake Texoma downstream to the Arkansas border and upstream to the I-44 bridge in Wichita County. Following these procedures would not exempt persons from complying with prohibitions against transporting exotic species that are visible to the unaided eye, such as adult zebra mussels, which may be attached to boats or trailers."

http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/newsmedia/r ... &nrsearch=

[Texas Snowman]

As for the water temperature, what I've understood is that the exceedingly warm water of the summer months (water temps into the low 90s) may be a factor that works against their spread.

Cold water, don't know. But I do know that zebras are incredibly prolific in the Great Lakes and some lakes up north and those water bodies freeze over.

They are a pesky, pesky critter for sure. Have turned the eastern two-thirds of Texoma into an aquarium (at the expense of the nutrient base). They are razor sharp (cut your line, your fingers, your toes, etc.). And they are present by the tens of gazillions now.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Unfortunately we could have used a winter like last winter again to really contain them, or course there is debate about that. But they don't grow below 54 degrees, I believe the water temp is sitting at about 50 degrees right now at Lake Texoma so they could try pumping them out but everyone is not on board with this for a variety of reasons. But Lake Lavon has risen over 4 feet and Jim Chapman has risen 2 feet, so if that rain actually comes through in early February we may be ok anyway on water in the northern burbs.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow...that's what our Texas Winter Weather thread has been reduced too.

We're talking about zebra mussels.

LOL!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Wow...that's what our Texas Winter Weather thread has been reduced too.

We're talking about zebra mussels.

LOL!!!

Well out side a few days in the upper 30's back in December our winter has been, well how can I say this "MIA", and there is NO real sign of any winter type weather coming to TX anytime soon. As a matter of fact, now that we just got a super soaking of rain, I'm going to be forced to mow my lawn on the next dry day.

[Ntxw]

Of course we don't believe it, but the models don't look so miserable since last night. Some cold to balance the warmth, though they want to shunt most of it east of Tx.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro Ensemble forecast of surface temperature anomaly out to 360 hrs (Feb 11th) and its forecasting above-normal temps across most of the U.S. for that period and significantly warming temps in NW Canada/Alaska. By hour 360, all the lower 48, most of Canada and even Alaska are above normal by 5-10 deg.

There's just no sign of cold air anywhere.

Disclaimer: You cannot trust model guidance beyond 4-5 days given the current pattern, so it doesn't really matter what the GFS/Euro are forecasting beyond that time frame, they're probably wrong. However, I like to believe them when they're forecasting warm weather.

[Portastorm]

Medium-range models beyond five days, the Tooth Fairy, the Easter bunny ... hell, I'd believe in Sasquatch at this point if it meant some real winter weather for Texas!

The one encouraging thing I think we can take from the GFS and Euro is that a ridge-trough pattern is supposed to develop in the 8-10 day period. Of course, if the ridge is over the Plains or Intermountain West, we won't see much "winter." If the models are off on the placement of the ridge, we may have something to talk about.

At least we're not seeing that zonal flow blowtorch! (looking for silver linings in the warm-weather cirrus clouds)

[gpsnowman]

Wow. Mid 60's to low 70's forecasted all next week. Vomit. The winter doldrums are setting in and no light at the end of the tunnel. The only thing that can get me out of this funk is baseball season.

[Portastorm]

Wow. Mid 60's to low 70's forecasted all next week. Vomit. The winter doldrums are setting in and no light at the end of the tunnel. The only thing that can get me out of this funk is baseball season.

No light at the end of the tunnel? Cheer up, gpsnowman ... you need to check out the latest MJO progs. Something about it moving into the 7-8-1 phase.

[gpsnowman]

Wow. Mid 60's to low 70's forecasted all next week. Vomit. The winter doldrums are setting in and no light at the end of the tunnel. The only thing that can get me out of this funk is baseball season.

No light at the end of the tunnel? Cheer up, gpsnowman ... you need to check out the latest MJO progs. Something about it moving into the 7-8-1 phase.

Yes that is encouraging Porta. But that is one of a long list of things that need to happen. But it is something. We still have a few weeks of hope left.

[wxman57]

Would that be the MJO progs made by the same models that can't forecast very well beyond 4-5 days? Same MJO progs that 2 weeks ago forecast the big Arctic outbreak in late January/early February?

[benrayrog]

From Pete Delkus at WFAA in Dallas:


There’s a good chance that the risk of a major Arctic blast moving into North Texas has ended. It can’t be completely ruled out but odds are strongly in favor that this type of a cold weather pattern will not happen for the remainder of this winter.
The weather pattern has kept the majority of the really cold Canadian air out of the U.S. for most of the winter wea...ther. We did see cold air across the far northern U.S. about a week ago, but since then that really cold air has retreated back toward Alaska and we’ll likely see this trend continue over the next 10 days to two weeks as most of Canada see temps well above normal.
Since this is our source for arctic air (Canada) and the forecast weather pattern shows no sign of change, the risk for a significant Arctic push of cold air across the Lone Star State has just about evaporated.

[Portastorm]

Would that be the MJO progs made by the same models that can't forecast very well beyond 4-5 days? Same MJO progs that 2 weeks ago forecast the big Arctic outbreak in late January/early February?

It's got to be right one of these times, doesn't it?!

Don't you have a 30-mile bike ride to do or something?! Why don't you be a good sport and take the pin out of the Winter Weather voodoo doll for just a few weeks. Then you can put it back in and everyone gets an early spring.

[wxman57]

It'll be quite a bit too cold for my taste this weekend, though I'll bundle up in tights and a very warm jersey and get in 30-40 miles each day. At least it'll be sunny. It's easier to tolerate this extreme cold when it's sunny. Hoping for some nice 80+ temps in February. Have to enter our February forecast contest on Monday. Looks like I get 2nd place (2 pts) in our January contest as we didn't have one cold rainy day to keep the high down in the 40s.

Checking climo here in Houston, 6 of the last 11 Februarys didn't see a freeze. I'm thinking we may not see a freeze this February. In 2005, the lowest temp in Houston (in February) was 42 deg. That would be fine with me.

[orangeblood]

From Pete Delkus at WFAA in Dallas:


There’s a good chance that the risk of a major Arctic blast moving into North Texas has ended. It can’t be completely ruled out but odds are strongly in favor that this type of a cold weather pattern will not happen for the remainder of this winter.
The weather pattern has kept the majority of the really cold Canadian air out of the U.S. for most of the winter wea...ther. We did see cold air across the far northern U.S. about a week ago, but since then that really cold air has retreated back toward Alaska and we’ll likely see this trend continue over the next 10 days to two weeks as most of Canada see temps well above normal.
Since this is our source for arctic air (Canada) and the forecast weather pattern shows no sign of change, the risk for a significant Arctic push of cold air across the Lone Star State has just about evaporated.

I think ole Pete is pulling the trigger a little too early on making a call like that....signs a pointing towards mid-month fun and games!!! Odds don't favor winter staying this like this for too much longer....winter should return over the next few weeks.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[gboudx]

I think ole Pete is pulling the trigger a little too early on making a call like that....signs a pointing towards mid-month fun and games!!! Odds don't favor winter staying this like this for too much longer....winter should return over the next few weeks.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

When Steve McAuley throws in the towel, then it's over. Steve deserves some credit for this rain storm we just had. He was talking about the system when it was way out near Hong Kong. And then when it was south of the Aleutians, he pointed out how the system would split and a piece would head south towards the US and would be our rainmaker if it all panned out. Kudos to him.

[benrayrog]

You're right about Steve McAuley.

[Ntxw]

Would that be the MJO progs made by the same models that can't forecast very well beyond 4-5 days? Same MJO progs that 2 weeks ago forecast the big Arctic outbreak in late January/early February?

You can see convection leaving the Indian Ocean and growing over Indonesia and slighty east of there. The MJO is not dead like it was a week ago, it's alive now. So technically the model's forecast of the MJO making a move and away from the dead at that time is happening just not as fast as progged. But can it make it to the international dateline is the question. Will La Nina beat it down? Or will it overpower the she-devil and set her into the coffin?!

Example, on the 19th I made mention in a post



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And here is the verification today, though not perfect the GEFS did do a decent job at picking up the move.



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[South Texas Storms]

What effect does the MJO have in our neck of the woods again? If it is in octives 7-8-1 does that mean a higher chance of rain here?