Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
What effect does the MJO have in our neck of the woods again? If it is in octives 7-8-1 does that mean a higher chance of rain here?

It's complex, tropical convection once reaching those octaves brings active weather to the region in which it resides (7-8-1 is the western hemisphere in general). Weather becomes active and stormy. In winter it means enhanced storms and sometimes gives a boost to a stronger than usual PNA+ (higher ridge out west into AK). In the summer it can spark tropical cyclones. This winter it pretty much has sat at 4-6, the worst position for winter (unless you are wxman of course )

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:
What effect does the MJO have in our neck of the woods again? If it is in octives 7-8-1 does that mean a higher chance of rain here?

The composites for 7-8-1 suggest below normal temps and above normal precip for much of Texas, except for San Antonio where it will be completely dry. (just kidding about the last part!)

[CaptinCrunch]

I think ole Pete is pulling the trigger a little too early on making a call like that....signs a pointing towards mid-month fun and games!!! Odds don't favor winter staying this like this for too much longer....winter should return over the next few weeks.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

When Steve McAuley throws in the towel, then it's over. Steve deserves some credit for this rain storm we just had. He was talking about the system when it was way out near Hong Kong. And then when it was south of the Aleutians, he pointed out how the system would split and a piece would head south towards the US and would be our rainmaker if it all panned out. Kudos to him.

I expect this winter to go down as one of the warmest winters on record across the U.S.

[CaptinCrunch]

For those looking for Winter I found her http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam where the high is a crisp -31F and over night lows drop to -40F

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
What effect does the MJO have in our neck of the woods again? If it is in octives 7-8-1 does that mean a higher chance of rain here?

The composites for 7-8-1 suggest below normal temps and above normal precip for much of Texas, except for San Antonio where it will be completely dry. (just kidding about the last part!)

lol that was pretty funny Porta! So if the models verify with the MJO going into those octives I'm assuming we can expect the wet weather pattern to continue for a few more weeks at least? I hope!

[Ntxw]

Wow, with all the good model trends no discussions? Just because wxman doesn't believe it doesn't mean we can't talk about it .

Models have been trending with a big ridge out west next week. They vary on how west/east it is so the big trough they are trying to dig does so as well. UKmet has been the furthest west, GFS was the furthest east but has trended west the past several runs and this morning shows a sleuth of precip for the southern plains (with cold). Canadian is trending west as well and stormier. Euro has been back and forth but has been digging this trough since Portastorm mentioned it in it's long range several days ago! Let's wake it up folks . MJO forecast continues to look promising.

PNA is already positive this morning, it marks the beginning of the end (temporarily) of Wxman's warm bike riding days!

[newtotex]

Since things are a little quiet at the moment, I was wondering what does this winter pattern mean for severe weather season? Will we have another season like last year when it seemed like places east of here got the bulk of the action, or will we see our share of it?

[Ntxw]

Since things are a little quiet at the moment, I was wondering what does this winter pattern mean for severe weather season? Will we have another season like last year when it seemed like places east of here got the bulk of the action, or will we see our share of it?

I am not a severe weather person, but what I've noticed is that gulf water temperatures can effect severe weather season. Even though it got cold last season it was only a two week period. End of Feb on was warm and gulf waters never responded to the cold. Year before was opposite and had hardly and was quieter.

[newtotex]

Since things are a little quiet at the moment, I was wondering what does this winter pattern mean for severe weather season? Will we have another season like last year when it seemed like places east of here got the bulk of the action, or will we see our share of it?

I am not a severe weather person, but what I've noticed is that gulf water temperatures can effect severe weather season. Even though it got cold last season it was only a two week period. End of Feb on was warm and gulf waters never responded to the cold. Year before was opposite and had hardly and was quieter.

I've noticed this too. A meteorologist from back home (Alabama) was actually talking about a link between te warm gulf waters and the active/bad severe weather they got through the spring.

[hriverajr]

12z GFS is a bit more interesting... hehe not super but a bit

[Portastorm]

Something tells me we will have much more to talk about in the near term. I agree with Ntxw in that all of the teleconnection signs are looking more promising and the longer range modeling is consistently suggesting the "potential" for colder, below normal seasonal temps beyond next weekend.

Full scale pattern change? Nah, doubt it. But I do think we could see a 10-14 period full of promise.

[Longhornmaniac8]

In the meantime, I get to go to Madison, WI for about 36 hours tomorrow. Snow is a possibility! Woohoo!

[Rgv20]

0zGFS 276+hours is a bit interesting as far as winter.....but I think I have seen this before... Going to keep an eye on the GFS and the Ensembles as to what future model runs show.

[Ntxw]

Canadian looks interesting late week. Of course it's a different solution every run still by virtually all of the models so meh. Does seem like there is a consensus we will be dealing with a potential storm (more rain anyone?) in the coming days.



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GFS much faster and more progressive



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[Rgv20]

0zECMWF is close to the 0zGFS on having the weekend system progressive and in contrast the 0zUKMET is close to the 0zCMC with a wetter picture for much of Texas next week...


0zUKMET 500mb forecast for Friday Evening.

[Portastorm]

Wow, both the 12z Euro and CMC look fairly chilly for next weekend. Interesting ...

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Steve McCauley ( weekend weatherman for wfaa-tv in dallas) is awesome on facebook. Has some really well informed forecasts and then very good explanations for why the forecast models are having issues. This week apparently we are having trouble with chaos levels. Which has been pretty much the same thing being discussed in the forum lately, but it's great seeing a television weatherman who actually has a great deal of knowledge to back up his forecasts and goes to the trouble to explain that knowledge. Not just a talking head for sure.

If you live in DFW I would highly suggest liking him if you're on facebook. I've seen some people discussing him on here before, he rarely seems to disappoint.

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville afternoon discussion.....A tidbit on next weekend Cold Front.

FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL GO WITH THE FLAVOR OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH
CALLS FOR AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN A STRONGER SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ONCE MORE. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TO MAKE TIMING CHANGES AND POTENTIALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND
SEAS WHEN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE RELATIVE MAXIMUMS ARE MORE
CLEAR. DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED IF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE POLAR FRONT IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

[Rgv20]

Well the CFS Weeklies did a complete 180 turn and now is forecasting below normal temperatures for much of Texas from the 4th thru the 12th of February. In addition the MJO is forecast to be in cycle 7-8 which would result in wetter and cooler than normal for the state of Texas starting this coming weekend...Stay tuned!




I know that MJO forecast are highly unreliable but cant ignore the fact that the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement.

[Ntxw]

Yep, MJO is definitely flaring up around Indonesia and just east. Legitimate wave imo. It will probably bring troughiness east of Texas first as the PNA rises, but eventually retrogress and effect more of Texas down the line.

First time it's looked like this since early fall.



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There are a lot of moving parts happening and many pieces to work with for the models to handle. Any runs this week should not be taken heavily as we have witnessed them do the past several days, even more extreme than usual. The threat of a storm or series of storms is growing as this week progresses.