Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks quite interesting in the medium range. A lot like 12z euro. Hudson Bay vortex, -EPO, split flow with a storm coming down California, and finally a big Arctic high coming down northern/NW Canada.

It actually begins the pattern after 130hrs, but I'm posting a bit later frame for us cold mongerers to frame before it goes poof!



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[Rgv20]

The GFS continues to indicate below normal 850mb temps in the longer range for the southern part of the state. It looks like the GFS Ensembles are a tad colder with the temperatures than the operational run....I will be happy with a couple of cool gray days.

0zGFS 6-10 days 850 mb Temperature Anomalies



0zGFS Ensembles 6-10 days 850 mb Temperature Anomalies

[gpsnowman]

Ahhh the memories. It was one year ago today many of us were wintnessing the beginning of one hell of a winter week in Texas. I know I got no sleep that night as I came home late form work to howling north winds with big thunderstorms, followed by a massive temperature drop and thundersleet. This forum was on fire. This puny excuse for a winter has offered nada. Yawn. Maybe we will get a February surprise like Portastorm mentioned earlier in the day!!

[Portastorm]

I'm fully expecting the King of Warm-mongerers to be posting this morning about how none of the medium-range models show any real cold to speak of for our portion of the good, ol' U.S. of A in the next 10-15 days. Because ... they really don't!

But your Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are putting confidence in the teleconnection indices (namely the negative AO, positive PNA, and an MJO in phases 7-8-1) that this sad-excuse-for-a-"winter" WILL change.

[wxman57]

Actually, for the February contest, I put 29F as the coldest temp for the month, thinking that IAH could see 29 degrees in 10-14 days. However, the coldest temps forecast by the overnight models are mid 30s for Houston on the 11th. The pattern could bring some cold air down into Canada, but will it be forced southward or eastward?

[weatherdude1108]

Now we know where the majority of the Arctic air is going:

http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-po ... more-10669

[Ntxw]

Nothing impressive on models today, still nothing much different than previous runs. Hopefully we can squeeze out some rain this weekend without tornadoes. So everyone in world (northern hemisphere) have all had a severe period thus far except the contiguous US. Save the best for last? Or it may never come at all . MJO is in phase 7 by this weekend if anyone is keeping track.

Edit: Missed the post before me ^

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hard to believe what we were dealing with in Dallas 1 year ago. Amazing. 74 degrees and beautiful today. When will Jerry have his deal with the devil paid off?

[Ntxw]

This is just wrong. Dead of winter Feb 1st and this sad looking map has but a few small pockets of freezing, unbelievable. What is this September?! May?!



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We'll have to admire the wall to wall cold in Asia from a distance...



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[natlib]

My mother used to call warm days like we've had a "Weather Breeder"....
Hope that means some cold air is coming or the bugs and weeds are going to be unbearable this spring.

[MGC]

I am sooo jealous that you Texans are basking in the 70's this afternoon while I'm shivering over here in this rain cooled 64 degree air.....MGC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah i saw some mosquitos just the other day. One night in the 20's will take care of that

[Portastorm]

Interesting/encouraging Tweet this afternoon from JB. Hope he's right:

BigJoeBastardi: Euro ensembles next week developing major stormy pattern with split flow. Arctic surface ridge NW ter to southern plains, active jet under

[Turtle]

What a warm January! Average high is mid 50s and we've gotten these high temps

40s or lower: 0 days
50s: 8 days
60s: 9 days
70s: 11 days
80s: 2 days

I don't remember having a January with so many 70s.

[natlib]

Starting to be some chatter about the storm next week coming up from Baja California.....

[Ntxw]

Starting to be some chatter about the storm next week coming up from Baja California.....

Yep it's been looking better as we get closer on the models. I'm not sure this is the storm though, it could be the one to initiate cold air coming down. Feb 10-20th as Portastorm has been talking about looks better once the MJO has fully propagated.

[Rgv20]

12GFS Ensembles are forecasting below normal Temperatures for much of Texas from Sunday 02/5 thru 02/11....Nice to see after January being so warm.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is showing an arctic high coming down midweek. It doesn't show well at 500mb or 850 but rather near surface which probably means shallow cold air.

Edit: It's not terribly cold, just something I noticed along with the incoming storm that the chatter has been about

[gboudx]

I'm going to change my earlier prediction for the rise in Lake Lavon from 4' to 6'. After driving in and seeing the incredible amount of run-off that is flowing into Ray Hubbard, I know that the same amount(or more) has to be draining into Lavon.

Lavon has risen over 6' from last weeks rain event and still rising slowly. 6' more feet to go to pool level. Let's hope this rain tonight/tomorrow raise it another 2'+

[Tireman4]

Somone will pay for this warmth. Someone will......



The above post and any post by Tireman4 is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.