ATL: INVEST 90L

[HURAKAN]

big props to the GFS for picking up this system many days in advance

[psyclone]

At this point it would seem that for FL the best chance for any rain of consequence from this disurbance would be confined to the key west and miami CWAs.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Nice convection, good rotation...impressive for February! Looks like alot of rain headed towards South Florida...a very October-like track, thankfully not on the intensity part.

[northjaxpro]

At this point it would seem that for FL the best chance for any rain of consequence from this disurbance would be confined to the key west and miami CWAs.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, this is going to be a nice, quick moving rain maker for extreme South Florida. The latest projections from the Miami NWS is calling for 1-2 inches for that area through Monday night.

[cycloneye]

big props to the GFS for picking up this system many days in advance

You are right about that. See how GFS started to show it as I began to post about it at Global Models Discussion Thread

[xironman]

big props to the GFS for picking up this system many days in advance

You are right about that. See how GFS started to show it as I began to post about it at Global Models Discussion Thread

Actually I think the GFS system is later this week around Friday, and the GFS still has it. That system is spawned by some southern stream energy that will be passing down in old Mexico. Note how the saved images say 2/10.

[Hurricaneman]

I dont think this will get a name, but if it strengthens enough it maybe be one of those added storms at the end of the season

[cycloneye]

big props to the GFS for picking up this system many days in advance

You are right about that. See how GFS started to show it as I began to post about it at Global Models Discussion Thread

Actually I think the GFS system is later this week around Friday, and the GFS still has it. That system is spawned by some southern stream energy that will be passing down in old Mexico. Note how the saved images say 2/10.

Yes,after seeing the dates is not 90L that GFS shows. It will be interesting to see if that one gets 91L status,but I am going off topic here.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012020518, , BEST, 0, 218N, 857W, 25, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models:

WHXX01 KWBC 052228
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2228 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1800 120206 0600 120206 1800 120207 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 85.7W 22.2N 86.0W 22.6N 85.9W 22.7N 85.7W
BAMD 21.8N 85.7W 23.9N 83.8W 26.4N 80.6W 29.1N 75.0W
BAMM 21.8N 85.7W 22.7N 84.9W 23.7N 83.4W 25.1N 81.2W
LBAR 21.8N 85.7W 22.8N 84.5W 24.1N 82.5W 25.3N 79.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1800 120208 1800 120209 1800 120210 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 85.4W 24.4N 84.6W 27.1N 83.5W 30.4N 78.0W
BAMD 31.2N 66.0W 30.6N 49.2W 28.7N 41.9W 25.3N 41.2W
BAMM 26.8N 77.5W 29.5N 66.2W 30.9N 52.5W 28.3N 48.9W
LBAR 25.9N 75.7W 25.5N 68.6W 26.0N 63.3W 24.6N 58.3W
SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 85.7W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



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[dixiebreeze]

Invest now on NRL

[HURAKAN]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Pinar del Rio Radar

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

From 7 PM EST TWD Special Feature section:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N87W 22N86W 20N85W
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N87W...AS OF 2100 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 24N89W
TO 18N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF WHERE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 19N-25N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. AREAS IN WRN CUBA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WRN CUBA AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THE MOISTURE TOWARDS S FLORIDA. LOCAL
FORECASTS INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.

[CrazyC83]

Can history be made??? Come on 90L/Alberto!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012020600, , BEST, 0, 222N, 854W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models:

WHXX01 KWBC 060027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC MON FEB 6 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120206 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000 120207 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 85.4W 22.7N 85.6W 23.1N 85.4W 23.5N 85.2W
BAMD 22.2N 85.4W 24.3N 82.6W 26.6N 78.4W 28.7N 71.7W
BAMM 22.2N 85.4W 23.2N 84.3W 24.5N 82.6W 26.3N 79.9W
LBAR 22.2N 85.4W 23.5N 83.8W 24.8N 81.3W 25.8N 77.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 31KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120208 0000 120209 0000 120210 0000 120211 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 84.7W 25.4N 83.4W 28.1N 79.8W 32.0N 73.1W
BAMD 29.7N 63.0W 26.2N 52.7W 20.4N 52.4W 15.2N 55.1W
BAMM 28.4N 75.4W 32.5N 60.6W 36.6N 45.7W 42.0N 37.8W
LBAR 26.4N 73.8W 26.5N 66.7W 27.8N 59.7W 29.1N 63.1W
SHIP 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 85.4W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$



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[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Unnamed 90L Too Weak 05/2345Z Atlantic

[Florida1118]

Since we all know its not going to grow very strong, I think we should all root for the little guy. Come on future STS Alberto!

[wxman57]

Looked more impressive earlier, now it looks sheared. SSTs near the low level center are 27-28C, quite warm enough for TC formation. I think it may have qualified for a TD this afternoon, but not now. Won't be around another 48 hours as it'll move across south Florida into high shear tomorrow.