95L invest up for NWcaribbean /EGOM

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Well I posted yesterday about this invest comming up today as the link I posted showed the plan for recon and the number 95L but will they go as planned today? Well I think that for today as I see the area they wont go but if the area increases this morning in organization maybe they will go.

[Guest]

No organization here - the blob has lost all its convection. I think it will bring more rain to Florida but that's it.

I don't think rexon will fly in it today.

[wx247]

I don't see a need for Recon. either. It needs to sustain some convection.

[Rainband]

I agree..just more rain..Something we don't need!!!

[cycloneye]

Yeah rainband more rain for that area but the question is if it will be more than rain with this system but I guess that time will tell.

[Rainband]

Yeah rainband more rain for that area but the question is if it will be more than rain with this system but I guess that time will tell.

At the moment the convection has quieted down..but there is a flare-up near the Yucatan that needs to be watched..we should know more in the days to come!

[rainstorm]

needs to be watched closely

[Rainband]

needs to be watched closely

Coming from you Helen.. :o That scares me

[ameriwx2003]

Yep, its wait and see. The Tampa AFD sums it up.. The conditions are favorable but something has to develope first.

FXUS62 KTBW 020639
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
236 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

THE GFS AND ETA ARE AGAIN DIVERGING ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE
DISORGANIZED MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. BUT
EITHER WAY A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HENCE I WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WORD IT SO AS TO
INFER THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THANKS FOR THE EXTENSIVE COORDINATION MIAMI AND MELBOURNE.

ALL MODELS AGAIN SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE ANTICYCLONE AT 200MB SO IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A LOW COULD DEVELOP PRETTY FAST ONCE IT
GETS GOING. BUT AS ALWAYS WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM I WANT TO SEE
SOMETHING ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GET NHC GUIDANCE BEFORE TRYING TO
FORECAST IT. SO EXCEPT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH LOOKS LIKE A VERY
GOOD BET, I WILL LEAVE WINDS PRETTY MUCH AS IS EXCEPT TO VEER THEM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. I HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED A COUPLE KNOTS BUT
WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO I WILL LOWER THEM A
FEW DEGREES.

LATE THURSDAY THE NEW GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE PRESSURE ON THE
LOW SIDE AND COULD SPELL EVEN MORE RAIN FOR THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE TIME FOR THAT ARK.

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF AND THEN MOVING THROUGH NORTH OF OUR AREA, WENT WITH
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STILL
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT TILL A VORTEX ACTUALLY FORMS BEFORE LATCHING
ONTO THIS LOW TOO SERIOUSLY. EITHER WAY EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN CLIMO ON THE HIGHS FOR EACH DAY BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION MLB, MIA, TLH AND JAX

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA 087/075 087/075 7386
FMY 087/075 087/076 7386
GIF 088/075 088/074 7386
SRQ 086/076 086/076 7386
BKV 087/075 086/074 7386

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.

DS/RJS



[alicia-w]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

sure looks like it could do something...

[Dean4Storms]

and the low won't form till Wed. once the ULL gets well to the SW of the North Coast of the Yucatan where the low should develop at the northern tip of the TW axis and get dragged NE by the trough.

[southerngale]

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2003

CARRIBBEAN SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A POTENT SYSTEM AS IT
GETS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. THE VENT ON TOP LOOKS LIKE IT OUGHT TO
ENHANCE ANY DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION...AKA MUCH LIKE GRACE. ETA TAKES
THE SURFACE FEATURE NORTHEAST TOO QUICK. STAY TUNED.


Sounds like they don't agree with the ETA but I wonder what they're thinking.

[ameriwx2003]

Kelly.. Hmmm thats interesting.. I don't know what they are thinking or why they think the ETA moves it to fast Ne?? comments anyone??

[stormie_skies]

I read that too....hopefully they are just being overly cautious....

[Rainband]

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2003

CARRIBBEAN SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A POTENT SYSTEM AS IT
GETS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. THE VENT ON TOP LOOKS LIKE IT OUGHT TO
ENHANCE ANY DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION...AKA MUCH LIKE GRACE. ETA TAKES
THE SURFACE FEATURE NORTHEAST TOO QUICK. STAY TUNED.


Sounds like they don't agree with the ETA but I wonder what they're thinking.

They were talking about the speed.. not the direction..the trough will take this "feature" NE but the timing is the problimatic issue here!!

[Rainband]

550
fxus62 ktbw 021837
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
237 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2003


Current/short term (tonight-thu)...convection is starting to fire
across the interior of Florida. Expecting this activity to fill in more
over the next couple of hours as it moves toward the west coast.
For the short term...wet weather is in store. The models are pretty
consistent in moving the low in the Gulf to the northeast and
merging it with the deepening trough in the southeast US. With
abundant moisture already in place...energy from the Gulf
low/trough system coming in...and winds shifting to the
south/southwest through the period...expecting numerous coverage
during the daytime through Thursday. May have to extend current
Flood Watch through Thursday evening (currently goes through 5 am
thursday) but will leave that up to next shift to see how new
models handle the situation. Will keep probability of precipitation just under climatology in the
upper 80s.


Extended (fri-tue)...broad 500 mb trough forecast to be over eastern
half of the US through the extended period. Heights do make a
recovery over the peninsula on Tuesday as the trough begins to lift
out to the north. GFS responds with surface low development...
perhaps a hybrid system...and drags it slowly east-northeastward
across north-central Florida on Friday. With nothing currently
imminent in the Gulf...have depicted a surface trough across the region
instead of a closed low. I do expect a significant amount of moisture
to be around with this feature...and don't expect a surface trough to
clear the Florida peninsula as depicted in the latest GFS on
Saturday. Have opted to keep surface trough farther north...across
central Florida...as upper trough begins to lift out aloft. Could see
locally heavy rainfall at any given time through the weekend...but
it's not possible at this time to pinpoint when and where. By
Monday...weak ridging should build back in with a return to some type
of easterly flow...and a bit drier conditions.


Marine...buoys showing southeast winds at 10 to 15 kts...which matches
current forecast. Have turned winds slightly to the SW and kept
increase in speed over the next couple of days. This remains under
highlight criteria through the end of the period.


Fire weather...no concerns.


Thanks for coordination mia and mlb.


Preliminary numbers:
tpa 075/087 075/087 3757
fmy 075/087 076/087 3757
gif 075/088 074/087 3757
srq 076/086 076/086